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Refusing to Turn on a Dime

November 13, 2007 Every once in a while, a piece of data crosses your desk that causes you to scratch your head. That happened to me when I saw the most recent Newsweek poll. Even though U.S. military and Iraq civilian casualties have been declining for several months and even though people in...

Far Right Revolt?

November 6, 2007 If Rudy Giuliani were to win the Republican presidential nomination, would that trigger a significant third-party effort by social and religious conservatives, potentially costing the former New York City mayor the general election? Don't expect an unequivocal answer here. I, for one, am still trying to get my arms around...

Steady Gains

October 30, 2007 While there is a lot of talk these days about Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's strong showing in Democratic presidential primary polls, considerably less has been said about the small but consistent improvement in her general election poll standings. During the first four months of this year, Clinton trailed former New...

Reconsidering Giuliani

October 23, 2007 Good mottos for political columnists might be "Quick to judge, quick to change" and "Don't go down with the ship." That is, don't hang on to a theory or prediction that you no longer believe in or that is increasingly likely to be wrong. As political analysts, we are supposed...

Romney's Palmetto Problem

October 16, 2007 Although there are hundreds of ways to look at the fight for the GOP presidential nomination, increasingly it looks as if the South Carolina primary could end up as the pivotal contest. Right now, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's early focus on Iowa and New Hampshire appears to have paid...

A Race to Watch

October 9, 2007 Since winning their majority status in November, Democratic leaders in Congress have been struggling to find the right approach to opposing the war in Iraq. A vocal segment of their party wants out of Iraq yesterday. A less vocal segment worries that a precipitous withdrawal could turn Iraq into an...

Whining Won’t Help

October 2, 2007 Few things get inside-the-Beltway juices flowing more than the prospect of partisan fratricide. The latest round of political infighting broke into view on September 21 in the Politico. John Bresnahan and Patrick O'Connor reported that Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma was threatening to resign as chairman of the National Republican...

Don’t Count Her Out

September 25, 2007 "Can Hillary Clinton win?" That is one of the most common questions in American politics these days, except among people who flatly declare, "There is no way Hillary Clinton can win." All but the most committed Republicans acknowledge the difficulty of their party's winning the White House next year. Four...

Dominance Versus Confusion

September 18, 2007 Hillary Rodham Clinton's dominance of the Democratic presidential contest and the confusion in the fight for the GOP nomination are both confirmed by a new set of polls, conducted in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina for the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News. Taken September 6-10, the polls surveyed...

Primary Predictions

September 11, 2007 If a cartoonist were trying to depict the battles for the 2008 presidential nominations, the Democratic picture might show Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as a locomotive hurtling along beneath the question, "Can anyone derail her?" and the GOP picture might depict the Republican candidates as contestants on "Survivor." But the...

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