While many Republicans are touting new Congressional Budget Office estimates of coming federal budget surpluses, the new figures do not change the Senate's potential need to find 60 votes to pass a tax cut bill if it is not protected from a filibuster by a reconciliation measure or if it violates budget rules, a Senate Republican source said today.
"Nothing has changed in the five-year budget window," the source said, adding that the same procedural hurdles exist as before the CBO report was issued.
While the source indicated House Republicans have not officially rejected the proposal of Senate Budget Committee Chairman Pete Domenici, R-N.M., for a scaled-down reconciliation process, he said the House is expected to present a budget counteroffer sometime this week.
"Realistically, it's in the hands of the House," the source said. However, no meetings between the budget chairmen have been scheduled yet.
Two Senate GOP sources also said they fear some tax cut advocates may be structuring their proposals in ways that could be interpreted as tapping the budget surplus that exists solely because of the surplus in the Social Security trust fund.
"The administration would love to have the Republicans go after the Social Security trust fund," one Republican source said. The other source added, "If I'm a Democrat, I want the Republicans to go after Social Security."
The sources said the question of how much of the surplus is needed for Social Security is subjective and that any such figures could be challenged. "I don't think there's an easy answer to this, unfortunately," one GOP source said.
Meanwhile, political speculation surfaced today that a scenario could develop where House Republicans pass a large tax cut package without regard to the Senate's rules governing such bills. Under that scenario, House Republicans would be able to tout passage of a tax cut bill and blame the Senate for killing it. However, an aide to House Budget Chairman John Kasich, R-Ohio, said Kasich is determined to try to pass a tax cut bill that will be enacted.
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