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Signs of Turbulence

August 15, 2006 Amid all of the sophisticated -- and more than a little hyperventilated -- analysis on Tuesday night after the primary defeats of Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., Rep. Cynthia McKinney, D-Ga., and Rep. Joe Schwarz, R-Mich., I received an e-mail from a friend who is a senior national political correspondent for ...

Gathering Storm

August 8, 2006 Time is running out for Republicans. Unless something dramatic happens before Election Day, Democrats will take control of the House. And the chances that they'll seize the Senate are rising toward 50-50. The electoral hurricane bearing down on the GOP looks likely to be a Category 4 or 5, strong ...

Murky Horizons

August 1, 2006 Anyone who feels certain that Republicans will keep their majority in the House or that Democrats will regain control of the chamber ought to be carrying pompoms and a megaphone. That person is cheerleading, not analyzing. Sure, you can make reasonably convincing arguments that Republicans will retain control of both ...

Lesser of Two Evils

July 25, 2006 This past week I traveled with my 13-year-old son, Jeff. Each night we watched an evening-news broadcast or one of the cable news shows. And each night Jeff's eyes seemed to widen even more than the night before as we watched the latest horrific reports from around the globe -- ...

On the Upswing

July 18, 2006 Three national polls in a row indicate that President Bush's job-approval rating has climbed back to 40 percent or slightly higher. That's still dangerous territory for his party in a midterm election year, but not as treacherous as the low-to-mid-30s, where Bush was in early and mid-May. In late June, ...

Shifting Picture

July 11, 2006 The fight for control of the House is getting more ink than the battle for control of the Senate, but several recent shifts in individual Senate races merit attention. All year, talk about the Democrats' chances of taking the Senate has focused on the five most endangered Republican incumbents. They ...

Measuring Against 1994

June 27, 2006 Now that President Bush's job-approval ratings have edged up to the high 30s and certain other indicators have also improved a bit for the GOP, are House Republicans in better shape than Democrats were at this point in 1994? One way to answer is to look at the results of ...

Rays of Hope

June 20, 2006 Given the fickleness of public opinion, it's probably risky to say this, but it looks like President Bush's free fall has bottomed out, as have other key indicators that were trending against Republicans. Combined with last week's Republican victory in the special election in California's 50th Congressional District (an almost ...

Presidential Prospects

June 13, 2006 As fascinating as the 2006 midterm elections are for political aficionados, there is nothing like the 2008 presidential election to get their juices flowing. With strong personalities such as Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain starting off as front-runners for their parties' nominations, there is little chance of apathy ...

Unwise Outrage

June 6, 2006 You might think that I would sympathize with House Speaker Dennis Hastert and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's bipartisan anger over the FBI search of the office of Rep. William Jefferson and their demands that the documents seized from the Rayburn House Office Building be returned to the Louisiana Democrat. ...