What Women Want

• By Charlie Cook
• September 4, 2012
• comments

Top strategists from both the Obama and Romney camps are quick to point to suburban women as the pivotal swing vote in this election. Many of these voters find themselves torn about their choice, as evidenced by a focus group of a dozen suburban women in Milwaukee not strongly committed to either candidate. In another one of the brilliant memos that he periodically sends to clients and friends, Democratic pollster Peter Hart synthesized his impressions of the focus group, the fifth of a series sponsored by the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania. Eight of the women were undecided; two leaned toward President Obama, and two toward Mitt Romney. The session took place soon after Romney named Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as his running mate.

In the memo, “A View From the Frontlines,” Hart concluded that in a strange way, two Wisconsin Republicans—controversial Gov. Scott Walker and Ryan—represented what was missing in this presidential election. Not all of the women agreed with Walker’s combative approach to tackling the state’s budget problems by taking on the powerful public-employee unions, but Hart said they viewed the governor as “providing the strong leadership and hard ...

The Race Shouldn’t Be Close

• By Charlie Cook
• August 27, 2012
• comments

Just about any analysis of the 2012 presidential election should start with words to the effect that this is a very close race, that close races can go either way, and that many different factors—convention speeches, debates, verbal miscues, overseas conflicts—can change the trajectory of such a race. A decision by Israel to attack Iran, for example, would certainly scramble things.

Still, this race shouldn’t be as tight as it is. Whether one looks at polling measurements of whether voters think the country is headed in the right direction, at consumer confidence, or at key economic measurements such as growth in gross domestic product, deviations in the unemployment rate, or the change in real personal disposable income, it is puzzling, to say the least, why polls show President Obama and Mitt Romney running neck and neck. Incumbents generally don’t get reelected with numbers like we are seeing today.

Most everyone knows that the economy was in horrific shape, and worsening by the day, when Obama took office. But by the time a president is running for a second term, he pretty much owns the economy. There’s also some history here: Although economists can argue the ...

Obama Campaign Is Brutal This Time

• By Major Garrett
• August 21, 2012
• comments

President Obama's reelection effort isn't the toughest, or most aggressive, in American history.

It only looks and feels that way compared with the gauzy memories most have of the lilt, sunshine, and post-partisan pixie dust of 2008.

Never mind that Obama was tough in the clutch during his primary cage match with then-Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, and unstinting in his criticism of John McCain as a heroic but nevertheless remanufactured jalopy off the George W. Bush assembly line.

Obama did trade in 2008 on aspirations of a political world without petty partisan differences, "tit-for-tat" haggling over wedge issues, or real or imagined flip-flops. Now it often feels as if Obama's reelection talking points strain to rise to tit-for-tat seriousness. What they undoubtedly lack, according to senior advisers to GOP candidate Mitt Romney, is a conviction that limits exist and that the brutal work of attempting to disqualify Romney is just that. Brutal.

Romney advisers believe that Obama's playing a dangerous game, imagining he is more likable than he is and betting that running against his 2008 brand won't discourage voters who genuinely thought Obama was and would be different.

"Obama can't run on what ...

Romney-Ryan Pros and Cons

• By Major Garrett
• August 14, 2012
• comments

Paul Ryan isn't a two-fer in presidential politics. He's a ten-fer. 

Not because it's convenient but because it's true, Ryan brings five potential advantages and five potential hazards to Mitt Romney. Unlike anyone else Romney could have picked, Ryan is multifaceted politically and genuinely memorable on the gritty substance of fiscal policy. Next to Romney, Ryan stands equally balanced between promise and peril.

The decisive factor in which way the Ryan factor tilts - toward advantageous momentum or disorganized defeatism - depends entirely on Romney. The nominee will determine what he makes of or what is made of Ryan.

Yes, Ryan is a big pick with risks and opportunities galore. But Ryan can't turn the epic battle with President Obama into victory or defeat. Only Romney can. Unlike any other potential running mate, Ryan gives Romney a wider array of ingredients for victory and defeat - and a more tuned-in public hungry to see what he makes of this audacious move.

Advantages:

1. Governing. I wrote in early April that Romney would pick Ohio Sen. Rob Portman in large part because I concluded he provided the strongest governing skills. What is known about Romney -- by those closest to ...

How Romney Can Change the Subject

• By Charlie Cook
• August 7, 2012
• comments

Looking at the broadest numbers in the presidential race, things don’t look too bad for Mitt Romney.

In the latest-available trend estimate (a fancy weighted average) of national polls compiled by HuffPost Pollster, Romney leads President Obama by  one-tenth of a percentage point, 45.8 percent to 45.7 percent—a statistically insignificant advantage, but his first lead in the poll average this year. RealClearPolitics.com’s more traditional average of national polls still shows Obama ahead, but by just 1.6 points, 46.6 percent to 45 percent. HuffPost Pollster and RealClearPolitics both show Obama’s job-approval ratings as upside down: HuffPost Pollster finds that 49.2 percent disapprove of the president’s performance, while 45.9 percent approve; RCP has 47.1 percent of respondents disapproving, and 47.9 percent approving.

Yet, from watching the news or listening to chatter about the race, Romney doesn’t seem to be in that strong of a position. Even before his rather impolitic words in London, voters in swing states were being treated to attacks on his career at Bain Capital, news of his offshore personal investments, and calls for him to release more than two years of his income ...