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Analysis and perspective about what's happening in the political realm.

Trump Sticks With Tweets and Insults

Re­pub­lic­ans who have been eager for a new, less volat­ile, more pres­id­en­tial Don­ald Trump should prob­ably settle in for a longer wait.

A full month after nail­ing down the GOP pres­id­en­tial nom­in­a­tion, the real-es­tate mogul’s cam­paign is still strug­gling to raise money, hire staff in key states, or even es­tab­lish a ser­i­ous com­mu­nic­a­tions shop to counter Demo­crat­ic at­tacks.

“Every day that goes by is a day lost. That’s true,” con­ceded one Trump aide privately.

The can­did­ate him­self, mean­while, con­tin­ues to let per­son­al griev­ances shape his cam­paign mes­sage. Dur­ing a re­cent trip to New Mex­ico, Trump in­sul­ted the pop­u­lar Re­pub­lic­an gov­ernor, who hap­pens to be fe­male, His­pan­ic, and chair of the Re­pub­lic­an Gov­ernor’s As­so­ci­ation. Her ma­jor of­fense: At an April fun­drais­ing din­ner in New York City for the state...

Hillary Clinton Warns the World About Donald Trump

Donald Trump poses a threat to America’s national security, and to the safety and stability of the rest of the world, Hillary Clinton argued on Thursday. Contrasting her track record as secretary of state with Trump’s lack of foreign-policy experience, Clinton made the case that the presumptive Republican nominee is, above all, unqualified to be president.

“Donald Trump’s ideas aren’t just different,” Clinton said solemnly. “They are dangerously incoherent. They are not even really ideas, just a series of bizarre rants, personal feuds and outright lies.” Her speech, delivered in San Diego, portrayed Trump, by turns, as menacing, reckless, comical, even pathological. She reminded Americans of the stakes of the election, and sketched out a dystopian vision of what might befall America if Trump were elected president: “Letting ISIS run wild, launching a nuclear attack, starting a ground war, these are all distinct possibilities with Donald Trump in change.”   

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The speech marks a dramatic escalation of Clinton’s attacks against Trump, a sign that the Democratic frontrunner is increasingly turning attention toward the general election even as her primary fight against...

Have Twitter Bots Infiltrated the 2016 Election?

Donald Trump’s Twitter game is incredible. His posting frequency would make an RSS feed envious. And each tweet, unlike the dozens of campaign press advisories sent every day, has a significant chance of showing up in the news the next morning.

But what is most impressive is his ability to conjure thousands of retweets and likes from supporters—on literally anything he says. Take this:

Trump was notifying his fans that he would appear, in 20 minutes, on a show where he is frequently interviewed. This is normal and expected. And yet more than 2,000 people retweeted this post, and another 9,000 favorited it. That’s not quite Bieber-level, but it’s still pretty good.

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The New York billionaire is undoubtedly popular. But some have offered a more subtle explanation for Trump’s virality. In April, Patrick Ruffini, a political digital consultant in Alexandria, Virginia, posted a spreadsheet of nearly 500 pro-Trump Twitter accounts that had tweeted, in unison, a message encouraging voters...

Why the Next President Will Inherit a Divided Country

One of the driving forces of modern American politics has been the kaleidoscopic reshaping of the electorate, as minorities have steadily increased their share of the vote while whites—particularly those without advanced education—have declined. But these trends have affected the two parties in strikingly different ways, likely to further diverge in 2016.

As the first chart shows, the change in the overall electorate has been steady—and profound. Since Ronald Reagan’s landslide reelection in 1984, working-class whites—defined as those whites without a college degree—have plummeted from around three-fifths of all voters in presidential elections to just over one-third in 2012. The share of the vote cast by whites with a college degree increased from just over one-fourth in 1984 to slightly more than one-third in the 1992 election (Bill Clinton’s first victory) and has largely stabilized there since.

Filling the space left by the receding white working-class constituency, minority voters have consistently grown their share, from just 11 percent in 1984 to 28 percent in 2012. If the 2016 electorate follows these historic trends, minorities would likely rise to 30 or 31 percent of the vote, college-educated whites will remain about constant, and the...

The Trump-Clinton Race Is Not As Close As It Looks

The latest round of polls re­leased pri­or to Me­mori­al Day week­end, which showed Hil­lary Clin­ton and Don­ald Trump in a vir­tu­al tie, set off in­tense hand-wringing among Demo­crats, Clin­ton back­ers, and Trump de­tract­ors alike. They much pre­ferred the polls from a month earli­er giv­ing the former sec­ret­ary of State a double-di­git lead over the real-es­tate mogul.  

What’s lost on many people is that any tri­al heat between Trump and Clin­ton today is like com­par­ing apples and or­anges. Trump’s nom­in­a­tion fight is over while Clin­ton’s con­test is still at a messy stage. Re­pub­lic­ans who backed one of the 16 oth­er GOP can­did­ates have co­alesced to a sig­ni­fic­ant de­gree, pain­fully pro­gress­ing through Eliza­beth Kü­bler-Ross’s five stages of grief: deni­al, an­ger, bar­gain­ing, de­pres­sion, and ac­cept­ance.

Many es­tab­lish­ment fig­ures, who I nev­er thought would come to terms with...

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