CBO Predicts Budget Surplus

CBO Predicts Budget Surplus

amaxwell@govexec.com

The Congressional Budget Office Tuesday projected an $8 billion surplus for this year and said that if the economy stays on the "anticipated course," surpluses will continue to build to a level of $138 billion by 2008.

If the projections are accurate, this year will be the first since 1969 that the federal government will operate without a budget deficit.

Although private economists have been predicting a fiscal 1998 surplus for months, the CBO's estimate was the first official projection of black ink.

House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, attributed the surpluses to "fiscal restraints" put in place by congressional Republicans.

The CBO predicted surpluses would rise to $9 billion in FY 99, fall back to $1 billion in FY 2000 and then steadily increase to $67 billion in FY 2002.

Both federal spending and revenues are expected to total around $1.7 trillion this year, which is approximately 20 percent of the gross domestic product.

The CBO's projections come at a time when lawmakers from both parties are pushing to use the surpluses in different ways.

President Clinton has proposed setting aside any surpluses until lawmakers decide on a way to fix the fiscal problems Social Security will face when baby boomers begin retiring.

Senate Republicans advocate a plan similar to Clinton's, but House Republicans want to use some of the money for tax cuts.

In January, the CBO predicted a $5 billion deficit for 1998. However, unexpected "rapid inflows" of revenues caused a shift in the projections, the agency said.

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