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Dead Heat

August 10, 2004 With a presidential race that looks likely to end in a photo finish, a fight for Senate control that appears increasingly competitive, and -- if you believe Democrats -- a closely divided House that might actually be in play, both parties are dreaming of achieving the political equivalent of a ...

Shell Game

August 3, 2004 Analyzing the battle for the Senate has become a conflict between the objective and the subjective. From an objective point of view, the Senate is a math problem. The Republicans have a 51-seat majority. That means that to take control, the Democrats need to pick up two seats if President ...

Currying Favor

July 27, 2004 Before Sen. John Edwards became John Kerry's running mate, President Bush and the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee had been running neck and neck for an amazingly long time -- nearly three months. In national polls, Bush and Kerry had each been fairly consistently getting the support of about 45 percent ...

The Trail to Triumph

July 20, 2004 In announcing that it raised a record $16 million in hard money in the second quarter, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee continued to pound home the message that House Democrats are well positioned to reclaim the speaker's gavel this year. But navigating the road to victory remains very complicated for ...

Playing For Keeps

July 13, 2004 John Kerry's selection of John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate tells us something very important about the senator from Massachusetts. Sure, Kerry could have chosen someone with more political experience, someone more steeped in the history, details, and nuances of public policy issues, both foreign and domestic. ...

Break the Tie

July 6, 2004 Neither the horse race matchups between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry nor the president's job-approval ratings have moved much in the past three months. Indeed, the Associated Press/Ipsos national surveys, which pegged Bush's overall ratings at 48 percent approval 50 percent disapproval in April, held steady in May and ...

The GOP's Mixed Week

June 29, 2004 Mixed news for the GOP last week: The presidential race remains very close now that President Bush's skid has halted; a GOP runoff in South Carolina has set the stage for the first Senate race centering on trade since a Michigan fight in 1984; and the Republican Senate nominee in ...

Follow the Votes

June 22, 2004 Driven by events both foreign and domestic, President Bush's job-approval rating gyrated wildly during his first three years in office. This year, as Bush's re-election campaign has gotten well under way, another set of numbers important to his political prospects has shifted far less dramatically. We've seen subtle, sometimes almost ...

Restoring Faith

June 15, 2004 Memorial Day weekend and the death of President Reagan have combined to give the 2004 presidential campaign the equivalent of the All-Star break in baseball season. So this is an excellent time to step back and assess where this contest stands. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the presumptive Democratic nominee, ...

Overinterpretation

June 8, 2004 Democrat Stephanie Herseth's slim victory over Republican Larry Diedrich in last week's special election to fill South Dakota's at-large House seat has helped to keep the spring in the step of House Democrats. They were already riding high from Democrat Ben Chandler's victory in the February 17 special election in ...