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Death of the Swing Seat

February 15, 2013 Democrats face twin struggles as they seek to retake the House majority they lost in 2010. First, the chamber has largely sorted itself out. With 96 percent of Democratic House members representing districts carried by President Obama and 94 percent of Republican House lawmakers representing districts won by Mitt Romney, ...

Huge Hispanic Support for Obama Was No Sure Thing

February 11, 2013 At this point, the narrative is pretty familiar to all: President Obama beat GOP nominee Mitt Romney by 44 percentage points among Latinos, 71 percent to 27 percent, exceeding the 67 percent of the Latino vote he won in 2008 over John McCain. Obama’s popularity among Hispanics since Election Day ...

Pay No Attention To That Anemic Economy

February 5, 2013 Immigration and gun control have dominated the issue agenda for the past few weeks, pushing away, for a time, the previously dominant worries about fiscal issues and their impact on the overall health of the U.S. economy. But last week’s news that the economy, as measured by real gross domestic ...

Wimping Out on Tough Votes

January 29, 2013 Liberals enthused by President Obama’s soaring inauguration rhetoric and conservatives fearful of an impending socialist takeover should all take a deep breath. Much of what liberals passionately want and conservatives deeply fear is unlikely to ever make it to a vote on the House or Senate floors. For the past ...

For GOP, Just Doing the Math Is Frightening

January 22, 2013 Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is preparing a push for an immigration-reform proposal that promises to be the first real test of whether Republicans have learned a lesson from the Nov. 6 election results. GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney and congressional Republicans won the white vote by numbers normally seen in ...

Analysis: Next fiscal fight shifts focus to spending cuts

January 15, 2013 Nearly everyone views the year-end fiscal-cliff fight as a debacle, but once that is accepted as a given, opinions tend to diverge. While one can say that the vast majority of Bush-era tax cuts were not just extended but made permanent—something that Republicans and conservatives should like—there were effectively no ...

Congressional Republicans Are Striking Out

January 15, 2013 Just about anyone who follows baseball has seen a game where all the close calls seem to go one way, benefiting one team at the expense of the other. So it is with the public’s view of the fiscal-cliff debacle that marked the end of the 112th Congress. Neither party ...

GOP Must Modernize Its Campaigning Now

December 18, 2012 It’s often said that people aren’t as brilliant or talented as they seem when they win, or as dumb or inept as they seem when they lose. That should be kept in mind in any analysis of the 2012 general-election campaign. It’s easy to talk about how great and effective ...

History Favors a 2014 GOP Comeback

December 11, 2012 It’s hard to pick up any publication or watch any television program oriented toward politics and not be reminded of the problems facing the Republican Party. Republicans have now lost the popular vote for president in five of the past six presidential elections. The last time the GOP won 300 ...

The One Pollster Republicans Should Listen To

December 4, 2012 It’s interesting to see Republicans offer different interpretations of this year’s elections. As in most things, where you stand depends on where you sit. Chuck Todd and his terrific political team at NBC News pointed out in their Nov. 27 First Read newsletter that 117 House Republicans won with 60 ...