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Primary Predictions

September 11, 2007 If a cartoonist were trying to depict the battles for the 2008 presidential nominations, the Democratic picture might show Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as a locomotive hurtling along beneath the question, "Can anyone derail her?" and the GOP picture might depict the Republican candidates as contestants on "Survivor." But the...

Feeling the Pain

September 4, 2007 Even though a political analyst's job is not to root for any political party, it's easy to feel a tinge of sympathy for a party when nothing is going its way. In 1994 Democrats couldn't buy a break, and last year the same could be said of Republicans. Similarly, when...

A Tale of Two Winners

August 21, 2007 AMES, IOWA -- It's hard to imagine a more different pair of winners than former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. The two emerged from the Aug. 11 GOP presidential straw poll in first and second place with 31.5 percent and 18.1 percent of the vote,...

The Bloomberg Scenario

August 14, 2007 One of the more interesting questions asked in political circles these days is whether there is any room for an independent presidential candidate, such as New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll indicates that in a three-way general election matchup, Sen. Hillary Rodham...

Busy Intersection

August 7, 2007 The 2008 presidential race has more than its share of peculiarities. Will the next president be the first woman, the first African-American, the first Mormon, the first Hispanic, or the first Italian-American to hold that office? Or will the next occupant of the Oval Office be the second movie actor...

Watch for Retirements

July 31, 2007 Just over a month from now, members of Congress will be returning from their "Summer District Work Period," aka the August recess, ready to take on the legislative items remaining on their agenda as they head toward adjournment sometime in late fall. Politically speaking, however, September is more important than...

Giuliani’s Opening

July 24, 2007 Rudy Giuliani's quest for the Republican presidential nomination got off to an impressive start, with his national poll numbers rising from early 2006 through February of this year. At his peak, the former mayor of New York City polled about 33 percent in the moving average of all major national...

Early Exit

July 17, 2007 After several senior staffers resigned from Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign on Tuesday, many observers wondered, "When will McCain drop out?" The answer probably depends on the definition of "out." The beleaguered Arizona Republican will likely remain a candidate in the technical sense until the end of the year so...

Money Isn’t Everything

July 10, 2007 There are no two ways about it: Sen. Barack Obama's blistering $32.5 million second-quarter fundraising is impressive. For any presidential contender to raise $58.3 million in the first six months of a campaign is nearly unbelievable. But for someone who was sitting in the Illinois Legislature less than three years...

Polling Trends

July 3, 2007 The political world will soon be awash in second-quarter fundraising numbers from the 2008 presidential campaigns. But this column's focus is on polling numbers -- the combined results of four national surveys, conducted in late April, mid-May, and twice in June, by Thom Riehle and RT Strategies for The Cook...