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Obama’s Uptick

September 25, 2012 Reality is often more complicated than conventional wisdom would have you believe, a point underscored in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. The survey showed President Obama with a 6-point lead among all registered voters, a 7-point edge among registered voters in 12 swing states, and a 5-point advantage ...

Obama’s a Good Bet

September 17, 2012 By this time next week, there should be enough national and state-level polling data to present a pretty clear picture of where this election stands, post-Labor Day and after whatever bounces the candidates may have gotten from the conventions. But we have seen enough data in recent weeks to draw ...

Democrats Could Keep the Senate

September 11, 2012 For Senate Democrats, the 2012 cycle was supposed to be about exposure to the kind of losses that would imperil their majority. Their goal for the cycle was simple: Hang on to control of the chamber by a thread. Just months ago, such an objective seemed like a pipe dream, ...

Analysis: It turns out Democrats could keep the Senate

September 4, 2012 For Senate Democrats, the 2012 cycle was supposed to be about exposure to the kind of losses that would imperil their majority. Their goal for the cycle was simple: Hang on to control of the chamber by a thread. Just months ago, such an objective seemed like a pipe dream, ...

What Women Want

September 4, 2012 Top strategists from both the Obama and Romney camps are quick to point to suburban women as the pivotal swing vote in this election. Many of these voters find themselves torn about their choice, as evidenced by a focus group of a dozen suburban women in Milwaukee not strongly committed ...

The Race Shouldn’t Be Close

August 27, 2012 Just about any analysis of the 2012 presidential election should start with words to the effect that this is a very close race, that close races can go either way, and that many different factors—convention speeches, debates, verbal miscues, overseas conflicts—can change the trajectory of such a race. A decision ...

How Romney Can Change the Subject

August 7, 2012 Looking at the broadest numbers in the presidential race, things don’t look too bad for Mitt Romney. In the latest-available trend estimate (a fancy weighted average) of national polls compiled by HuffPost Pollster, Romney leads President Obama by one-tenth of a percentage point, 45.8 percent to 45.7 percent—a statistically insignificant ...

Negative Impressions Hold Romney Back

July 31, 2012 The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows President Obama widening his lead over Mitt Romney among registered voters from 3 points in June to 6 points in July, 49 percent to 43 percent. Among a somewhat smaller group of voters in the dozen battleground states, Obama’s lead is 8 ...

Another Recession?

July 24, 2012 If you hear some scurrying, it may well be an economist quickly revising downward his forecast of economic growth for the just-completed second quarter of 2012. A steady stream of worrisome data has been coming out in recent weeks. The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence declined for the fourth ...

Dreams Deferred for the Middle Class

July 17, 2012 It’s a good bet that no authors dedicated a book “To Earl Long and Robert F. Kennedy” before James Carville and Stan Greenberg penned It’s the Middle Class, Stupid! It’s an odd book, but definitely worth putting on your preconvention reading list. Indeed, for many Democrats, it will become the ...