Watch the Republican hardliners

Editor's Note: This week, GovExec.com is pleased to begin publishing Stan Collender's "Budget Battles" column. The column, which originally appears each week on National Journal's Cloakroom Web site, looks at the politics, prospects and ramifications of the ongoing budgetary debates. Collender is senior vice president and managing director of the Federal Budget Consulting Group at Fleishman-Hillard, Inc. He is also editor-in-chief of the biweekly newsletter, "Federal Budget Report" and author of The Guide to the Federal Budget.

The key to the end of this session of Congress is almost totally in the hands of the extreme right wing of the House and Senate Republican caucuses. If these Representatives and Senators are willing to cooperate with the White House on a number of predominant spending issues, then the chance of any government shutdown will be close to zero.

This may not be as easy as it sounds, however. The White House is pushing Congress on a number of fronts, and so far has given little or no indication it is willing to compromise. There have even been a number of prominently stated threats by senior administration officials about possible vetoes, including vetoing another continuing resolution.

The real test for House and Senate conservatives will be how far they are willing to go without getting much as compensation. In exchange for congressional budget concessions, the White House is essentially allowing Congress three things-(1) to get home to campaign, (2) to avoid the ignominy of the third partial government shutdown in three years and (3) to be able to keep talking about the Monica Lewinsky situation rather than its failing to make the federal railroad run on time again. This is a far cry from the tax cut that many fiscal conservatives want in return for their capitulation.

Emergency? What Emergency?

The biggest challenge this week for fiscal conservatives will be the proposed use of the emergency exception to get around the appropriations caps. According to the Committee for a Responsible Budget, the administration wants to spend about $14 billion on "emergencies" ranging from military operations in Bosnia and enhanced embassy security to aid for farmers, year 2000 computer problems in federal agencies and military readiness. The committee also indicates Congress may want to add $3 to $4 billion to the administration's request for the Pentagon, which in turn could spur others to insist on more for various domestic programs.

Earlier this year conservatives successfully mounted a fight against classifying the Y2K funds as emergency spending, and the assumption is that they will continue to do so. It is not at all clear, however, how far they will be willing to take this particular fight in the face of the practical needs of their colleagues. A tough stand could mean one or more cliffhanger endings for this year's budget process.

Remember, We're Usually Closed On Weekends

One thing to keep in mind as this week's events unfold is that, while the continuing resolution expires at midnight on Friday, Oct. 9, most of the federal government will be closed as usual on Saturday and Sunday. With the exception of national parks and the like, few federal facilities or services will be affected immediately if there is a stalemate between Congress and the White House. The real deadline, therefore, is Monday morning, Oct. 12. So don't be surprised if Congress works most of this coming weekend to get everything resolved.

"Black Ink" Nominations

This is the last week to nominate your choice for the first-ever "Black Ink Award." We can't yet announce who has received nominations for the award, but we can tell you that the race for the top five spots is very close. So don't wait much longer to nominate your choice for the organization or person who has had the most positive impact on this year's budget debate, as nominations will only be accepted until Oct. 15. Click here to designate your choice and then get ready to vote for one of the top five nominees starting on Nov. 10.

Question Of The Week

Last Week's Question. The most frequent answer to last week's question was that the last time the budget process was changed was in the 1997 Balanced Budget Act. While that legislation did revise a number of the Budget Enforcement Act provisions, it was not the most recent change. That occurred this year, when the "Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century" or TEA-21 created new spending caps for transportation and mass transit programs.

Congratulations to Bill Hughes of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee for being the first with the correct answer and winning the much coveted "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt.

This Week's Question. You don't have to be a budget groupie to answer this week's question: How many of the regular fiscal 1999 appropriations will have either been signed into law or sent to the president when Congress adjourns for the year? Send your answer to scollender@njdc.com and win an "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt to wear while watching the American and National League championships.