Running on Values

August 28, 1996

THE DAILY FED

Running on Values

To those who have been watching closely, it has become increasingly apparent that President Clinton is running a campaign quite different from what American voters have come to expect of a Democratic President seeking a second term.

The difference is a reflection of the times and, more to the point, of polling data White House strategists are studying every night.

Clinton's advisers are particularly intrigued by recent findings that the percentage of Americans who believe the country is ``headed in the right direction'' or ``on the right track'' has suddenly increased from 36 to 44 and now exceeds the percentage who believe the country is ``on the wrong track.''

That change apparently is a product of the President's emphasis on what politicians call ``values'' issues rather than on significant spending or elaborate legislative proposals.

As President, Clinton can launch some initiatives simply by executive order. That is the case, for example, with his announced plan to discourage teenage smoking--a scheme that ultimately will have to be approved by the courts but is clearly popular for the moment.

Some of his other initiatives involve modest public spending and cooperation with the private sector, as with his proposal to provide--with industry help--cellular telephones for every police patrol car in the nation.

In still other instances, the President has simply put himself on record endorsing an idea that appeals to voters, as when he supported the idea of uniforms for schoolchildren and curfews on youth.

Juxtaposed against the poll findings about the country being on the right track are other results showing that Republican nominee Robert Dole's principal campaign proposal--for a 15 per cent tax cut--has begun to lose some steam with the electorate as it is examined more closely.

What is most striking about the Clinton strategy right now is how closely it resembles the approach that cultural conservatives in the Republican Party have been urging on their own ticket. Their theory all along has been that ``family values,'' not economic fears, are the first concern of voters.

The critical difference, however, is that the Religious Right's list of priorities--a ban on all abortions and limits on homosexual rights, for example--is highly controversial. By contrast, it is hard to imagine who is favor of encouraging youngsters to smoke.

The most significant characteristic of the Clinton initiatives may be that they are less government-oriented than, for instance, Dole's plans for balancing the budget while reducing taxes. There is a mountain of polling data showing that voters don't trust any candidate to keep his promises on taxes.

The White House strategy has become inceasingly obvious as Clinton has used the week before the convention and now his train trip through the Midwest to choose a different topic every day for new emphasis.

Moreover, that strategy appears to be working. Although Dole realized a bounce from the Republican convention, the President now leads by about 12 percentage points in both published and private tracking polls, including those made for the White House. Clinton had been 18-20 points ahead before Dole outlined his tax plan and named Jack F. Kemp as his running mate, then dropped to a 7-point lead just after the convention in San Diego.

Dole's failure to reap more of a gain from his convention has persuaded leading Democratic analysts, including those inside the campaign, that Clinton is probably home free in the Nov. 5 general election. Increasingly the question has become whether Clinton may win by a wide enough margin to allow the Democrats to recapture control of the House and even possibly the Senate.

Clinton himself is said to be focused intensely on winning with more than 50 per cent of the vote despite the presence of Ross Perot on the Nov. 5 ballot, a goal that appears within sight right now. The President has always chafed at the Republican contention that he lacked a mandate in his first term because he won with only 43 per cent, to 38 for George Bush and 19 for Perot--a complaint Republicans never made when Richard M. Nixon won in 1968 with 43 per cent when George C. Wallace was a third- party candidate.

But if Clinton is going to achieve his goal, he will do so without advancing the kind of Grand Plans that have been the foundation of Democratic campaigns in the past. This year the key word in both parties is ``values.''