5 Reasons Not To Take Joe Biden's Presidential Ambitions Seriously

Vice President Joe Biden reacts to a comment by President Obama about his sunglasses. Vice President Joe Biden reacts to a comment by President Obama about his sunglasses. J. Scott Applewhite/AP File Photo

There’s nothing like a trip to South Carolina to fuel a conversation about political ambitions.

Vice President Joe Biden, who’ll speak at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner for Palmetto State Democrats tonight, earned a battery of such coverage. An influential vice president who has brokered budget deals in Congress and shepherded high-visibility issues, Biden shares top billing among potential 2016 Democratic candidates in a number of polls

But...

The obstacles blocking the possibility of a Biden presidency are numerous, and include the fact that he would be older than any other newly-elected president. Hillary Clinton could run and clear the field. The Democratic coalition has changed since President Obama's election, leaving Biden behind. He’s run twice before, dropping out both times. And just how bad will the gaffes get?  Biden said he plans to pursue gun control legislation again, even though he hasn't reportedly talked to President Obama about his plans. It was an episode reminiscent of Biden's coming out in favor of gay marriage before the president. 

Here’s a look at five biggest roadblocks facing a possible Biden campaign.

Age.

Biden will be 73 in 2016. He’ll turn 74 12 days after Election Day, which would make him the oldest newly elected president to take the oath of office if he were to win in 2016. Reporters have described Biden as “spry,”“smiling,” and “jolly,” in articles about his age as a way of suggesting he could handle the rigors of office. This is not a new issue for voters to grapple with. In 2008, when the prospect of John McCain swearing the oath of office at 72 was a real possibility, nearly half of Americans surveyed in a CNN/ORC poll saw age as a factor. Forty-seven percent worried McCain wouldn’t finish his first term.

The Hillary roadblock.

One very real obstacle stands in the way of a potential Biden campaign: Hillary Rodham Clinton. She is very popular among Democratic voters, so much so that she leads a field of Democrats with 65 percent supporting her, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this week. Biden is the next closest potential competitor, but lagging far behind 13 percent. She's got institutional advantages: A super PAC, Ready for Hillary, is already working on her behalf. This week EMILY’s List launched a campaign to elect a woman as president. We do not know if Hillary is going to run, but we are hopeful that she will,” EMILY’s List President Stephanie Schriock said.

Endless gaffes.

There are countless articlesYouTube channels and even a “Gaffe-o-Meter” that track the missteps and mistakes the vice president has made on a fairly regular basis. An archival Nexis search for “Joe Biden” and “gaffe” produces 20 results—and that’s just for the previous week. This week, Biden told a group of law enforcement officials that he plans to pursue gun control further—without having talked to the president yet. He also took credit for wining the support of Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu on the issue, asPolitico reported, something she probably didn't want to hear.

During the presidential campaign last year, Biden criticized his Republican rival Paul Ryan for wanting to raise taxes, wondering incredulous why the GOP would want to raise taxes on the middle class when it had “been buried the last four years.” Or there was the time he came out in favor of gay marriage before President Obama. But the vice president has also touched on race and sex in his public comments. He told an audience the included a number of black Americans that his political rivals’ policies would “put y’all back in chains.” Heonce told a group attending a Teacher of the Year event at the Naval Observatory that he’d “been sleeping with a teacher for a long time. But it’s always been the same teacher,” he said. Biden’s wife, Jill, is a teacher. (Whether that's endearing or not, you be the judge.)

An old-school Democrat out of place in a new coalition.

Obama won two presidential election on the heels of strong support and high turnout from the rising American electorate -- minorities, younger voters, and single women. That’s a phenomenon that my colleague Ron Brownstein is documenting extensively. The coalition’s characteristics contrast sharply with those belonging to the kinds of voters Biden connects with.  Biden’s appeal is greater with whites without college education. A WMUR Granite State poll from last month showed that likely Democratic primary voters with high school educations or less supported Biden more than voters with college or postgraduate degrees. Biden’s support was also stronger with self-described moderates in conservatives than with liberals, which suggests he could struggle in a Democratic primary.

Third time's a charm?

Biden has gone down the presidential path twice before. He ran and lost in 1988, dropping out after newspapers reported he used parts of British politician Neil Kinnock’s words without attribution. In 2008, Biden bailed on his bid after getting nine-tenths of a percent of the vote in the Iowa caucus.

Stay up-to-date with federal news alerts and analysis — Sign up for GovExec's email newsletters.
FROM OUR SPONSORS
JOIN THE DISCUSSION
Close [ x ] More from GovExec
 
 

Thank you for subscribing to newsletters from GovExec.com.
We think these reports might interest you:

  • Going Agile:Revolutionizing Federal Digital Services Delivery

    Here’s one indication that times have changed: Harriet Tubman is going to be the next face of the twenty dollar bill. Another sign of change? The way in which the federal government arrived at that decision.

    View
  • Cyber Risk Report: Cybercrime Trends from 2016

    In our first half 2016 cyber trends report, SurfWatch Labs threat intelligence analysts noted one key theme – the interconnected nature of cybercrime – and the second half of the year saw organizations continuing to struggle with that reality. The number of potential cyber threats, the pool of already compromised information, and the ease of finding increasingly sophisticated cybercriminal tools continued to snowball throughout the year.

    View
  • Featured Content from RSA Conference: Dissed by NIST

    Learn more about the latest draft of the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology guidance document on authentication and lifecycle management.

    View
  • GBC Issue Brief: The Future of 9-1-1

    A Look Into the Next Generation of Emergency Services

    View
  • GBC Survey Report: Securing the Perimeters

    A candid survey on cybersecurity in state and local governments

    View
  • The New IP: Moving Government Agencies Toward the Network of The Future

    Federal IT managers are looking to modernize legacy network infrastructures that are taxed by growing demands from mobile devices, video, vast amounts of data, and more. This issue brief discusses the federal government network landscape, as well as market, financial force drivers for network modernization.

    View
  • eBook: State & Local Cybersecurity

    CenturyLink is committed to helping state and local governments meet their cybersecurity challenges. Towards that end, CenturyLink commissioned a study from the Government Business Council that looked at the perceptions, attitudes and experiences of state and local leaders around the cybersecurity issue. The results were surprising in a number of ways. Learn more about their findings and the ways in which state and local governments can combat cybersecurity threats with this eBook.

    View

When you download a report, your information may be shared with the underwriters of that document.