Three Key Questions

Estimates range so widely they're sometimes of little use. On the low end, some analysts have said about $3 billion of the $52 billion fiscal 2003 overall federal IT budget will pay for security technology. At the high end, others believe tens of billions will be spent.

What is clear is that the agencies with a security role, such as the Customs Service, the Coast Guard and the FBI, will exert the greatest influence over future IT budget planning across government. An analysis by the Government Electronics and Information Technology Association in October found that such agencies will pull away IT dollars from other civilian agencies in years to come.

Question 2:
What effect do continuing resolutions have on agencies' IT budgets?

Congress passed a series of continuing resolutions in the fall to keep the government funded. The resolutions capped agency spending at fiscal 2002 levels.

That put work on new projects on hold. For example, the INS planned in place to establish a foreigner tracking system, but was unable to begin work until Congress approved the funds to develop it.

Complicating matters, agencies' IT money still could be reallocated. If the United States invades Iraq, budgets could be slashed to help pay for the cost of the war, which the White House has estimated could be as high as $200 billion.

Question 3:
How does the government find new technologies?

Agencies don't develop much technology on their own, so they're dependent on the innovations of private industry. However, there are few ways to gain access to new ideas.

Large contractors with long histories working for the government look for small, niche technology firms to hire as subcontractors or partners. Agencies look to the large companies to vet new innovations.

Most officials aren't familiar with many firms that would like to sell to the government, so companies must constantly promote themselves to get attention.

The CIA's approach to finding new technology could be replicated in the Homeland Security Department. The agency supports a not-for-profit organization called In-Q-Tel that invests seed money in startup technology firms that are working on technologies the CIA might want. Several homeland security officials have said the new department needs such an organization.