Judgment Calls

If we've learned anything in political journalism this year, it should be that absolutes are absolutely to be avoided.

Hillary Rodham Clinton might well win more delegates than Barack Obama in the April 22 Pennsylvania primary. And it is plausible that she could close in on her rival by winning "mulligan," or rerun, primaries in Florida and Michigan as well as some of the other contests scheduled between now and early June. But can Clinton sufficiently narrow the gap that the superdelegates would be willing to break a virtual tie in her favor? It's certainly possible, although still a bit of a long shot.

Superdelegates are elected or party officials and top activists who, notwithstanding other preferences, have two motivations. First, they really don't want to side with a candidate who will lose the general election. And, second, they really, really don't want to back a candidate who won't win the nomination.

The superdelegates almost certainly would balk at overturning a clear lead in pledged delegates, but if the Obama-Clinton contest is a dead heat at the conclusion of the last primaries and caucuses -- say the candidates are within 60 or 70 delegates of each other -- the superdelegates certainly could flip the outcome. After all, had God and the Democratic National Committee not wanted superdelegates to play a real role, they wouldn't have given them votes.

Superdelegates desperately do not want to back the loser in the party's divisive, two-way race. To embrace one candidate is to directly spurn the other. Pols who are hardwired into their party's presidential selection process today don't want to be exiled to the wilderness tomorrow.

More than anything, superdelegates want to back the candidate who has the best shot of winning in November. And that, of course, is a very subjective judgment. Different people can reach different conclusions. Heck, there are probably a few people who thought Dennis Kucinich could win the Democratic nomination, as mind-boggling as that may seem. Plus, it is important to remember that the superdelegate holdouts will make that electability judgment a few weeks or months from now. Who knows what will be different by then?

Today, the answer to the Democrats' electability question isn't clear. In the Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll conducted March 6-9 among 802 registered voters, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain led Obama by 2 percentage points, 45 percent to 43 percent; McCain led Clinton by, yes, 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent. In a head-to-head matchup with McCain, the poll showed Clinton winning 80 percent of the Democratic vote but losing independents by 7 points; Obama pulled 78 percent of the Democratic support and lost independents by 8 points. McCain won 91 percent of the Republican vote against Clinton and 86 percent against Obama.

In a McCain-Obama matchup, Obama won the Northeast big, by 19 points, while McCain carried the South by 12 points; the Midwest and the West were both very close. There were fewer regional differences in a McCain-Clinton race. Clinton, like Obama, carried the Northeast, but by a narrower, 8-point margin. McCain again prevailed in the South, but Clinton narrowed the gap (so much for Obama winning Southern states), losing by 10 points. The Midwest and the West remained very close.

This survey suggests, in other words, that it would not make much difference which Democrat is nominated. Both would run strongly, albeit a bit differently.

McCain seems to have gotten a bit of a boost from nailing down the GOP nomination. And he has consolidated his party nicely. He is now polling better among Republicans than either Democrat does among Democrats. In terms of the general election, conservative and GOP establishment disaffection with McCain has been grossly exaggerated. The general election will be a close race, regardless of which Democrat gets nominated.

At the moment, the odds are probably about 3-1 that Obama will win the nomination. But, hey, that's today, when his prospects are different from what they were two weeks ago and perhaps different from what they will be two weeks from now. What an absolutely amazing year.