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House Incumbents, Beware

February 15, 2011 For the past two years, virtually every House candidate who has come to the offices of The Cook Political Report for an interview has cited his or her desire to "shake things up" in Washington. Whether Democrat or Republican, they seemed united in the conviction that they could make a ...

Beware the Swan

February 8, 2011 The events that have transpired recently in Egypt and other countries in the Middle East should remind all of us about the danger of pretending that we know how the 2012 presidential election will unfold. We can study polls, historical election data, the Electoral College map, the growth in the ...

Open Season in the Senate

February 1, 2011 Writing about an election that is just over 21 months away can be perilous. We don't know what the political climate will be or who will be running. In the 2010 election cycle, the early Senate story line focused on the greater number of open seats that the Republicans had ...

The Right Direction

January 25, 2011 Don't look now, liberal activists, but President Obama's pivot toward the center is paying off in higher public-approval numbers than he has seen in six months. For nearly two years, Democratic centrists watched as the newly elected president headed to the left. Not surprisingly, his poll numbers took a beating. ...

Dialing It Down

January 18, 2011 Much of the speculation about the implications of the tragic Tucson shooting has centered on whether it will lead to any meaningful change in the incendiary rhetoric that has been on the rise in American political campaigns and on Internet sites, cable television, and talk radio. A more productive line ...

Beyond Repeal

January 11, 2011 A lot of people in Washington appear surprised that congressional Republicans are intent on trying to repeal the health care bill that President Obama signed into law last year. What seems lost on them is that elections have consequences. In the 2010 midterms, the health care law was second only ...

So It Begins

December 21, 2010 If I had my druthers, I'd just as soon wait a while before starting to think about 2012 -- let a decent interval elapse between the end of one election cycle and the beginning of another. But professional obligations dictate otherwise, so here's an early look at the contours of ...

Independents’ Day

December 14, 2010 The liberal wing of the Democratic Party is furious over President Obama's deal with congressional Republicans on extending the Bush tax cuts, but the move is likely to go over well with independent voters. To liberals, the president's agreement to continue the cuts for families whose incomes top $250,000 was ...

Pay-Freeze Politics

December 7, 2010 Whether one agrees or disagrees with President Obama's proposal to skip the scheduled 1.4 percent cost-of-living increase for civilian federal workers, his plan does mark his first real acknowledgment that a new political reality exists after the Nov. 2 election. It would be hard to imagine Obama taking such a ...

A Smart Reid

November 23, 2010 When Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., was facing reelection in 1998, The Cook Political Report wrote that he was running an ineffectual campaign with horrible advertising. Not surprisingly, Reid's aides let us know they didn't appreciate the analysis and didn't agree with it. As it turned out, Reid was elected to ...