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Bombs Away

November 8, 2011 The general election is now a year away. Soon, the airwaves will be filled with the venomous, negative campaign ads that we've all come to know and sometimes loathe. Parents of young children will be reaching for the Disney DVDs, hoping to protect their offspring from seeing those who aspire ...

Underwater

November 1, 2011 With the 2012 presidential general election just a year away, it's a good time to look at the national polling and talk about the state of play. Obviously, we have to make allowances for changing circumstances and unexpected events. The best barometer of how a president is going to fare ...

Coupon Clippers

October 25, 2011 One of the occupational hazards of being a political analyst is the tendency to become too dependent on the reams of polling data and economic numbers that come out every week. So it's refreshing to get a chance to observe focus groups and listen to Americans talking plainly about their ...

Bird in the Hand

October 18, 2011 There were still eight Republican presidential contenders on the Dartmouth College stage on Oct. 11, but this contest has clarified a great deal in recent weeks. Looking at national and state poll standings, fundraising, endorsements by key leaders, and campaign organization, it's pretty clear that Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Speaker ...

It’s Perry’s to Win

October 11, 2011 Now that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has announced he will not seek the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, all of the Republican donors, elected officials, and party activists pining for a savior to jump into the race must face the reality that the field is set. They need to channel ...

Obama as Bush

October 4, 2011 A plethora of articles in recent days have noted President Obama's sudden shift in emphasis back to his party's liberal base, following his largely unrewarded dalliance with independents. What has gone unnoticed, however, is that this move could mimic the strategy that Karl Rove pursued in President Bush's 2004 reelection ...

If the GOP Wins

September 27, 2011 It's hard to find many upbeat and optimistic Democrats these days; many seem distinctly worried if not apoplectic about the 2012 elections. Thinking about those lofty days when Barack Obama was elected and sworn in as president of the United States, let's just say this wasn't the cruise that Democrats ...

Isn’t That Special?

September 20, 2011 Whenever there's a special election for a House or Senate seat, the two parties react predictably. The victorious party proclaims that the election was a national referendum of huge significance. The losing party attributes the outcome to local problems-perhaps the candidate was weak or the campaign was disorganized and off-message. ...

Background Noise

September 13, 2011 By the time you read this, President Obama will have addressed a joint session of Congress outlining his latest proposal to improve the country's economic situation, which is currently teetering on the edge of a double-dip recession. The employment picture is as challenging as any a president has faced since ...

Obama’s Anchor

September 6, 2011 The political significance of unemployment rates in the 9 percent range just 15 months before a presidential election is pretty obvious; indeed, no post-World War II president has faced this bleak a jobs picture at this juncture. Other measures marking the breadth and depth of the jobs problem also merit ...