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Analysis: What History Tells Us About Obama’s Second Term

March 12, 2013 In my line of work, you learn to look for historical patterns, but not to fall prisoner to them. When historical patterns exist, the underlying causes should be carefully considered; when potential exceptions develop, those should be considered as well. Is there a reason why this time is different? We...

Sequestration Hits Obama in the Polls

March 12, 2013 Just as I was about to file a column noting that President Obama’s job-approval rating had dropped to 46 percent for two consecutive days in the Gallup Poll—its lowest levels since late October—his rating popped back up 3 percentage points to 49 percent. That’s still below the 52 percent that...

Analysis: Sequestration May Be a Bad Idea Whose Time Has Come

March 5, 2013 Early last June, I was having coffee with a longtime friend, a former Republican member of Congress widely considered one of the most astute watchers of Washington and the political process. This friend said he thought that budget sequestration was very likely to happen, that it was almost inevitable given...

The Threat to Republicans

March 5, 2013 A recent poll by the Pew Research Center attracted a great deal of attention because it found that 62 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that the Republican Party was “out of touch with the American people”; only 33 percent disagreed. Even 36 percent of Republicans thought their party...

Why Obama Should Be Quiet on Immigration

February 25, 2013 Sometimes, silence really is golden. In politics, taking the path of highest visibility isn’t always the smartest way to do things. Last week presented two good examples of that principle being violated, one by a Democrat and the other by a Republican. As we watch President Obama stumping for comprehensive...

Death of the Swing Seat

February 15, 2013 Democrats face twin struggles as they seek to retake the House majority they lost in 2010. First, the chamber has largely sorted itself out. With 96 percent of Democratic House members representing districts carried by President Obama and 94 percent of Republican House lawmakers representing districts won by Mitt Romney,...

Huge Hispanic Support for Obama Was No Sure Thing

February 11, 2013 At this point, the narrative is pretty familiar to all: President Obama beat GOP nominee Mitt Romney by 44 percentage points among Latinos, 71 percent to 27 percent, exceeding the 67 percent of the Latino vote he won in 2008 over John McCain. Obama’s popularity among Hispanics since Election Day...

Pay No Attention To That Anemic Economy

February 5, 2013 Immigration and gun control have dominated the issue agenda for the past few weeks, pushing away, for a time, the previously dominant worries about fiscal issues and their impact on the overall health of the U.S. economy. But last week’s news that the economy, as measured by real gross domestic...

Wimping Out on Tough Votes

January 29, 2013 Liberals enthused by President Obama’s soaring inauguration rhetoric and conservatives fearful of an impending socialist takeover should all take a deep breath. Much of what liberals passionately want and conservatives deeply fear is unlikely to ever make it to a vote on the House or Senate floors. For the past...

For GOP, Just Doing the Math Is Frightening

January 22, 2013 Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is preparing a push for an immigration-reform proposal that promises to be the first real test of whether Republicans have learned a lesson from the Nov. 6 election results. GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney and congressional Republicans won the white vote by numbers normally seen in...

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