The Air Force may be underestimating the costs of fixing its computer systems before the turn of the century, according to a new General Accounting Office report. The challenges facing the Air Force mirror those of other agencies as the price tag for addressing the year 2000 problem across the federal government steadily grows.
The Air Force estimates it will spend about $405 million on year 2000 fixes to 2,944 computer systems. The service expects to spend another $70 million to $90 million to fix telephone switches. But these estimates may be too low. In June 1997 the Air Force Audit Agency identified more than 6,000 computer systems that the Air Force had not included in its estimate. The audit agency said 1,600 of the additional systems were mission-critical. The Air Force has only defined 550 systems as mission-critical.
In Defense Computers: Air Force Needs to Strengthen Year 2000 Oversight (AIMD-98-35), the General Accounting Office identified several other factors that may boost the Air Force's costs, and urged the service to continually re-evaluate its cost estimates.
The skill and expertise of Air Force programmers, the amount of documentation available to help guide programmers through complicated systems, the age of the systems that need to be corrected, and the labor hours and testing required affect the costs.
Agencies need to have accurate cost estimates so they can make informed budget trade-offs, GAO said. For example, managers of one aircraft weapon system program discovered that software equipment fixes would cost $42 million more than the routine maintenance budget of the aircraft. To delay the expenditure, the program office spent $300,000 to make a temporary fix. But eventually the equipment will have to be replaced, probably at a higher cost.
The Air Force agreed with GAO's recommendation to update its cost estimates.
The federal government's total cost estimate for the year 2000 problem stands at $4 billion. The administration has instructed agencies to pay for the costs out of their IT budgets--few additional dollars will be appropriated to help them get ready for the new century. That's why agencies need to be vigilant in their oversight of systems fixes and upgrades, GAO said.
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