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No Losers Here

November 16, 2010 The irony of midterm elections is that sometimes the smartest, best-organized party committees fall victim to the most devastating waves. That was true in 2006, when the National Republican Congressional Committee made a heroic but unsuccessful effort to defend the party's majority under horrific conditions, and it is equally true ...

Why? Why? Why?

November 9, 2010 This election was an odd mix. On the House side, it was a nationalized, parliamentary election where the party affiliation of candidates was all-important. In the Senate and gubernatorial races, where Republican gains were not of the same magnitude as in the House, party affiliation was also important but so ...

High Anxiety

November 2, 2010 About a third of all the votes have already been cast, and the 2010 midterm election will soon be in the history books. Look for more than 80, and perhaps 90, newly elected House members and at least 17 or 18 new senators when the 112th Congress convenes in January. ...

It’s Inevitable

October 26, 2010 With less than two weeks until Election Day, Democrats are hoping that the cavalry will ride in to save the day. There is no sign of the cavalry, though, and it still looks as if Democrats are in for a defeat of 1994 proportions. With liberalized early- and absentee-voting laws, ...

House Flips. Senate Doesn't

October 19, 2010 It's crunch time for pollsters. One Republican I know gets to his office every morning about 8, sifts through data, writes memos, and participates in conference calls until about 6 p.m. He goes home to eat and rest, then returns to the office around 10 p.m. as the interviews from ...

Dems Batten Down the Hatches

October 12, 2010 These are tortuous days for Democrats. Unlike 1994, when ignorance was bliss and no one on either side appreciated the magnitude of the pending storm, Democrats can see what's coming. They know that what happened 16 years ago could happen again. Yet every few days, some poll or development gives ...

Are Democrats Waking Up?

October 5, 2010 A certain ebb and flow marks every campaign year. In 2010, as everyone knows, most of the flow has been in the Republican Party's direction. But if a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is correct, the tide may have ebbed a bit. The survey shows the two parties still ...

After The Deluge Of 2010

September 28, 2010 A well-known Democratic strategist commented to me the other day, "We have a hurricane coming right at us. We know it's not going to veer to the left or right; it's coming straight at us. It could end up being a Category 3, 4, or 5, but right now it's ...

When Winning Is Losing

September 21, 2010 In late October 2006, almost three months after this column projected that the GOP would likely lose the House and stood a 50-50 chance of losing the Senate, I upped my estimate of the total number of House seats that Republicans would drop. This prompted a prominent conservative blogger to ...

Shifting Seats

September 7, 2010 For much of this year, it seemed a near mathematical impossibility that Republicans could score the 10-seat net gain needed to flip the Senate, which is split between 59 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats and largely vote with the party) and 41 Republicans. As recently as six ...