Group forecasts growth in tech-related defense spending

As the Defense Department increases its investment in network-centric warfare over the next decade, Pentagon officials are likely to look to commercial providers for software-compatible radio systems, advanced sensors, "ruggedized" battlefield computers and other technologies that would boost the U.S. military's "information superiority," industry experts said Wednesday.

"There is now strong, grassroots support [within the Defense Department] for network-centric warfare and the required funding," Larry White of Boeing said during a conference sponsored by the Government Electronics and Information Technology Association (GEIA). "We feel that in the next 10 years this market is going to come into its own."

As part of GEIA's annual forecast on information technology spending by federal agencies, White led a team that evaluated the information superiority market and projected a growth rate of 2 percent annually from fiscal 2003 through fiscal 2013. White said those increases largely will result from lessons Defense learned from the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and its long-term war on terrorism.

"We will not win against [national security threats] unless we can protect our information systems, as well as attack an enemy's information systems," White said.

The GEIA analysis predicted that the Pentagon will spend $745 billion over the next decade on research and development, and procurement for information-superiority technologies. Defense is expected to spend about $60 billion on those capabilities in fiscal 2003, and by fiscal 2013 annual spending is expected to surpass $70 billion.

Defense's spending on related communications systems is likely to increase by 1.3 percent annually for that 10-year period, according to White.

A major focus will be developing and deploying networks, and redefining warfighter communications with technologies such as software-programmable radios that also could serve as nodes in the military's global information network. White said the Pentagon also is likely to invest heavily in fiber-optic networks, laser communications and technologies to increase bandwidth efficiency.

White said the military's demand for a wide range of sensor technologies also will increase over the next decade, as the Pentagon boosts its spending on intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technologies by 1.6 percent annually.

"Sensors are very important to the implementation of network-centric warfare because if you can't find the enemy, you can't kill them," White said, noting that the Pentagon is expected to spend about $22 billion on such capabilities in fiscal 2003.

Spending on navigation and guidance technologies-such as receivers for advanced global-positioning systems and applications to improve the accuracy of "smart bombs"-is likely to increase at an annual rate of 3.4 percent over the next decade, according to the GEIA forecast.

White said computer spending by Defense is projected to grow 1 percent annually, with a heavy emphasis on providing warfighters with ruggedized commercial technologies such as laptops, personal digital assistants and Internet access. He added that commercial technologies to prevent attacks on computer networks also will be heavily funded during that 10-year period.