AUTHOR ARCHIVES

Results 441-450 of 477

Debates and Developments

September 28, 2004 With the first presidential debate looming this Thursday night, we're in the heart of this campaign. The race is now very steady, top strategists in both parties say, with President Bush running ahead of Sen. John Kerry by 3 to 5 points -- a narrower margin than many public polls ...

Time to Play Offense

September 21, 2004 With just six weeks to go before the election, Republicans are favored to hold the White House and to maintain their majorities in the Senate and House, although only their House victory seems certain. President Bush runs ahead of Sen. John Kerry by an average of about 6 points in ...

Parsing the Polls

September 14, 2004 The Bush-Cheney '04 campaign is one of the best-planned and best-executed presidential campaigns in modern history -- up there with the 1992 Clinton-Gore campaign, which upset the re-election hopes of President Bush's father. And not since the 1984 Republican convention, which renominated President Reagan, has there been a national convention ...

Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

September 7, 2004 Matthew Dowd, the chief Bush campaign strategist, made the argument last Monday during the Republican convention that whichever presidential candidate wins two out of a crucial three states -- Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- will probably be the next president. The next day, without knowing about Dowd's prediction, former Clinton ...

Reading the Tea Leaves

August 31, 2004 Depending on which numbers you find most persuasive, you can convince yourself that President Bush is virtually certain to be re-elected or will surely lose in November. The vast majority of political scientists and economists who forecast elections based on computer models will be presenting their papers at the annual ...

Senate Dominoes

August 24, 2004 Even though Senate Democrats had been waiting with bated breath until Sen. Jon Corzine, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, announced he won't seek the governorship of New Jersey if there is a special election this fall, the Senate landscape looks fairly stable. In fact, arguably, the odds have ...

Addition and Subtraction

August 17, 2004 It's become clear that, as many of us predicted, Sen. John Kerry came out of the Democratic convention with only a modest bounce. Indeed, much of the bounce arguably came before the convention and was the result of Kerry selecting Sen. John Edwards as his running mate. The argument made ...

Dead Heat

August 10, 2004 With a presidential race that looks likely to end in a photo finish, a fight for Senate control that appears increasingly competitive, and -- if you believe Democrats -- a closely divided House that might actually be in play, both parties are dreaming of achieving the political equivalent of a ...

Shell Game

August 3, 2004 Analyzing the battle for the Senate has become a conflict between the objective and the subjective. From an objective point of view, the Senate is a math problem. The Republicans have a 51-seat majority. That means that to take control, the Democrats need to pick up two seats if President ...

Currying Favor

July 27, 2004 Before Sen. John Edwards became John Kerry's running mate, President Bush and the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee had been running neck and neck for an amazingly long time -- nearly three months. In national polls, Bush and Kerry had each been fairly consistently getting the support of about 45 percent ...