The Democrats' Advantages

With the upcoming Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont contests, this presidential primary campaign will, for all intents and purposes, turn the corner. John McCain will almost certainly win enough delegates to officially put him over the top for the Republican nomination, and, although

Barack Obama will not have a majority of the delegates needed to nail down the Democratic nod, it would be almost a political, if not arithmetical, impossibility for Hillary Rodham Clinton to stop him.

The powers-that-be in the Democratic Party have largely been silent, in deference to the senator from New York and her husband, who are owed that much. But starting on Mar. 5, you will almost certainly begin to hear loud calls for Clinton to drop out of the race, to unify the party and to maximize its chances in the general election. Those calls, coupled with the Clinton campaign's inability to raise enough money to continue with anything but a guerrilla operation (which isn't their style), will push her out.

My hunch is that the general election will be a very competitive race. However, it's important not to minimize the Democrats' inherent advantages. First, it's extremely difficult for a party to win the White House three elections in a row. Indeed, consider the past 60 years: In four of the five elections in which one party had held the White House for two consecutive terms, that party failed to win a third one. This "time for a change" dynamic has predominated each time. The only exception was in 1988, when Vice President George H.W. Bush was elected at the end of President Reagan's eight years in office.

Going into 2008, George W. Bush's approval ratings hover around 30 percent, 25 percentage points below Reagan's 20 years ago. Bush's presidency has been marred by scandals, an unpopular war, and an economy that is just barely skating above recession -- hardly ideal for any party wanting to hold onto the White House.

Given that about 90 percent of those identifying with a political party vote for that party's presidential candidate (exit polling in 2004 showed that John Kerry won 89 percent of the Democratic vote, George W. Bush 93 percent of the Republican), it is not insignificant that Democrats enjoy a party identification advantage of 14 points, according to the Gallup Organization. That disparity is not a record, but it is one of the widest partisan gaps that Gallup has ever measured. Other polling organizations report a somewhat narrower gap. But any difference of 8 points or more is not good, given that the two parties were almost tied as recently as 2003.

Those factors combine to put Republicans in a deep hole. In January, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted by Democrat Peter Hart and Republican Bill McInturff showed that voters preferred that a Democrat win the White House 48 percent to 30 percent. In December, the spread was 14 points. In the generic congressional ballot test, Gallup puts Democrats ahead of Republicans by 14 points among likely voters, 15 points among registered voters, and 16 points among all adults.

Finally, there's the money gap, with Democratic fundraising exceeding the GOP's at almost every level. The Democrats' financial superiority is new territory. One question to keep in mind is whether this gives them a big advantage or simply minimizes a traditional Democratic disadvantage.

These factors are weighed even before any specifics about the candidates are taken into account. For Obama, how important will be voters' perceptions of his youthful appearance and relatively thin resume? Is he ready to be commander-in-chief? Will Democrats or Republicans fill in the blank sections of Obama's image and record?

What about McCain's age, or his close identification with the Iraq war? Does the Republican's extensive background on foreign policy and national security issues give him a strong advantage, or will voters devalue experience as an asset? Does the "change" dynamic extend beyond Democrats and into the ranks of independents and Republicans who are weak on party identification?

Those are the questions that will be answered in the campaign.