House Races Still Close

THE DAILY FED

House Races Still Close

Two House Democratic incumbents who had close calls in 1994 -- and who have been atop national GOP target lists this year -- hold significant, if not overwhelming, leads going into Tuesday's election, according to new polls. In Connecticut, a Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research survey gives Democratic Rep. Samuel Gejdenson a 47-39 percent lead over GOP challenger Edward Munster in a rematch of the closest House race of 1994. But Gejdenson's margin is down somewhat from mid-October, when a survey by the same firm gave him a 13-point edge. The latest survey of 438 likely voters, taken Thursday and Friday and published Sunday in The Day of New London, has a 5 point error margin; 14 percent said they remained undecided. Two years ago, Gejdenson was ultimately ruled the winner by a mere 21 votes.

And in New York, a poll published Sunday by the Binghamton Press & Sun Bulletin gives Democratic Rep. Maurice Hinchey a 45.1-32.5 edge over GOP challenger Sue Wittig -- a 12.6 point edge, but down from a 20-point Hinchey margin in a similar poll in mid-October. The survey of 449 likely voters, conducted last Monday through Wednesday by the John Zogby Group International, shows an unusually high number -- almost 20 percent -- remain undecided. The survey has a 5 point error margin.

Meanwhile, other polls released over the weekend bore mixed tidings for each party. There was good news for the Democrats in Maine and Idaho: In Maine, a new poll reflected earlier surveys favoring former Portland Mayor Thomas Allen, a Democrat, over freshman GOP Rep. James Longley. The Bangor Daily News survey gives Allen a 53-40 percent edge, with the remaining 7 percent undecided; the poll of 323 likely voters, conducted last Monday through Wednesday, has a 6 point error margin. And in Idaho, a Mason-Dixon survey published Friday shows freshman GOP Rep. Helen Chenoweth and Democratic challenger Dan Williams in a dead heat: 44-44 percent, with 4 percent for a minor party candidate and 8 percent undecided. The survey of 405 likely voters, taken last Sunday and Monday, has a 5 point error margin.

On the plus side for the Republicans were polls in Iowa and Arizona showing two vulnerable GOP freshmen in front. In Iowa, Rep. Greg Ganske held a 46-41 percent lead over Democrat Connie McBurney in another Mason-Dixon survey; the poll of 449 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-29, has a 3.5 point error margin. And in Arizona's 6th District, where organized labor has unleashed a barrage of TV ads in an effort to defeat Rep. J.D. Hayworth, Hayworth holds a 42-32 percent lead over Democrat Steve Owens in an Arizona Republic poll published Saturday. Another 7 percent backed a minor party candidate -- while almost 20 percent said they were undecided or backed none of the candidates. The survey of 404 registered voters, conducted Oct. 26-27 and Oct. 30-31, has a 4.9 point error margin.

In Kansas, a Topeka Capital-Journal poll in the district of departing GOP Rep. Sam Brownback, who is running for the Senate, found Democratic nominee John Frieden ahead of Republican Jim Ryun by a 47-42 percent margin. In Wichita, freshman GOP Rep. Todd Tiahrt leads Democratic nominee Randy Rathbun by a 56-37 percent margin. And, for the seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jan Meyers, GOP nominee Vince Snowbarger is ahead of Democratic nominee Judy Hancock by a 44-41 percent margin. All three polls each surveyed 250 likely voters last week and have a 5 point error margin. A separate Kansas City Star poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday gave Hancock a 47-40 percent lead over Snowbarger. That survey of 432 likely voters had a 5 point error margin.