Promising Practices Promising PracticesPromising Practices
A forum for government's best ideas and most innovative leaders.

Election Countdown: Four Days To Go

ARCHIVES
Photo by: Scout Tufankjian, OFA

Following a brief ceasefire related to Hurricane Sandy, the campaign for the White House resumed on Thursday. Now, with just four days to go, the campaigns of Mitt Romney and Barack Obama enter their final stages. And though the campaign seems to never end, reducing young children to tears, it's literally just a few hours from being over. How is the race shaping up in its final days? Where are the candidates spending their time, what are the polls saying and what major developments have occurred in the last 24 hours? We try to package the most compelling information below.

The Candidate Schedules:

"The best poll these days," said NBC News Chief Washington Correspondent Chuck Todd, "is actually the candidate's schedule--this is what's telling us everything." Where Romney and Obama spend their time between now and election day gives us a look into what the campaigns are focused on or worried about.

What do their schedules make clear? Ohio remains crucial for both campaigns:

Romney Schedule

  • Yesterday (Nov. 1): Virginia—all day
  • Today (Nov. 2): Wisconsin, Ohio
  • Saturday: Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado
  • Sunday: To be determined
  • Monday: New Hampshire

Obama Schedule

  • Yesterday (Nov. 1): Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado
  • Today (Nov. 2): Ohio—all day
  • Saturday: Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia
  • Sunday: New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Colorado
  • Monday: Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa

The National Polls:

Following the Denver debate, national polling began a sharp shift toward Romney. Today, four days from the election, the average of national polls shows the race is all but tied:

Romney vs. Obama Nationally (via RealClearPolitics.com)

Methodology: Average of 10 polls from 10/22 – 10/31

  • 47.4% - Obama (D)
  • 47.3% - Romney (R)

Advantage: Barely Obama—for all purposes, it’s a tie. 

The State Polls:

In the race to 270 electoral votes, what happens in a handful of crucial swing states is all that truly matters. It's important to remember that the presidential election isn't one large election--it's a series of 50+ elections. What's happening in the critical swing states gives us the best look at what will happen on Nov. 6.

The Projections:

Nov. 6 Forecast (via FiveThirtyEight.com/NYTimes.com)

Methodology: Statistican Nate Silver's forecast model runs simulations of the Electoral College to project the probable outcome of a particular candidate reaching, out of the 538 votes available, the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Silver's model, which was very accurate in 2008, factors in national and state-level polling in addition to economic outlook and demographics.

Projected Electoral College Votes (270 to win):

  • 300.4 – Obama (D)
  • 237.6 – Romney (R)

Projected Chances of Winning:

  • 79.0% - Obama (D)
  • 21.0% - Romney (R)

Projected Popular Vote:

  • 50.5% - Obama (D)
  • 48.6% - Romney (R)

Advantage: Obama...and lots of folks are mad about it.

Other Projections (Some come from rather dubious sources)

Electoral Calculator: Make Your Own Map!

The Latest Campaign Developments:

Bloomberg endorses Obama, with a caveat (via Bloomberg):

I believe Mitt Romney is a good and decent man, and he would bring valuable business experience to the Oval Office. He understands that America was built on the promise of equal opportunity, not equal results. In the past he has also taken sensible positions on immigration, illegal guns, abortion rights and health care. But he has reversed course on all of them, and is even running against the health-care model he signed into law in Massachusetts.

If the 1994 or 2003 version of Mitt Romney were running for president, I may well have voted for him because, like so many other independents, I have found the past four years to be, in a word, disappointing

Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan both found success while their parties were out of power in Congress -- and President Obama can, too. If he listens to people on both sides of the aisle, and builds the trust of moderates, he can fulfill the hope he inspired four years ago and lead our country toward a better future for my children and yours. And that’s why I will be voting for him.

Anything you think we should add to this election countdown? Tell us in the comments.

Mark Micheli is Special Projects Editor for Government Executive Media Group. He's the editor of Excellence in Government Online and contributes to GovExec, NextGov and Defense One. Previously, he worked on national security and emergency management issues with the US Treasury Department and the Department of Homeland Security. He's a graduate of the Coro Fellows Program in Public Affairs and studied at Drake University.

FROM OUR SPONSORS
JOIN THE DISCUSSION
Close [ x ] More from GovExec
 
 

Thank you for subscribing to newsletters from GovExec.com.
We think these reports might interest you:

  • Sponsored by G Suite

    Cross-Agency Teamwork, Anytime and Anywhere

    Dan McCrae, director of IT service delivery division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

    Download
  • Data-Centric Security vs. Database-Level Security

    Database-level encryption had its origins in the 1990s and early 2000s in response to very basic risks which largely revolved around the theft of servers, backup tapes and other physical-layer assets. As noted in Verizon’s 2014, Data Breach Investigations Report (DBIR)1, threats today are far more advanced and dangerous.

    Download
  • Sponsored by One Identity

    One Nation Under Guard: Securing User Identities Across State and Local Government

    In 2016, the government can expect even more sophisticated threats on the horizon, making it all the more imperative that agencies enforce proper identity and access management (IAM) practices. In order to better measure the current state of IAM at the state and local level, Government Business Council (GBC) conducted an in-depth research study of state and local employees.

    Download
  • Sponsored by Aquilent

    The Next Federal Evolution of Cloud

    This GBC report explains the evolution of cloud computing in federal government, and provides an outlook for the future of the cloud in government IT.

    Download
  • Sponsored by LTC Partners, administrators of the Federal Long Term Care Insurance Program

    Approaching the Brink of Federal Retirement

    Approximately 10,000 baby boomers are reaching retirement age per day, and a growing number of federal employees are preparing themselves for the next chapter of their lives. Learn how to tackle the challenges that today's workforce faces in laying the groundwork for a smooth and secure retirement.

    Download
  • Sponsored by Hewlett Packard Enterprise

    Cyber Defense 101: Arming the Next Generation of Government Employees

    Read this issue brief to learn about the sector's most potent challenges in the new cyber landscape and how government organizations are building a robust, threat-aware infrastructure

    Download
  • Sponsored by Aquilent

    GBC Issue Brief: Cultivating Digital Services in the Federal Landscape

    Read this GBC issue brief to learn more about the current state of digital services in the government, and how key players are pushing enhancements towards a user-centric approach.

    Download

When you download a report, your information may be shared with the underwriters of that document.