Pay No Attention To That Anemic Economy

• By Charlie Cook
• February 5, 2013
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Immigration and gun control have dominated the issue agenda for the past few weeks, pushing away, for a time, the previously dominant worries about fiscal issues and their impact on the overall health of the U.S. economy. But last week’s news that the economy, as measured by real gross domestic product, had declined in the fourth quarter of 2012 by one-tenth of a percentage point -- surprising economists who had expected the economy to grow by 1 percent -- brings these issues back to the forefront. In the third quarter of 2012, real GDP grew by 3.1 percent.

The release of numbers showing the economy contracting slightly in the last quarter hardly constitutes a hair-on-fire event, and they could be revised upward next month when the second estimate is released. But last week’s report follows two surveys indicating that consumers have unexpectedly turned pessimistic. Also last week, the Conference Board released its preliminary consumer-confidence numbers for January. It pegged confidence at 58.6, far below the consensus estimate by Briefing.com of 65.1. The confidence level in December was 66.7; the recovery’s peak level of 73.1 came in October.

The Conference Board numbers follow ...

Wimping Out on Tough Votes

• By Charlie Cook
• January 29, 2013
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Liberals enthused by President Obama’s soaring inauguration rhetoric and conservatives fearful of an impending socialist takeover should all take a deep breath. Much of what liberals passionately want and conservatives deeply fear is unlikely to ever make it to a vote on the House or Senate floors.

For the past two decades, one of the least understood but most important unwritten job requirements for congressional leaders has been to protect their members from difficult and potentially politically costly votes, either in committee or on the floor. Some of the most pressing policy issues of the day are never voted on or are so diluted that one would be hard-pressed to use voting records to nail down how any member feels about anything of real consequence.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker John Boehner both understand that sparing their members from casting difficult votes is now part of their jobs—and, in their caucus members’ eyes, a very important part. Maybe it’s a vote that would force some members to choose between their party’s base and swing voters, or maybe it’s one that would alienate a key constituency: Avoidance is preferred to pain. Even if ...

For GOP, Just Doing the Math Is Frightening

• By Charlie Cook
• January 22, 2013
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Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is preparing a push for an immigration-reform proposal that promises to be the first real test of whether Republicans have learned a lesson from the Nov. 6 election results. GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney and congressional Republicans won the white vote by numbers normally seen in landslide victories, and they also won independents. But Romney lost the election nationally by almost 4 points, and the GOP lost the overall popular vote for the House of Representatives. Although winning big among white voters and carrying the independent vote is necessary for GOP victories nationally, it’s no longer sufficient to win.

The white share of the vote in presidential elections has dropped 15 points over the past six elections, from 87 percent in 1992 to 72 percent in 2012. This trend has little to do with Barack Obama, the nation’s first African-American president. The declines from one presidential election to the next have been consistent: a 4-point drop from 1992 to 1996, 2 more points in 2000, 4 additional points in 2004, 3 points in 2008, and 2 points last year.

At the same time, the Republican share of the minority vote is getting grisly. Among ...

Congressional Republicans Are Striking Out

• By Charlie Cook
• January 15, 2013
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Just about anyone who follows baseball has seen a game where all the close calls seem to go one way, benefiting one team at the expense of the other. So it is with the public’s view of the fiscal-cliff debacle that marked the end of the 112th Congress. Neither party should take much comfort from the outcome, when negotiators narrowly averted a fall off the cliff. From the people’s vantage point, neither side looked very good—and congressional Republicans looked particularly bad.

Assessment of the deal itself was a relatively close call, with 45 percent of Americans surveyed by ABC News and The Washington Post approving the agreement and 38 percent disapproving in the poll of 1,000 adults conducted Jan. 2-6. Seventeen percent had no opinion or refused to respond. The poll found that 52 percent backed “the way Barack Obama handled budget negotiations,” and 37 percent disapproved—a positive difference of 15 percentage points. Just 31 percent approved of “the way House Speaker John Boehner handled budget negotiations,” while 51 percent disapproved—a net negative of 14 points. True, 52 percent support is not a rousing endorsement of the president’s handling of the situation, but ...

Chris Christie Reality Check

• By Michael Catalini
• January 7, 2013
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Last week, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie very publicly scolded House Speaker John Boehner for not bringing superstorm Sandy relief legislation to the floor for a vote. Christie, who aggressively pushed for spending cuts and pension reforms during his first year in office, unambiguously criticized his GOP colleagues for not advancing the nearly $60 billion bill, signaling a possible rift between the outspoken governor and House Republican leadership.

But Christie's criticism also reflects a straightforward political calculation. He's up for reelection in a solidly Democratic state this November, and it's in his best political interests to move away from conservative orthodoxy in favor of embracing relief funding that's popular in the Garden State. At this point, it doesn't matter whether there's any wasteful spending in the appropriation. Christie's biggest concern is whether the storm-stricken coastline will be rebuilt. His political prospects are closely tied to his recovery efforts back home -- and the more money, the better.

Indeed, his approval rating skyrocketed to 77 percent in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, according to a November 2012 Fairleigh Dickinson poll, up 21 percentage points from before the storm hit.

“Whatever it was going to be ...