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Playing the Name Game for 2016

April 21, 2014 The most popular parlor game in Washington and among political aficionados across America at the moment is pondering who will run for president in 2016, who will be the finalists for each nomination, and who will ultimately win on Nov. 8. It's always a fun game to play, with an ...

No Perfect Political Weapon

April 14, 2014 Anyone who knows me well knows I am usually eyeing the oven for the next fresh batch of in-depth public-opinion data from Democracy Corps, a partnership between legendary Democratic strategists Stan Greenberg and James Carville that just celebrated its 15th anniversary. It gets even better when the two team up ...

Early Predictions on the 2016 GOP Presidential Nomination

April 8, 2014 The extent to which the politics of the 2016 presidential nomination are already encroaching on the 2014 midterm elections is, indeed, quite something. Establishment Republicans worried about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's political viability now seem to be turning their attention back to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who in ...

How 2014 Could Give the GOP False Hope

March 31, 2014 It's aggravating to read something really smart, something that I wish I had written myself. Amy Walter, my colleague at The Cook Political Report, recently wrote just such a piece—one about Republicans who worry privately that success in 2014 will leave their party with false hope for 2016: "Even though ...

Six Ways Washington Will Stay the Same

March 24, 2014 Political aficionados like to look at elections the same way sports fans fill out their NCAA basketball brackets, assemble a fantasy football team, or play rotisserie baseball. The real import is what the final governing configuration will be after Election Day: Which party will control the House? Who will hold ...

You Don't Need a Weatherman

March 17, 2014 The political chatter these days is about the special election in Florida's 13th Congressional District, which was held to fill the vacancy left by the late GOP Rep. Bill Young. The district is considered to be in a very competitive area of the country (indeed, President Obama won the 13th ...

Congressional Democrats Face Uphill Battle in Midterms

March 10, 2014 At this point, eight months before the Nov. 4 election, it’s hard to see a lot of good news for congressional Democrats. No matter how you look at it, the House seems out of reach. Today, Republicans appear a bit more likely to gain than to lose seats; it would ...

Uneasy Days for the Economy

March 3, 2014 Listening the other day to discouraging economic forecasts from Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers, I was reminded of the many polls showing that Americans worry their children won't have the same opportunities they did. To be clear, neither the former Fed chairman nor the former Treasury secretary was predicting recessions ...

Is Hillary Clinton Really a 100 Percent Lock to Run?

February 14, 2014 At least every week now, there is a new story supporting the narrative of an inevitable 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential bid. Indeed, the conventional wisdom is that it is an absolute certainty that she will run. If anyone is currently saying, flat out, that Hillary isn't running, I haven't come ...

The Path to Victory in 2014

February 10, 2014 The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza created something of a stir recently with his column headlined, “2014 Senate races may be a referendum on Obama; if so, Democrats should worry.” Cillizza (a former Cook Political Report staffer) linked to the Gallup Organization’s just-released aggregation of all of its 2013 polling data, ...