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There's No Question, Romney Changed the Game

October 16, 2012 Before the first presidential debate, this column repeatedly pointed out that Mitt Romney needed something to happen -- an event or development that would change the trajectory of this race -- or he would lose. As Jay Leno remarked, the only people who thought President Obama won the debate were...

Mitt Romney Breaks His Losing Streak

October 9, 2012 Too many political observers see politics in an entirely binary way: Everything has to be either a “0” or a “1”; a race is either tied or it’s over; every election is either won or stolen. Some people never want to admit that their side lost. And some people think...

Shades of 1996

October 2, 2012 Public attitudes toward candidates and elections often start off in a fluid state. Then they gradually begin to jell, first reaching a semisolid state before hardening to rock-solid. This year’s presidential race isn’t over, but Mitt Romney’s current trajectory in the polls will not cross President Obama’s by Nov. 6—or...

Obama’s Uptick

September 25, 2012 Reality is often more complicated than conventional wisdom would have you believe, a point underscored in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. The survey showed President Obama with a 6-point lead among all registered voters, a 7-point edge among registered voters in 12 swing states, and a 5-point advantage...

Obama’s a Good Bet

September 17, 2012 By this time next week, there should be enough national and state-level polling data to present a pretty clear picture of where this election stands, post-Labor Day and after whatever bounces the candidates may have gotten from the conventions. But we have seen enough data in recent weeks to draw...

Democrats Could Keep the Senate

September 11, 2012 For Senate Democrats, the 2012 cycle was supposed to be about exposure to the kind of losses that would imperil their majority. Their goal for the cycle was simple: Hang on to control of the chamber by a thread. Just months ago, such an objective seemed like a pipe dream,...

Analysis: It turns out Democrats could keep the Senate

September 4, 2012 For Senate Democrats, the 2012 cycle was supposed to be about exposure to the kind of losses that would imperil their majority. Their goal for the cycle was simple: Hang on to control of the chamber by a thread. Just months ago, such an objective seemed like a pipe dream,...

What Women Want

September 4, 2012 Top strategists from both the Obama and Romney camps are quick to point to suburban women as the pivotal swing vote in this election. Many of these voters find themselves torn about their choice, as evidenced by a focus group of a dozen suburban women in Milwaukee not strongly committed...

The Race Shouldn’t Be Close

August 27, 2012 Just about any analysis of the 2012 presidential election should start with words to the effect that this is a very close race, that close races can go either way, and that many different factors—convention speeches, debates, verbal miscues, overseas conflicts—can change the trajectory of such a race. A decision...

How Romney Can Change the Subject

August 7, 2012 Looking at the broadest numbers in the presidential race, things don’t look too bad for Mitt Romney. In the latest-available trend estimate (a fancy weighted average) of national polls compiled by HuffPost Pollster, Romney leads President Obama by one-tenth of a percentage point, 45.8 percent to 45.7 percent—a statistically insignificant...

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