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Senate Democrats Earned Every Seat They Won

November 20, 2012 It’s hard to talk about the 2012 congressional elections without starting with the Senate and the remarkable election night for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Democrats scored a net gain of two seats, something that was inconceivable 90 days ago or, for that matter, on Nov. 5. They held five ...

Advice to Obama: Make More Friends in Congress

November 13, 2012 President Obama deserves to be congratulated for his victory, as well as reminded that his win, with 50 percent of the vote, means that half of Americans who cast their ballots preferred either Mitt Romney or some other candidate. The victory offers the president the opportunity to win over people ...

Obama Can Thank Early Negative Ads for His Advantage

November 6, 2012 America faces two general elections. One is occurring in seven or so swing states, where voters have experienced saturation advertising -- mostly negative -- since mid-June. The total-immersion process in these states has made this a very different campaign from that experienced by voters in the 40-odd other states who ...

If Obama Loses, Blame the Debates

October 30, 2012 Before the first presidential debate, it was easy to say that the face-offs usually don’t matter that much. One had to go back to 1976, 1980, and 1984 to find examples of a debate having a material effect on a presidential election. But that first debate earlier this month—specifically, Mitt ...

Possibility of a Popular, Electoral Vote Split is Real

October 23, 2012 Partisans still hoping that their candidate will build a clear lead in the presidential contest are likely to be disappointed. The race seems destined to be a close one, with the outcome remaining in doubt to the very end. President Obama won the second debate, but not by nearly enough ...

There's No Question, Romney Changed the Game

October 16, 2012 Before the first presidential debate, this column repeatedly pointed out that Mitt Romney needed something to happen -- an event or development that would change the trajectory of this race -- or he would lose. As Jay Leno remarked, the only people who thought President Obama won the debate were ...

Mitt Romney Breaks His Losing Streak

October 9, 2012 Too many political observers see politics in an entirely binary way: Everything has to be either a “0” or a “1”; a race is either tied or it’s over; every election is either won or stolen. Some people never want to admit that their side lost. And some people think ...

Shades of 1996

October 2, 2012 Public attitudes toward candidates and elections often start off in a fluid state. Then they gradually begin to jell, first reaching a semisolid state before hardening to rock-solid. This year’s presidential race isn’t over, but Mitt Romney’s current trajectory in the polls will not cross President Obama’s by Nov. 6—or ...

Obama’s Uptick

September 25, 2012 Reality is often more complicated than conventional wisdom would have you believe, a point underscored in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. The survey showed President Obama with a 6-point lead among all registered voters, a 7-point edge among registered voters in 12 swing states, and a 5-point advantage ...

Obama’s a Good Bet

September 17, 2012 By this time next week, there should be enough national and state-level polling data to present a pretty clear picture of where this election stands, post-Labor Day and after whatever bounces the candidates may have gotten from the conventions. But we have seen enough data in recent weeks to draw ...