Editor's Notebook

oodbye Jerry, Elaine, George and Kramer. Sayonara, Newt. Adios, federal budget deficit. These farewells could be the events of the new year. What are the lessons? Which is the most significant? Is there a connection or common thread?

Without a doubt, no correct answers exist-only "best" answers. So I believe we should have a contest to see who can come closest. The prize: two copies of our popular new book, The Manager's Edge, plus bragging rights in the federal community. The judge: yours truly. The criteria: subjective, but I'll give weight to the laugh factor. How to enter the contest: e-mail us.

Let me give it a shot. The end of Seinfeld is the end of a cultural phenomenon. Jerry has finally decided that his great series about nothing, or about the little things in life, has run out of gas. Lesson: Trivia no longer sells?

The end of the deficit in fiscal 1999, announced with great fanfare by President Clinton in early January, signals the end of "yada, yada, yada" about stemming the flow of red ink. Because the deficit has been such a deterrent to federal spending, Clinton's proposals for new programs have been pretty modest. Might we see now the end of trivia emanating from the White House, and the revival of more serious ambition among tax-and-spend Democrats?

Newt, the press speculates, may also have run out of steam, at least as Speaker of the House. So he's hinting, or so the media buzzes, that he might run for President, a race that's already getting under way even though the election isn't until November 2000. With his Contract for America, Newt achieved GOP majorities in Congress for the first time in most people's memory. Is it because the Speaker's power has declined that Newt seems now interested in the somewhat less trivial post of President?

These connections, it is hereby announced, do not win first prize. The reason is that the prospective demise of Jerry Seinfeld, Speaker Newt and King Deficit do not demark the end of trivia. Evidence abounds. You have only to examine the rest of TV fare to know that trivia still triumphs on the tube. King Deficit may be headed toward the guillotine, but his demise won't loosen the purse strings. Statutory caps on discretionary spending show no growth in aggregate agency budgets (except in the uncontrollable/entitlement categories) through the year 2002. So don't look for enactment of much nontrivial change. And Newt, even should he run and win, doesn't rise much above the nontrivial threshold for the simple reason that America doesn't care.

Evidence for this is found in year-end surveys of news coverage which conclude that the public isn't paying attention to Washington. For the second straight year, a national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press finds that not a single domestic policy or political story makes the "Top 10" list. For better or for worse, the public would say that Seinfeld's termination is more important than what goes on in the capital. But what say you?