Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP

Analysis: Hillary Clinton Has the Most to Lose From Obama's Scandals

She'll have trouble distancing herself if his political standing worsens.

Conventional wisdom has long held that Hillary Clinton, if she runs for president, would be the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in 2016. But after a trifecta of scandals buffeting President Obama – fresh questions about the White House’s veracity on Benghazi, the IRS’s harassment of conservative non-profits and the Justice Department seizure of AP telephone records – Clinton's close connections with Obama could become politically problematic.

Some Republicans believe that revelations about the Benghazi operation could lead to unflattering details that cast questions about Clinton’s stewardship at the State Department. If there was any attempt to downplay the details of what transpired for political reasons, the blowback would be serious. But Clinton could have more to lose over the general tenor of scandal that’s lately suffused this administration. If the media focus shifts from Obama’s second-term legacy to second-term scandal, it would cast a cloud over those looking to capitalize on his coattails.

The last week has been rough for the president. As political analyst Stuart Rothenberg wrote Tuesday, a confident administration now looks “out of touch and unresponsive.” He warns if the controversies worsen, “many Americans will start to doubt his administration’s veracity and values.” The conservative narrative of the Obama White House as hyper-politicized and thin-skinned about its opposition is starting to resemble reality.  If that image begins to stick, it will be hard to shake off.

Clinton knows all too well about how scandal can intensify the public's desire for change, both when she ran her first presidential race against Obama in 2008, and at the conclusion of her husband’s second term. Public dissatisfaction with George W. Bush made Democratic party voters looking for someone disconnected from the decision to go to war with Iraq. Enter Obama. Nearly a decade earlier, then-Vice President Al Gore awkwardly tried to distance himself from his former boss in the wake of Bill Clinton’s sex scandal, despite voters’ widespread approval of Clinton’s policies. 

Until this week, it seemed obvious that the next Democratic presidential nominee would be running on Obama’s legacy. He's maintained his popularity with the liberal base. His job approval numbers, despite troubles passing his agenda through Congress, have been decent, hovering around the 50 percent mark. He appeared content blaming legislative gridlock on a GOP-controlled House in the run-up to the 2014 midterms, even repeating that argument at a fundraiser in the midst of the feeding frenzy Monday. Immigration reform could become law, though it will be hard to summon the necessary goodwill with Republicans given what’s transpired.

The Clintons expected that voters would welcome the equivalent of a third Obama term. She accepted the job as Secretary of State after a grueling campaign against Obama, recognizing the benefits to her long-term interests. Bill Clinton tirelessly campaigned for Obama in 2012, probably expecting some chits to be repaid down the road. Before leaving, she sat down with the president on “60 Minutes” receiving largely softball questions about her performance at State. Her own approval ratings, at least before the Benghazi hearings, were near all-time highs.

But by being so closely tied to Obama, she could reap some blowback if any of these scandals metastasize. If they do, Democratic voters may be looking for a fresher face, someone who has spent less time in Washington.

To be sure, if she ran, Clinton would enter a 2016 race with numerous advantages. There’s a sparse bench of national Democratic prospects behind her, with Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and New York Gov. Anthony Cuomo among those waiting in the wings.  Vice President Joe Biden, whose approval ratings have always trailed the president’s, would enter a race with similar baggage if Obama’s popularity turned for the worse. 

Outside the White House, many Democrats have been frustrated that the president’s political operation hasn’t spent enough time building up the party during his time in office, focused on his brand over the broader needs of Democrats. Obama-allied groups, like Organizing for Action, have taken up many of the responsibilities the Democratic National Committee normally handles.  The historic nature of Obama’s presidency hasn’t brought a new wave of black Democratic officeholders to Congress, as Politico’s Jonathan Martin detailed, despite his coalition’s dependence on them.

Clinton, by virtue of her service to Obama, was uniquely-positioned to capitalize on those ties. After a brutal 2008 campaign, she spent her time in Foggy Bottom cultivating an apolitical image – aided by some aggressive political handlers – while benefiting from the president’s broad popularity. The unusual void of top-tier Democratic talent made a presidential run all the more enticing.

But with scandal lurking, all those advantages could end up being for naught. Clinton knows something about being embarrassed by a president. Her political hopes may be disappointed by another.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.