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No Transformation

November 16, 2004 Even though President Bush and his Republican Party won a decisive victory, Election 2004 was hardly the transformational contest that some are making it out to be. If the country has gone from being a 49-49 nation, as the Almanac of American Politics' Michael Barone noted two years ago, to ...

Near-Perfect Campaign

November 9, 2004 In a really competitive race, there is rarely just one reason for a victory. But an important factor in President Bush's triumph surely is that the Bush-Cheney reelection effort was perhaps the best planned, best executed, most disciplined, and most strategic presidential campaign in history. The Bush campaign team was ...

Waiting Game

November 2, 2004 Exhausted political junkies of all stripes should have used last weekend to bank sleep, because Tuesday night is likely to be very, very long. Yet the tone and rhythm of Election Night will probably be set early in the evening. Many of this year's most important Senate, House, and presidential-battleground ...

Race to the Wire

October 26, 2004 At the beginning of this presidential campaign, virtually any serious political discussion began with twin premises: Our country was as evenly divided between the two major parties as it had been at any time in modern history, and our politics had become more polarized than at any other time in ...

Handicapping the Presidential Election

October 19, 2004 Now that the presidential debates are behind us and the campaign is entering its final stretch, a primer on how to handicap a presidential election is in order. First, don't focus on individual polls. With recent surveys from highly reputable firms showing everything from a 5-point lead for President Bush ...

Tie Game

October 12, 2004 For perhaps the first time in this general election campaign, the presidential race is essentially even. While this has always been a competitive race, one candidate or the other has generally had an edge, even if just by a couple of points. If someone put a gun to my head ...

Armchair Politics

October 5, 2004 The announced topic of the first presidential debate was foreign policy, but the make-or-break question underlying that 90-minute broadcast had nothing directly to do with Iraq or North Korea or the Middle East: Do the American people want John Kerry in their living rooms for the next four years? It ...

Debates and Developments

September 28, 2004 With the first presidential debate looming this Thursday night, we're in the heart of this campaign. The race is now very steady, top strategists in both parties say, with President Bush running ahead of Sen. John Kerry by 3 to 5 points -- a narrower margin than many public polls ...

Time to Play Offense

September 21, 2004 With just six weeks to go before the election, Republicans are favored to hold the White House and to maintain their majorities in the Senate and House, although only their House victory seems certain. President Bush runs ahead of Sen. John Kerry by an average of about 6 points in ...

Parsing the Polls

September 14, 2004 The Bush-Cheney '04 campaign is one of the best-planned and best-executed presidential campaigns in modern history -- up there with the 1992 Clinton-Gore campaign, which upset the re-election hopes of President Bush's father. And not since the 1984 Republican convention, which renominated President Reagan, has there been a national convention ...