According to a Congressional Budget Office analysis released Thursday, GOP congressional leaders failed in their twin attempts to keep total fiscal 2000 discretionary spending within the statutory budget cap and finish the year with an on-budget surplus so as not to tap Social Security surpluses to cover excess spending.
Instead, CBO's end-of-session spending summary projects a $17 billion on-budget deficit for fiscal 2000 and estimates that "both budget authority and outlays for discretionary programs will probably exceed the caps for fiscal 2000 by about $7 billion [in budget authority] and $17 billion [in outlays]."
But the agency also cautioned that, "in light of recent economic trends, the baseline estimates that CBO will release in January are likely to present a more favorable picture."
And, in a line GOP leaders are sure to point to as proof they did not fail in their goal of fiscal responsibility, CBO admits that "adding in the scorekeeping adjustments specified by the Congress would show the on-budget accounts in surplus."
But Democratic leaders and budget hawks of both parties have decried those "directed scorekeeping" adjustments as gimmicks that mask how much spending the fiscal 2000 budget contains.
Among the particulars of the six-page report, CBO concluded projected discretionary spending in the current fiscal year as a result of the 13 FY2000 appropriations bills will come in at $617 billion, or more than $37 billion over the outlay spending cap of $579.8 billion.
But CBO also estimates that provisions other than the five spending bills contained in the year-end package will partially offset that amount by about $6 billion. And, as a result of legislation passed this year, CBO estimates that the $14 billion on-budget surplus it projected for FY2000 will be reduced by nearly $32 billion, producing the CBO's new estimate of a $17 billion on-budget deficit.
In total, the agency also projects a unified budget surplus of around $129 billion in fiscal 2000-with a $147 billion off-budget surplus, primarily due to excess Social Security revenues, and the $17.4 billion on-budget deficit.
In July, the CBO estimated the total budget surplus for fiscal 2000 would be $161 billion, comprised of a $147 billion off-budget surplus and a $14 billion on-budget surplus.