Ahead of the Storm

Louis Uccellini forges partnerships across agency lines to improve forecasts.

Forecasting is an art in Washington. But it's always been about science to Louis Uccellini, severe weather aficionado, and director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction since 1999. Growing up, the Long Island, N.Y native would watch the nightly forecast of late television meteorologist Tex Antoine. Weather has been "a lifelong obsession, almost," says Uccellini, who co-wrote a 2004 book, Northeast Snowstorms (American Meteorological Society).

Uccellini manages an operation that spans nine forecasting offices, including the National Hurricane Center, and a $100 million annual budget. He has made more accurate forecasting, particularly of hurricanes, a priority for the research and operational meteorological communities. As a result, hurricane forecasts have been extended to five days with the accuracy of a three-day forecast in 2000. The federal government botched the immediate response to Hurricane Katrina, but its three- and four-day forecasts for the storm were on target.

Uccellini, who began his federal career at NASA and moved to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in 1989, has a doctorate in meteorology from the University of Wisconsin at Madison and is still heavily involved in research. But it's his managerial skills and ability to forge fruitful partnerships among federal agencies that have been hallmarks of his success at the National Weather Service. He made good use of his NASA ties in 2001 to create a NASA/NOAA joint center that assimilated satellite data for use in weather forecasting. Scientists now have immediate access to vital information instead of having to wade through red tape. "We look at the forecast as being local," says Uccellini, of the public's attitude toward the weather. "But to make that forecast for you, it all starts with a global forecasting system."

He has also pushed for better digs to attract more scientists to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and improve work life for the agency's 800 employees. Uccellini brokered a six-year negotiation within the federal government and with the state of Maryland to get approval for a new NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction at the University of Maryland in College Park. The self-proclaimed fast talker also convinced the agency to lease, rather than buy, new computers so they can get state-of-the-art equipment faster.

"I have my elevator speech down," says Uccellini. "You never know when you're going to get a manager, and you've got a 30-second period of time to convince them that what you are doing is the right thing to do."

As for his career in public service, Uccellini, 58, says government has been his calling. But, like any good prognosticator, he takes stock of the surroundings. "I never want to think of myself as going stale, but if I ever get an inkling that I am doing that, I wouldn't want to hang around just to hang around."