On Politics On PoliticsOn Politics
Analysis and perspective about what's happening in the political realm.

The Wrong Fight in Wisconsin

ARCHIVES

The “if it feels good, do it” school of political decision-making experienced yet another painful lesson in its ill-fated effort to recall Wisconsin’s GOP Gov. Scott Walker this week. If ever there was a case of a terrible idea poorly executed, this was it.

Putting aside whether Walker should or shouldn’t have been elected governor to begin with, or whether he has or has not made wise decisions or, for that matter, whether Walker should or shouldn’t have taken after the public employees’ unions, the recall effort was a mistake. The exit poll of 2,245 voters conducted for the television networks showed that 60 percent thought that the recall mechanism should be used only in case of misconduct by the elected official, and another 10 percent said that recall elections are never appropriate. When 70 percent of the public thinks that something is a bad idea, it generally is—and shouldn’t be done.

Of the 60 percent who thought that recall elections should occur only in cases of misconduct, as opposed to, say, a policy difference, those voters supported Walker by 37 points, 68 percent to 31 percent. Of the 10 percent who thought that recall elections should never be triggered, Walker won by 95 percent to 5 percent. Only 27 percent thought that recall elections can be called for any reason; not surprisingly, this group voted by 90 percent to 9 percent for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, the Democratic nominee. Looking at these numbers, it’s pretty clear why President Obama’s campaign kept the recall effort at arm’s length. Even if one disagreed with Walker’s attacks on the collective-bargaining rights of public employees, this was the wrong fight. The exit poll showed that 86 percent of the voters had made their minds up before May 1, five weeks before the June 5 recall; presumably two-thirds or three-quarters had made their minds up long before that.

Compounding the error was the self-indulgence among Democrats of holding a divisive four-way primary on May 8, effectively squandering resources before the main event, one in which they were destined to be outspent.

The exit polls provide considerable food for thought. Among the 17 percent of the electorate who are union members, Walker lost by 43 percentage points, with Barrett prevailing by 71 percent to 28 percent. Of the 32 percent who live in union households, the Republican incumbent lost by 25 percentage points, with Barrett besting him by 62 percent to 37 percent. If rank-and-file union members and households are not pretty close to monolithic on this question, it seems like a bad idea to go the recall route.

The results also say something about the splintering of the Democrats’ New Deal coalition. Among the 54 percent of voters who are white and did not attend college—those commonly referred to as blue-collar whites—Walker won by 22 points, 61 percent to 39 percent. Among the 91 percent of voters who are white, he won by 57 percent to 43 percent. But it’s the gender splits that are particularly striking. Among white women, the Republican edged the Democrat by just 3 points, 51 percent to 48 percent, but among white males, Walker won by 62 percent to 37 percent. Among all races, Barrett won by 5 points; among women, he won by 52 percent to 47 percent. However, among men, Walker’s advantage was 19 points, 59 percent to 40 percent.

For organized labor, which is fighting for its place in American politics and the economy, the recall election should prompt some soul-searching about how this decision was made and why, and how such a costly and embarrassing episode should be avoided. Unseating Walker in 2014 will be more difficult now because of this ill-fated recall effort. A ton of money that could have been spent elsewhere for labor-backed candidates and causes won’t be spent because of Wisconsin. Although each side commits blunders from time to time, this was a big one.

The fact that the exit polls show that of the people who voted Tuesday, Obama led Mitt Romney by 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent, should serve as caution for those choosing to over-read what happened. The results don’t tell us so much about national trends as they do about the wisdom of when to pick fights and when to walk away. 

 
FROM OUR SPONSORS
JOIN THE DISCUSSION
Close [ x ] More from GovExec
 
 

Thank you for subscribing to newsletters from GovExec.com.
We think these reports might interest you:

  • Sponsored by Brocade

    Best of 2016 Federal Forum eBook

    Earlier this summer, Federal and tech industry leaders convened to talk security, machine learning, network modernization, DevOps, and much more at the 2016 Federal Forum. This eBook includes a useful summary highlighting the best content shared at the 2016 Federal Forum to help agencies modernize their network infrastructure.

    Download
  • Sponsored by CDW-G

    GBC Flash Poll Series: Merger & Acquisitions

    Download this GBC Flash Poll to learn more about federal perspectives on the impact of industry consolidation.

    Download
  • Sponsored by One Identity

    One Nation Under Guard: Securing User Identities Across State and Local Government

    In 2016, the government can expect even more sophisticated threats on the horizon, making it all the more imperative that agencies enforce proper identity and access management (IAM) practices. In order to better measure the current state of IAM at the state and local level, Government Business Council (GBC) conducted an in-depth research study of state and local employees.

    Download
  • Sponsored by Aquilent

    The Next Federal Evolution of Cloud

    This GBC report explains the evolution of cloud computing in federal government, and provides an outlook for the future of the cloud in government IT.

    Download
  • Sponsored by Aquilent

    A DevOps Roadmap for the Federal Government

    This GBC Report discusses how DevOps is steadily gaining traction among some of government's leading IT developers and agencies.

    Download
  • Sponsored by LTC Partners, administrators of the Federal Long Term Care Insurance Program

    Approaching the Brink of Federal Retirement

    Approximately 10,000 baby boomers are reaching retirement age per day, and a growing number of federal employees are preparing themselves for the next chapter of their lives. Learn how to tackle the challenges that today's workforce faces in laying the groundwork for a smooth and secure retirement.

    Download
  • Sponsored by Hewlett Packard Enterprise

    Cyber Defense 101: Arming the Next Generation of Government Employees

    Read this issue brief to learn about the sector's most potent challenges in the new cyber landscape and how government organizations are building a robust, threat-aware infrastructure

    Download
  • Sponsored by Aquilent

    GBC Issue Brief: Cultivating Digital Services in the Federal Landscape

    Read this GBC issue brief to learn more about the current state of digital services in the government, and how key players are pushing enhancements towards a user-centric approach.

    Download
  • Sponsored by CDW-G

    Joint Enterprise Licensing Agreements

    Read this eBook to learn how defense agencies can achieve savings and efficiencies with an Enterprise Software Agreement.

    Download
  • Sponsored by Cloudera

    Government Forum Content Library

    Get all the essential resources needed for effective technology strategies in the federal landscape.

    Download

When you download a report, your information may be shared with the underwriters of that document.