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Why Trump's Immigration Switch Won't Move the Needle
August 26, 2016 The topic du jour is Donald Trump’s attempted walk-back of his position on immigration—roughly speaking, from an absolutist policy to one that’s merely tough. The operative question is whether he can strike a balance, enticing into his column the undecided voters that he previously alienated with his “send ‘em all...
The Trump-Clinton Race Is Not As Close As It Looks
May 31, 2016 The latest round of polls released prior to Memorial Day weekend, which showed Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a virtual tie, set off intense hand-wringing among Democrats, Clinton backers, and Trump detractors alike. They much preferred the polls from a month earlier giving the former secretary of State a...
Florida and Ohio Primaries Critical in the 'Stop Trump' Movement
March 11, 2016 In this screwball year, it’s dangerous to say anything definitively, but it sure looks like Tuesday’s Ohio Republican primary will be the make-or-break point for the “Stop Trump” movement. This is assuming that Donald Trump beats Marco Rubio in Florida, which seems a bit more likely than not. Then it...
The GOP Nod Will Go to Trump or Cruz, Unless the Establishment Sorts Itself Out
February 16, 2016 With every passing day, the odds increase that the Republican presidential nomination will come down to a choice between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Even with Chris Christie’s decision to suspend his campaign, three conventional, establishment-oriented candidates—Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Marco Rubio—remain in the race. Which is two too...
A Time for Culling, Not for Winning
January 26, 2016 It’s now less than a week before the Iowa caucuses, two weeks before the New Hampshire primary, and thus time for political aficionados to whip themselves into frenzy. People often become so preoccupied with the two contests that they lose sight of the larger picture. So take a deep breath,...
Next Phase of the Republican Campaign May Look More Like What We've Seen in Past Elections
September 22, 2015 One or even two opinion polls don’t constitute a trend, and it’s foolhardy to put too much emphasis on such a small sampling. But the first live-telephone-interview survey released after last week’s Republican presidential debate, the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll conducted September 17-19, will get—and deserves—a lot of attention. It...
What's Behind the Recent Political Upheaval?
September 15, 2015 Normally, the hopes and fears of the two major political parties are roughly symmetric. If one party is worried or pessimistic, the other party is usually hopeful or optimistic. There are occasional exceptions—say, if one side is increasingly optimistic about an election while the opposition is in denial or even...
The Donald Trump Conundrum
August 1, 2015 August is arriving, and we are entering week six of Donald Trump's rise—first into the double digits, now into first place—in the national polls for the Republican presidential primary race. While there are few if any experienced GOP pros or political reporters who think Trump can actually win the nomination,...
Crowded Primary Field Is Good News for Republican Voters
July 20, 2015 The situation in which Republican voters find themselves these days is looking more and more like the experience of someone visiting a Baskin-Robbins. Walking into the ice-cream shop, one is immediately overwhelmed by the choices afforded by 31 flavors, but delight soon sets in. One starts off with a large...
A Momentous Week, and a GOP That Needs to Change
June 30, 2015 The momentous events of the last week can be interpreted in numerous ways. But one thing has become increasingly clear: The Republican Party needs to change. One of the key organizing principles—an obsession, even—of Republicans in recent years has been their vehement opposition to the Affordable Care Act. This has...
