Democrats this week have opened up their biggest margin to date in so-called generic polling on voters' choices for Congress, according to the daily tracking survey being conducted by the New York-based John Zogby Group for Reuters.
A three-day rolling average released today showed 38.5 percent indicating they would vote Democratic in their congressional district this year, while 33 percent said they would back the GOP candidate. The 5.5 point margin is the second largest Democratic advantage since the Reuters daily tracking began earlier this month -- although it is down slightly from the 5.8 point advantage the Democrats enjoyed in the three-day rolling average released Tuesday, according to pollster Zogby.
When asked which party they preferred to have in the majority on Capitol Hill, voters favored Democratic control of the House next year by a 3.2 point edge -- 40.8-37.5 percent. And even in the case of the Senate, where most analysts feel the odds weigh heavily against a Democratic takeover, voters narrowly favored Democratic control by a 40.4-40.0 percent margin. Both these outcomes are within the survey's 3.3 point error margin; about 900 likely voters were surveyed on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.
In the latest presidential "horserace" numbers, President Clinton holds a 45.8-30.0 percent lead over GOP nominee Bob Dole, a margin of 12.8 percent. Zogby said these numbers put Democrats in a strong position in terms of a takeover of Congress. "I use a 13 percent rule," Zogby told National Journal's CongressDaily. "As soon as Clinton's lead goes to 13 percent, you see the Democrats begin to tip over the top."
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