Senate Outlook

Senate Outlook

Depending on the final outcome in Oregon, Republicans will increase their advantage in the Senate by either one or two votes after picking up three open Democratic seats Tuesday and keeping all but one of the seats they already hold.

A significant number of absentee and mail-in ballots remain to be counted in Oregon, where Republican Gordon Smith led Democrat Tom Brugerre 49-47 percent in the race to succeed Senate Appropriations Chairman Hatfield, with 83 percent of the vote counted. Smith appears to have a slight edge in the race, and all of the ballots should be counted by the end of this week. If Smith wins, Republicans will hold a 55-45 Senate advantage, rather than their current 53-47 majority.

Early Tuesday evening, Democrats believed they might even win back the Senate as their candidates appeared to be winning in New Hampshire and Maine. But as the night wore on, the Democratic edge in votes evaporated -- giving relieved Republicans the triumphs that increased their margin.

In New Hampshire, GOP Sen. Bob Smith held off former Democratic Rep. Dick Swett 49-46 percent; in Maine, Republican Susan Collins defeated former Democratic Gov. Joseph Brennan 49-44 percent. And in Colorado, Republican Rep. Wayne Allard beat Democrat Tom Strickland 51-46 percent.

The GOP surge also hinged on four open Democratic seats in the South. Democrats managed to hold on to their seats in Georgia and Louisiana, but Republicans took over in Alabama and Arkansas. Particularly painful to Democrats was the loss of their Nebraska seat currently held by Sen. James Exon. Democratic Gov. Ben Nelson led through most of the contest, but was badly beaten by late-charging Republican nominee Chuck Hagel.

Democrats also held on to contested open seats in Illinois and New Jersey, and managed the only defeat of an incumbent by knocking off GOP Senate Commerce Chairman Pressler in South Dakota. In that race, Democratic Rep. Tim Johnson upended Pressler 52-48 percent. Hard- pressed Democratic incumbents in Massachusetts, Minnesota and Iowa held on to their seats.

The Senate is likely to be more conservative in the 105th Congress, as even several of the new Democrats lean toward that party's right wing. And several conservative Republicans are replacing more moderate predecessors. Senate Majority Leader Lott said Republicans are "going to go forward with the agenda we were working on."

Lott added he is willing to work with President Clinton on balancing the budget and cutting taxes for families, but questioned whether Clinton would follow through on conservative election-year promises. "He talks about how the era of big government is over. We'd like to help him keep his word on that," Lott told the Associated Press.

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