Base-closing foes focus on Congress as panel prepares list

After a four-month flurry of coast-to-coast travel and in-depth study of military installations around the country, the Base Closure and Realignment Commission will make their final decisions next week during four days of lengthy deliberations.

The fate of nearly three dozen major military bases and thousands of jobs is on the line, as lawmakers and an army of hired guns mount a final campaign to reverse the Pentagon's recommended closures.

Letters supporting individual installations are pouring in from disparate advocates, including House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., and former President Carter, who have written letters pressing the commission to save Connecticut's massive New London Submarine Base. Carter served in the Navy's submarine force.

Meanwhile, personal meetings with commissioners and staff are winding down, as consultants take to the phones and e-mail to make their final arguments.

But states will be shifting targets from the commission to Congress in the weeks to come. After the commission files its final report to the White House by Sept. 8, the president is expected to approve the list and forward it to Congress, which has 45 days to pass a joint resolution to disapprove the recommendations in their entirety. Connecticut lawmakers said this week they see growing support among members to vote down the list. Others are more skeptical, pointing to minimal support for previous attempts to disapprove previous base-closure lists. Still, with all the money and time invested, the fight to save bases will continue through the fall.

"I doubt there's going to be any let-up," said Dan Else, a national defense specialist at Congressional Research Service.

Any hope of passing the joint resolution of disapproval could hinge on getting support from Senate Armed Services Chairman John Warner, R-Va., consultants and analysts said. Warner helped write the base-closure law and is a long-time advocate of paring the military's excess infrastructure, but he opposed the commission's decision last month to add the Master Jet Base at Oceana Naval Air Station in Virginia to the list for consideration.

"He is the linchpin of this whole thing," said a BRAC consultant. "If he cries foul, with his credibility, people are going to say, 'I think there's something wrong here.'"

In the last several weeks, Warner has criticized the commission for not making public discussions between BRAC commissioners and Pentagon officials concerning Oceana. He also has argued that the independent panel overstepped its legal authority when it began to evaluate moving the jet base to Cecil Field in Florida. If he carries those arguments to the Senate floor, "potentially, there might be some traction," said Barry Rhoads, a lobbyist and base-closure consultant. "Obviously, he's a big dog."

Senators also still must consider an amendment to the defense authorization bill that would postpone base closures until most troops return from Iraq and the Pentagon completes a series of sweeping reviews under way. The amendment is sponsored by Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., whose state stands to lose Ellsworth Air Force Base. Similar language failed this spring in the House, but Thune said earlier this month that its success depends on the composition of the list. "It seems we will have a higher level of intensity" than before the commission completed its work," Thune said. He added that he will continue to support the amendment, even if the commission opts to save Ellsworth because "the rationale ... makes sense," he said.