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Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

September 7, 2004 Matthew Dowd, the chief Bush campaign strategist, made the argument last Monday during the Republican convention that whichever presidential candidate wins two out of a crucial three states -- Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- will probably be the next president. The next day, without knowing about Dowd's prediction, former Clinton ...

Reading the Tea Leaves

August 31, 2004 Depending on which numbers you find most persuasive, you can convince yourself that President Bush is virtually certain to be re-elected or will surely lose in November. The vast majority of political scientists and economists who forecast elections based on computer models will be presenting their papers at the annual ...

Senate Dominoes

August 24, 2004 Even though Senate Democrats had been waiting with bated breath until Sen. Jon Corzine, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, announced he won't seek the governorship of New Jersey if there is a special election this fall, the Senate landscape looks fairly stable. In fact, arguably, the odds have ...

Addition and Subtraction

August 17, 2004 It's become clear that, as many of us predicted, Sen. John Kerry came out of the Democratic convention with only a modest bounce. Indeed, much of the bounce arguably came before the convention and was the result of Kerry selecting Sen. John Edwards as his running mate. The argument made ...

Dead Heat

August 10, 2004 With a presidential race that looks likely to end in a photo finish, a fight for Senate control that appears increasingly competitive, and -- if you believe Democrats -- a closely divided House that might actually be in play, both parties are dreaming of achieving the political equivalent of a ...

Shell Game

August 3, 2004 Analyzing the battle for the Senate has become a conflict between the objective and the subjective. From an objective point of view, the Senate is a math problem. The Republicans have a 51-seat majority. That means that to take control, the Democrats need to pick up two seats if President ...

Currying Favor

July 27, 2004 Before Sen. John Edwards became John Kerry's running mate, President Bush and the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee had been running neck and neck for an amazingly long time -- nearly three months. In national polls, Bush and Kerry had each been fairly consistently getting the support of about 45 percent ...

The Trail to Triumph

July 20, 2004 In announcing that it raised a record $16 million in hard money in the second quarter, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee continued to pound home the message that House Democrats are well positioned to reclaim the speaker's gavel this year. But navigating the road to victory remains very complicated for ...

Playing For Keeps

July 13, 2004 John Kerry's selection of John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate tells us something very important about the senator from Massachusetts. Sure, Kerry could have chosen someone with more political experience, someone more steeped in the history, details, and nuances of public policy issues, both foreign and domestic. ...

Break the Tie

July 6, 2004 Neither the horse race matchups between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry nor the president's job-approval ratings have moved much in the past three months. Indeed, the Associated Press/Ipsos national surveys, which pegged Bush's overall ratings at 48 percent approval 50 percent disapproval in April, held steady in May and ...