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Congressional Democrats Face Uphill Battle in Midterms

March 10, 2014 At this point, eight months before the Nov. 4 election, it’s hard to see a lot of good news for congressional Democrats. No matter how you look at it, the House seems out of reach. Today, Republicans appear a bit more likely to gain than to lose seats; it would ...

Uneasy Days for the Economy

March 3, 2014 Listening the other day to discouraging economic forecasts from Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers, I was reminded of the many polls showing that Americans worry their children won't have the same opportunities they did. To be clear, neither the former Fed chairman nor the former Treasury secretary was predicting recessions ...

Is Hillary Clinton Really a 100 Percent Lock to Run?

February 14, 2014 At least every week now, there is a new story supporting the narrative of an inevitable 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential bid. Indeed, the conventional wisdom is that it is an absolute certainty that she will run. If anyone is currently saying, flat out, that Hillary isn't running, I haven't come ...

The Path to Victory in 2014

February 10, 2014 The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza created something of a stir recently with his column headlined, “2014 Senate races may be a referendum on Obama; if so, Democrats should worry.” Cillizza (a former Cook Political Report staffer) linked to the Gallup Organization’s just-released aggregation of all of its 2013 polling data, ...

Why We're Already Talking About the 2016 Race

February 3, 2014 It's hard to remember a presidential contest receiving this much attention so long before the election cycle even began. We have the burbling question of whether Hillary Clinton will run, not to mention a look at the former secretary of State and her closest circle of advisers and supporters in ...

The Parties Have Already Devised Their Midterm Messages

January 13, 2014 The gavel has been struck on what has been widely judged to be the least productive session of Congress in history, and now a new one with few, if any, expectations of improvement has commenced. It used to be that this first week of a session was filled with expectations—some ...

Can Democrats Recover From the Obamacare Catastrophe?

December 10, 2013 Most graphs of polling data show shifts that are very gradual. (Tracking real-time changes in poll results often is about as exciting as watching paint dry.) Recently, however, the HuffPost Pollster website produced a graph of national polling on Congress that showed one of the most dramatic shifts I've ever ...

Anti-Incumbent Fever Won't Oust Many Incumbents

November 26, 2013 If you think about it, all the ingredients necessary for a political explosion are in place: Congress's unfavorable ratings are at record-high levels, and, according to Gallup, its favorable ratings are down to 9 percent (who knew members had so many friends and family?). A large segment of the electorate ...

Voters Don't Want to See Anyone Win

November 19, 2013 The day after Election Day 2012, the worst fear for many Republicans was that the GOP’s problems—in terms of the overall party brand and its image among minorities, young people, women, and moderates—would not improve. The biggest concern for many Democrats was that their success had peaked with President Obama’s ...

The GOP Still Hasn't Figured Out How to Get On With the Tea Party

November 11, 2013 Postmortems of odd-year and special elections often suffer from overly broad generalizations that push a particular narrative while overlooking any arguments that get in the way. The instant analyses also tend to suffer from the impulse to extrapolate results and divine great meaning, as if they foreshadow the future. I’ll ...