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League of Her Own

February 13, 2007 Part of me hated to see Barack Obama jump into the presidential race. Don't get me wrong: I have nothing against the senator from Illinois. But I had a theory about how the contest for the Democratic nomination would play out, and I worried that Obama's entry could complicate things. ...

Measuring the Obstacles

February 6, 2007 The more I think about the contest for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, the more uncertain I am about how Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will fare. However, I continue to be confident that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani won't last long if he ...

Color Them Competitive

January 30, 2007 Only three states switched their allegiance between the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. When George W. Bush first ran for the White House, he won New Hampshire but lost New Mexico and Iowa. Four years later, he lost New Hampshire but won New Mexico and Iowa. Even though the margins ...

Lopsided Lineup

January 23, 2007 Recruiting for the 2008 congressional races is only beginning, but that hasn't stopped Senate Democrats from predicting that they'll expand their one-seat majority. It's not hard to see why the Democratic leadership is optimistic. Republicans must defend 21 of the 33 Senate seats up next year. Perhaps the single biggest ...

Tarnished Image

January 16, 2007 Republican campaign consultants have been publicly expressing a great deal of concern that the "GOP brand" has been damaged, or at least tarnished. For top strategists to be so candid about their party's problems is fairly unusual, and it reflects just how urgent they consider the party's need to redefine ...

Awkward Assignment

January 9, 2007 Democrats and Republicans alike will be feeling their way through the next month or two, trying to adjust to this New World Order. Back in control on both sides of the Capitol, Democrats must relearn how to govern -- and not just throw rocks, the primary occupation of the minority. ...

First Time’s a Charm

December 19, 2006 One of the great things about post-election conferences is that even those of us who watch American politics full-time can gain insights into why the election turned out the way it did. Along with Democratic consultant James Carville and Republican Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia, I hosted such a conference ...

Few Surprises

December 12, 2006 Despite all the huffing and puffing about presidential exploratory committees, staff announcements, and phone calls to party leaders, only four consequential events other than the midterm elections occurred in recent months concerning presidential politics: Sen. Barack Obama's October 22 declaration that he is seriously considering seeking the Democratic nomination; the ...

Restoring Balance

December 5, 2006 In some ways, it is easy to dismiss what happened in the midterm elections and to chalk up Democrats' gains to voters' displeasure over the war in Iraq, scandals, and a feeling that Congress has grown dysfunctional. Some people go so far as to argue that this election meant very ...

State of Denial

November 21, 2006 No one understands better than someone who does political analysis for a living that it is unrealistic to expect anyone to foresee exactly what is going to happen in an election. But I still marvel at those who seemed oblivious to what was happening this year and now continue to ...