Predicting Performance

Most agencies award points to job applicants based on training and experience, which are among the worst predictors of future success.

Assessment method Correlation to future job success
Work sample test 29
Structured interview 26
Mental ability test 26
Applicants describe job-related experience 20
Integrity test 17
Unstructured interview 14
Role playing 14
Situational judgment test 12
Reference checks 7
Grade-point average 4
Years of job experience 3
Training and experience point method 1

Sources: Psychological Bulletin, Journal of Applied Psychology, Merit Systems Protection Board analysis

Costly Mistakes

Hiring the wrong person is expensive. Costs include wasted salary, benefits, severance pay, recruiting and training costs, and hiring time, according to the Corporate Leadership Council, a Washington-based consulting group.

Costs of a Bad Hire:

  • Entry level $5,000-$7,000
  • Mid-level $40,000
  • Upper level $300,000

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