Government Executive - Authors - Steven Shepard

Poll: Don't Tie Shutdown to Obamacare Funding

Steven Shepard, National Journal — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 09:58:30 -0400

Americans are divided on who deserves blame for the government shutdown, but one thing's certain: A solid majority thinks it's wrong to demand changes to Obamacare as a price for reopening the government.

The latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll finds little consensus on whom to blame for shutting down the government -- 38 percent say it's the Republicans, 30 percent say it's President Obama, and 19 percent say it's both.

But public opinion is clearer on the House GOP's approach: Overwhelmingly, Americans think Congress should fund the federal government and deal with health care separately; and just as strongly, Americans oppose including GOP priorities -- even those with which they otherwise agree -- in a bargain to raise the debt ceiling.

The results portend political risk for Republicans should they continue to employ their current approach. Americans oppose those tactics, the data show, and if the government breaches its debt limit, triggering broad-based economic turmoil, Americans could hold Republicans responsible.

The current installment of the United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll was conducted Oct. 3-6 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The poll surveyed 1,000 adults, half via cell phone, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Half of the poll's respondents disapprove of Obama's handling of negotiations over the shutdown, according to results from the same survey commissioned by the Pew Research Center. But congressional GOP leaders still score worse on this measure: 69 percent disapprove of the way they are handling the budget negotiations, while only 19 percent approve. Congressional Democrats fall in between: 29 percent approve and 58 percent disapprove.

Even though roughly half those surveyed in the current poll think the administration is mainly or equally to blame for the shutdown, and Obama and Democrats are underwater on the issue, Americans -- by a vast ratio of more than 2-to-1 -- disapprove of the House GOP tying the future of the Affordable Care Act to funding the government or raising the debt ceiling.

The poll shows that 65 percent think "Congress should provide the funding to keep the government operating and deal with the health care issue separately." Just 24 percent think the House "is right to fund the continuing operations of the federal government only if Obama agrees to delay or withdraw his health care plan."

Democrats are nearly unanimous on funding the government, while Republicans favor the House GOP position, though by a narrower margin (50 percent to 38 percent). Among independents, 66 percent think Congress should fund the government, and 23 percent think House Republicans are right.

The overall results are similar to a pre-shutdown United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, which found 27 percent of respondents thought the government should only be funded if the health care law was delayed or stricken, and 63 percent thought Congress should approve the funding and deal with health care separately.

The numbers are similar when it comes to the fight over extending the nation's borrowing limit. Following other questions about ways to reduce the country's deficit and the perceived ramifications of failing to raise the debt limit, poll respondents were told that congressional Republicans "say they will only agree to increase the federal debt ceiling if President Obama accepts their proposal on other issues." Interviewers then asked about four GOP policy proposals—some of which have been found to be popular in previous surveys—but respondents said they opposed including every one of them in a debt-limit agreement by at least a 2-to-1 ratio.

Asked whether a "one-year delay for the implementation of President Obama's health care law" should be included, 31 percent said it should, while 65 percent said it should be dealt with separately. Opposition ran just as strongly for tying "cuts in spending for domestic discretionary programs" and "cuts in Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal entitlement programs" to the debt-ceiling bill, with the poll finding results virtually equivalent to delaying the health care law.

The add-on generating the strongest opposition is also likely the most popular: Only 24 percent think that "a requirement that President Obama authorize the construction of the Keystone pipeline to transport oil from Canada to the U.S." should be part of a debt-limit agreement, while 70 percent think it should be separate. A United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll in July found more than two-thirds of Americans supported building the Keystone XL pipeline, though that question included arguments on both sides of the issue and didn't attach the project to raising the debt ceiling.

(Image via Ken Schulze/Shutterstock.com)

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Poll: Don't Shut Down the Government Over Obamacare

Steven Shepard, National Journal — Tue, 01 Oct 2013 08:38:50 -0400

A new Quinnipiac University poll released on Tuesday shows voters overwhelmingly oppose Congress shutting down the federal government as a way to stop the 2010 health care law from being implemented, matching other public polling that shows that Democrats enter the shutdown with the upper hand.

The Quinnipiac poll also shows Democrats with a 9-point lead on the 2014 House generic ballot -- a historically wide edge, despite the structural advantages that make a Democratic takeover of the House unlikely.

Overall, the poll shows voters are split on the health care law: 45 percent support it, while 47 percent oppose it. Other polls have shown stronger opposition to the law, however.

But despite their overall ambivalence toward the law, voters oppose efforts to defund it. Just 34 percent think Congress should cut off funding, and support is even lower when those defunding efforts are tied to a government shutdown (22 percent) or raising the debt limit (27 percent). A wide majority, 72 percent, oppose shutting down the government to cut off funding the health care law.

That is consistent with other public surveys, including our United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, which have shown Americans opposed to the Republican strategy of allowing the government to shut down if the health care law was not defunded or rolled back, even if they oppose the law itself.

Looking ahead to the 2014 elections, Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot, the poll shows, 43 percent to 34 percent. Four percent of registered voters say they prefer someone else, 2 percent wouldn't vote, and 17 percent are undecided.

The 9-point advantage is the largest Quinnipiac has measured since the spring of 2009, in the first months of the Obama administration. The yawning lead isn't that inconsistent with other Quinnipiac surveys conducted this year: In two July surveys, for example, Democrats held 4- and 5-point leads.

Despite the Democratic advantage on this question, GOP retention of the House seems likely at this stage. The generic ballot has overstated Democratic support in the past, and the Quinnipiac poll is a survey of all registered voters, many of whom won't cast ballots in a midterm election.

The 2014 elections will also be contested on a different playing field. Republicans enjoy a structural advantage following the decade's redistricting processes, and, in the Senate, Democrats have more vulnerable members up this cycle. And though the 1995-96 shutdown is widely attributed to then-President Bill Clinton's reelection, Democrats only picked up two seats in the House -- and lost two Senate seats -- following the 1996 elections.

Other data show that Democrats' success on the generic ballot is more attributable to a collapsing GOP brand than improving images of Democrats and their standard-bearer, President Obama. Quinnipiac finds Obama's approval rating is net-negative: 45 percent approve, and 49 percent disapprove. And congressional Democrats earn a 32-percent approval rating, while three-in-five voters disapprove.

But Republicans in Congress have hit a record low, the poll shows. Only 17 percent of voters approve of the way GOP members of Congress are handling their jobs, while a whopping 74 percent disapprove. Among independents, only 13 percent approve, compared to 76 percent who disapprove.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted Sept. 23-29, surveying 1,497 registered voters. Other polls released this week back up the collapse of the GOP brand. The party's overall favorable rating in a new CNN/ORC International poll is 32 percent, a record low. Only 26 percent approve of the way Republicans in Congress are handling the budget talks in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

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Poll: Country divided over debt ceiling, deficit feduction

Steven Shepard, National Journal — Wed, 16 Jan 2013 09:34:40 -0500

Surveys showed that Americans sided with President Obama and Democrats in last month’s debate over extending the Bush tax cuts for most taxpayers, but according to a new United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, the country is more divided over how to reduce the deficit as the White House and Congress fight over the debt ceiling and sequestration.

Respondents to the new poll were split over whether further efforts to reduce the deficit should include a mixture of tax increases and spending cuts, as Democrats favor, or, as Republicans insist, spending cuts alone. Forty-nine percent favor reducing the deficit through spending cuts alone, while 48 percent prefer both tax increases and spending cuts.

The Congressional Connection Poll was conducted Jan. 10-13 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, which surveyed 1,001 adults. This is the latest in a series of national polls tracking the public’s priorities for Congress -- and its assessment of Washington’s performance -- during most weeks that Congress is in session this year. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

The question of how to cut the federal deficit looms large over Congress this year. The poll informed respondents that the agreement to raise taxes on wealthy Americans “only covered a small portion of the projected deficit over the next 10 years.”

Democrats are more likely to favor tax increases along with spending cuts, preferring the mixture by a 21-point margin, 59 percent to 38 percent. Sixty-five percent of Republicans think the debt should be slashed by spending cuts alone, compared with only 31 percent who favor a mixed approach. Independents are more closely divided: 50 percent favor a mixture of tax increases and spending cuts, and 46 percent want only spending cuts.

The poll shows a slight gender gap, with men preferring only spending cuts, 52 percent to 45 percent, while women prefer the mixture of tax increases and spending cuts, 50 percent to 45 percent.

Respondents also diverged along income levels on this question. Half of those making less than $50,000 a year preferred only spending cuts, compared with 46 percent who preferred the mixture of spending cuts and tax increases. But that mixture was favored by 53 percent of those making $50,000 or more.

The lack of consensus among poll respondents, combined with the polarization driving the results, portends more partisan wrangling over the next few months on Capitol Hill over efforts to raise the federal debt ceiling, avoid drastic spending cuts in domestic and defense programs, and fund the federal government.

In the most recent fight, Congress agreed to raise tax rates -- to 39.5 percent from 35 percent -- for families making more than $450,000 a year. Asked about these new rates, 29 percent of poll respondents said that Congress should have set the threshold for tax increases at $250,000 a year, which was the amount originally preferred by President Obama. Thirty percent thought Congress was correct in raising taxes for income over $450,000. These results are consistent with polls taken before the fiscal-cliff agreement, which indicated strong support for hiking taxes on the wealthy. The actual agreement has been less popular, with most polls taken after Obama signed the bill into law showing Americans divided on the compromise.

The Republican-backed tax proposals are still less popular, the new poll shows. Just 12 percent think Congress should have raised taxes only for income over $1 million, the “Plan B” favored by House Speaker John Boehner. Twenty-three percent think Congress should not have raised taxes at all.

The poll also queried respondents about climate change. According to the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., 2012 was the warmest year on record in the lower 48 states by a wide margin. The poll asked respondents if these records are more likely “the result in changes in the climate related to the burning of fossil fuels,” or if it is more likely “the result of factors like random weather variation.”

Half said that the extreme warmth was more likely random weather variation, compared with only 39 percent who thought it was a result of the burning of fossil fuels. Political partisanship was a fairly accurate predictor of how respondents answered this question: Republicans overwhelmingly say it was random variation, 63 percent to 26 percent. Democrats, on the other hand, lean toward fossil fuels, 50 percent to 41 percent.

Younger Americans were more likely to say that the record temperatures were the result of fossil-fuel consumption, with 54 percent of respondents ages 18-29 saying it was driven by those changes in the climate. Only 32 percent of those 65 and older agreed, however.

(Image via donvictorio / Shutterstock.com)

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Gallup: Signs of an Obama convention bounce

Steven Shepard, National Journal — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 16:38:00 -0400

A slight majority of Americans, 52 percent, surveyed Tuesday through Thursday said that they approve of the job Obama is doing as president, his highest approval rating since early June 2011, a month after the U.S. military killed Osama bin Laden. Forty-three percent disapprove in the latest poll.

In Gallup's horse-race tracking poll, conducted over the past seven evenings among registered voters, Obama leads Romney, 48 percent to 45 percent. That is not a significant change from the previous seven-day sample, when Obama and Romney were statistcally tied, 47 percent to 46 percent respectively. But the wide range of field dates for this tracking poll means that any bounce could lag behind other, more immediate surveys; Friday's release is the first conducted entirely after Romney's acceptance speech last week.

Any bounce for Obama could be fleeting, however, as Friday's latest Bureau of Labor Statistics employment surveys showed meager job growth in August, potentially stepping on this week's Democratic convention here in Charlotte. The vast majority of the interviews for both measures also were conducted before Obama accepted the nomination Thursday night.

The latest figures on Obama's job approval are derived from 1,602 interviews with adult Americans and carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

For the Obama-versus-Romney numbers, Gallup interviewed 3,248 registered voters from Aug. 31 to Sept. 6, for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
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Another national poll shows neck-and-neck race

Steven Shepard, National Journal — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 08:56:53 -0400

Yet another poll confirms that the presidential race remained a virtual tie headed into each party's convention, with a new CBS News survey released Tuesday showing the two candidates separated by an insignificant, razor-thin margin.

The poll, conducted Aug. 22-26, shows the incumbent ticket of President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden leading the presumptive Republican nominees, Mitt Romney and Rep. Paul Ryan, 46 percent to 45 percent. Four percent of registered voters say they won't vote or prefer another candidate, while another 6 percent are undecided.

Each ticket wins about 9-in-10 of their own partisans, while self-identified independent voters are split, 41 percent for Romney to 40 percent for Obama.

The poll shows a significant gender gap: Male voters favor Romney, 49 percent to 41 percent, while female voters prefer Obama, 51 percent to 41 percent.

Each candidate has a net-negative favorability rating in the poll (CBS News offers two undecided options to respondents, often leading to lower favorable and unfavorable percentages than other surveys), according to partial results released by CBS News. And, while Obama is seen by more voters as understanding the problems of people like them, more voters say Romney has a clear plan for creating jobs.

The poll surveyed 1,051 registered voters and carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.

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Tampa mayor: Storm threat greatly diminished

Steven Shepard and Alex Roarty, National Journal — Fri, 24 Aug 2012 09:23:00 -0400

“I don’t think there’s any reason for concern as it relates to cancellation,” Buckhorn told National Journal. “We’re not prepping for an evacuation. We are doing what we do a dozen times a year during hurricane season.”

He added later, “The hysteria has pretty much passed now, and folks are on to other stories.”

Buckhorn spoke with National Journal shortly after taking part in a 5:15 p.m. conference call with RNC and state officials, the second of a twice-daily phone call among the different organizations to coordinate their response to approaching storm.

The possibility that Isaac, which is expected to turn into a Category 1 hurricane by the time it reaches Tampa, could force a change or even outright cancellation of the convention has weighed heavily on the event’s organizers and the approximately 50,000 people expected to attend. RNC officials have maintained throughout that they fully expect the convention -- during which Mitt Romney will officially be nominated as the GOP’s presidential nominee -- to proceed as planned.

“The convention is working closely with our partners at the federal, state, and local levels to monitor the weather, and we have contingency plans in place to ensure the health and safety of convention delegates, guests and visitors, and the Tampa Bay community,” convention spokesman James Davis said. “We are looking forward to a great convention.”

Tampa is still expected to be hit by wind and rain on Monday, and meteorologists caution the city remains at risk.

“They’re not off the hook yet,” said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami. “We haven’t changed anything down here. They still need to watch this closely.”

Buckhorn earlier in the week sparked concern when he suggested that the storm could force the convention to be canceled. But his tone had changed dramatically by Thursday afternoon.

“If you’re not a Floridian, you don’t necessarily appreciate that this is part of our lives,” he said. “The national media gets worked into a frenzy over a storm like this. We deal with it on a regular basis.”

As of 5 p.m. on Thursday, Isaac was still a weak, disorganized system in the Caribbean Sea, approximately 255 miles southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. The storm has turned to the west-northwest, the National Hurricane Center reported, moving at 16 mph. Continuing on that track, Isaac is expected to pass over or near the island of Hispanola on Friday, and Cuba on Saturday.

The exact track of Isaac will determine its strength as it treks across the Caribbean. If the center of circulation passes over land—particularly the mountainous areas of Hispanola and Cubs—that would weaken the system prior to entering the warm Florida Straits, where rapid intensification is possible.

The storm is currently forecast to be near Key West, Fla., by Monday morning, as a hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 75 mph. But long-term forecasts for tropical systems are not very reliable, and the Hurricane Center warns that the storm could be anywhere from just off the east coast of Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico.

Most of the computer models on which forecasters rely take Isaac over or near the west coast of Florida—including Tampa—Monday into Tuesday. Along a track such as that, the city can expect heavy rain, strong winds, and the possibility of coastal flooding of low-lying areas. But whether those conditions materialize—and to what degree—depends largely on the storm's ultimate track.

If the storm remains offshore in the Gulf, most computer models indicate it could threaten the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle west to Louisiana by midweek. That could remind some convention-goers and observers of 2008, when Republicans were forced to cancel the first night of their convention in St. Paul, Minn., as Hurricane Gustav made landfall along the Louisiana Gulf Coast.

Tampa is prone to hurricanes, although not as much as other parts of Florida. Over a 100-year period, the city is struck on average once every nine years, according to the Hurricane Center’s Feltgen. Miami is hit once every five or six years, he said. Of course, the city might also be due: The last hurricane to hit the city was in 2004, when Hurricane Jeanne came ashore.

Tampa was last hit by a major hurricane when a Category 3 storm wreaked havoc in 1921.

The twice-daily phone calls among officials were organized in part to avoid conflicting messages of the hurricane’s hazard to the city and convention attendees. Although Florida officials, including Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican, have said that organizers would ultimately decide if the convention goes on, Scott does have the authority to order an evacuation of the area, according to spokeswoman Julie Roberts.

“The goal of what we’re doing is to have these conversations so the governor doesn’t have to make that stand,” Roberts said. “All stakeholders are looking at it to make the best decision for the RNC.”

Roberts emphasized that a mandatory evacuation is a remote possibility in the case of a direct hit from a severe storm—but such an evacuation appears unlikely at this point. “We’re not talking about a mandatory issue,” she said.]]>

A split verdict on Ryan as Romney's veep choice

Steven Shepard, National Journal — Wed, 22 Aug 2012 10:00:00 -0400

NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released late Tuesday that shows a split verdict on the House member from Wisconsin in his first days in the spotlight.

Obama and Vice President Joe Biden lead Romney and Ryan in the first major poll to include running mates, 48 percent to 44 percent. A combined 8 percent of registered voters said they were undecided or preferred another candidate.

A month ago, in a head-to-head matchup, Obama led Romney, 49 percent to 43 percent.

Thirty-three percent of voters said they have a positive opinion of Ryan, who was named as Romney's running mate on Aug. 11. But just as many, 32 percent, say they have a negative view of him. Voters are also divided when asked if the selection of Ryan makes them more or less likely to vote for a Romney ticket in November.

Obama's personal ratings remained steady from last month: Forty-eight percent view him positively, while 43 percent have a negative opinion of him. Romney's net rating also remained steady, though more voters now have an opinion of him. The percent who view him positively ticked up, from 35 percent last month to 38 percent this month. That change is within the margin of error. The percentage who view him negatively also ticked up, from 40 percent in July, to 44 percent in August.

Pollsters asked voters about the relative negativity of the candidates' campaigns. Twenty percent said Obama was running a negative campaign, compared with 11 percent who held that view of Romney. But a whopping 43 percent said both are running negative campaigns, despite the fact that it was not offered as an option by interviewers. Only 21 percent of voters said neither was running a negative campaign. That is a significant change from August 2008, when roughly as many Americans said the candidates were not running negative campaigns as those who said they were.

Asked which candidate would be better on various attributes and issues, Obama scored best on "being easygoing and likable" (by a margin of +35 points), "dealing with issues of concern to women" (+28 points), and "caring about average people" (+22 points). Obama also held a significant, though less overwhelming, edge on "being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency" (+11 points), "dealing with issues of concern to seniors" (+12 points), and "being a good commander-in-chief" (+7 points).

Romney had 6-percentage-point advantages on "having good ideas for how to improve the economy" and "changing business as usual in Washington." Romney's biggest advantage was on "having executive and managerial skills," 45 percent to 32 percent.

The economy remains a weakness for Obama, but it is not an overwhelming strength for Romney, because voters expressed little confidence in either candidate to turn it around. Fully 44 percent of voters said they are "not at all confident" that Obama "has the right set of goals of policies to improve the economy," but 42 percent said the same about Romney. In fact, more voters said they are "extremely" or "quite" confident in Obama (34 percent) when it comes to the economy than Romney (27 percent).

Half of voters said they think the economy is recovering, while 46 percent said it is not. But a majority, 54 percent, disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy. Overall, 48 percent approve of the job Obama is doing as president, and 49 percent disapprove.

Pollsters asked voters about the proposal to reform Medicare that Ryan has championed in the House, but after a two-sentence explanation, a majority said they had no opinion of the proposal. When arguments made by each candidate were presented -- Obama saying the proposal "would end Medicare as we know it," Romney saying it "would strengthen Medicare and reduce government costs" -- 50 percent said they agreed more with Obama, while 34 percent sided with Romney.

The poll was conducted Aug. 16-20 by a bipartisan team of pollsters, Democrat Peter Hart and Republican Bill McInturff. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters -- 300 of whom were contacted by cell phone and said they did not have landlines -- for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.]]>

Tropical threat emerges for next week's GOP convention

Steven Shepard, National Journal — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 14:45:00 -0400

Planners for the quadrennial convention have long been preparing for such an eventuality that could disrupt their program, but some at the Republican National Committee dismissed the likelihood of a storm when they chose the coastal Tampa Bay area two years ago.

The current threat centers around a tropical wave over the Atlantic Ocean. That system was about 1,100 miles east of the Caribbean Sea as of 8 a.m. Eastern time on Monday, moving westward at 20 to 25 mph.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami says the disturbance now known as "Invest 94L" has an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The Hurricane Center defines a tropical cyclone as "a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation."

Storms with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or weaker are classified as tropical depressions; those with winds between 39 and 73 miles an hour are called tropical storms. A hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph, with higher gusts.

Tropical cyclones are very difficult to predict more than 72 hours in advance -- both in terms of location and intensity -- so forecasts a week out are unreliable. Meteorologists use computer simulations to help guide their forecasts and identify threats in advance to aid preparedness efforts. Some of these models indicate the storm could threaten Florida as early as Sunday, the day before the start of the Tampa convention. Other computer simulations show the storm moving into the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, while others indicate that it could move north and potentially threaten other areas of the U.S. east coast.

There are also some indications that any development of the system could be limited this week by dry air and wind shear at the upper levels of the atmosphere. But the storm is traveling through the Atlantic just a few weeks before the peak of hurricane season in early September. The water that helps fuel tropical systems is at its warmest in late summer, and the final days of August have produced some of the most destructive hurricanes ever to strike the U.S., including Andrew in 1992, Katrina in 2005, and Irene last year.

A convention spokesman declined to comment on whether planners were following any specific threats but said they were confident in their ability to handle any situation, along with the Secret Service and state and federal emergency-management authorities.

"We have a special set of contingency plans in place," said James Davis, communications director for the convention, pointing to ar "strong information center" that could be used to communicate with attendees in the event of an emergency, adding that "their safety is an utmost priority."

Shortly after the RNC awarded the convention to Tampa, Holly Hughes, a committee member from Michigan and chair of the site-selection committee, told National Journal that her group spoke with a panel of weather experts during the decision-making process. Those experts, she said, told her that it had been "nearly 100 years" since a hurricane has struck Tampa directly.

"Weather is always a concern," Hughes said at the time, "but we don't think we're going to get hit with a hurricane."]]>

Americans are glum about direction of country, poll finds

Steven Shepard — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

ABC News/Washington Post poll released early Sunday, President Obama would face an uphill fight for reelection on that day, as Americans retain a glum attitude about the direction of the country.

Just 22 percent of Americans think things are generally going in the right direction, while 74 percent think the country is seriously on the wrong track. Fully 80 percent of Americans describe themselves as "dissatisfied" or "angry" about the way the federal government works, with the nearly one-third of Americans who say they are angry being a record in this survey. Only 10 percent think the economy is in good shape, with 47 percent describing it as "poor."

It all adds up to what the Washington Post calls in a front-page story, "the most difficult reelection environment of any White House incumbent in two decades."

Obama, however, retains a core of support that makes his defeat something less-than-inevitable. He runs neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, among registered voters in the poll, trailing by a single point, 47 percent to 46 percent. Against Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Obama leads, 51 percent to 43 percent. And against beleaguered businessman Herman Cain, Obama leads, 50 percent to 45 percent; the poll was conducted as allegations of sexual harassment emerged against the former head of the National Restaurant Association.

Despite those matchup numbers, Obama still faces significant headwinds: Forty-four percent of Americans approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 53 percent disapprove. On the economy, just 38 percent of Americans approve of Obama's job performance; the president has been below 40 percent on that measure since early in the summer.

The poll was conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 3, surveying 1,004 adults. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent. For the subsample of registered voters -- for the presidential head-to-head matchups -- there were 849 registered voters. Those results carry a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.

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Pew poll shows widespread dissatisfaction with Washington

Steven Shepard — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Only 11 percent of Americans are "basically content" with the federal government today, compared to 22 percent who said they were content this winter. The only other time the percentage of Americans who were content with government dropped below 20 percent was in March 2010, during the final days of the debate over the Democratic health care bill, when 19 percent told Pew's pollsters that they were content.

The percentage of Americans who approve of President Obama has nudged one percent lower over the past month, to 43 percent, and 49 percent now disapprove of the president's job performance, a new high in Pew polling. More troubling for Obama: 38 percent now "very strongly" disapprove of the job he is doing, almost equal to his overall approval rating.

Just 34 percent approve of Obama's handling of the economy, another new low. Fully three-in-five Americans disapprove.

The percentage of Americans who have a favorable impression of the Republican Party is now just 34 percent -- the lowest that Pew has recorded back to 1992. Just 43 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, which is not an all-time record, but it is close (38 percent in April 2010).

Congress tied its all-time low favorability rating: 25 percent. The 70 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of Congress is a new high for Pew polls.

The beat goes on: Republican leaders in Congress earn a woeful 22-percent approval rating, the lowest Pew has ever recorded (going back to 1994). Democratic leaders fare only slightly better at 29 percent (another all-time low).

Even non-governmental, public institutions have been pummeled. Just 41 percent have a favorable opinion of labor unions, tying a record-low set in February 2010. Business corporations score even worse: Only 38 percent have a favorable opinion, easily a new low in Pew polling.

As far as Obama's re-election prospects are concerned, he remains narrowly ahead of a generic Republican opponent but well within the danger zone for incumbents: 43 percent of voters would like to see him re-elected in 2012, while 40 percent would prefer a Republican win the election. Last month, 41 percent said they wanted Obama to win, while 40 percent chose the Republican.

Voters are becoming more aware of the Republican candidates. Fully 87 percent of voters have now heard of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, up from 82 percent in late May. Rep. Michele Bachmann's, R-Minn., name-ID has increased markedly over the past three months, from 54 percent to 84 percent.

But those increases in name-identification can come with a price. Though Bachmann is becoming more well-known, the number of voters who say there is "no chance" they would vote for her is increasing as well. Now, 56 percent of voters who said they have heard of Bachmann say there is no chance she could earn their vote in 2012.

The GOP's new national frontrunner, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, debuts with 71 percent name-recognition among American voters, according to the poll. Of those who are familiar with him, 19 percent say there is a good chance they would vote for him, 28 percent say there is some chance, and 47 percent of voters say there is no chance they would vote for him.

The data indicates that Romney holds a slight advantage in electability: The percentage of voters who have heard of him that say there is no chance he will earn their vote is 42 percent, the lowest of all the GOP contenders.

The Pew poll was conducted August 18-21, surveying 1,509 adults. The margin of error for the main sample is +/- 2.5 percent. There were 1,205 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

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Americans warming to raising debt ceiling, polls find

Steven Shepard — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0400

winning" the debt-ceiling debate, but new polls released this week in the heat of the negotiations show that they're moving public opinion in their direction.

According to a new CBS News poll released late Monday, Americans are now split on raising the debt ceiling, a significant change from last month. Now, 46 percent say the debt limit "should be raised, because otherwise the country could default on its loans, causing severe problems for the U.S. economy." That is up from just 24 percent in June.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans who say the debt ceiling "should not be raised because the country owes too much money already, and raising it would cause long term economic problems," has dropped from an overwhelming, 69-percent majority in June to a bare plurality of 49 percent today.

A USA Today/Gallup poll, also released late Monday, shows that a majority of Americans now believes an economic crisis will result if the two parties fail to reach an agreement by the August 2 deadline declared by the Treasury Department. A narrow plurality, however, doesn't think Social Security and veterans' benefits would be delayed by the failure to reach an agreement.

The CBS News poll also shows that the Democratic argument for a "balanced approach" -- a combination of spending cuts and tax increases -- is gaining popularity. Nearly two-thirds of Americans want a budget and debt agreement that contains a combination of the two, while only 28 percent of Americans want the agreement to contain only cuts to spending.

But the polls contain warning signs for Obama and Democrats. The CBS News poll -- in numbers released earlier Monday -- showed a 48 percent plurality still disapproves of the job Obama is doing on the issue. And while the poll shows Americans are more likely to blame Republicans in Congress (49 percent) than Obama (29 percent) for the current standoff, the parties could share the blame if they fail to reach a deal by the deadline, and that failure leads to severe economic consequences.

Currently, according portions of the USA Today/Gallup poll released early Tuesday, Obama's approval rating stands at just 45 percent -- though that is higher than the approval ratings for Congressional Democrats (33 percent) and Republicans (28 percent).

The CBS News poll was conducted July 15-17, surveying 810 adults. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percent.

The USA Today/Gallup poll was conducted over the same time period. That poll surveyed 1,016 adults, for a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

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Most Americans back debt ceiling compromise

Steven Shepard — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Wording matters when polling on collective bargaining

Steven Shepard — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Tucked inside a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the percentage of Ohio voters who disapprove of Republican Gov. John Kasich rising was an interesting test of rhetoric and messaging around the ongoing debate over public-employee unions in cash-strapped states.

As in Wisconsin, Ohio Republicans have sought to restrict collective bargaining among public employees -- an attempt, Republicans say, to close a significant budget shortfall.

Quinnipiac smartly uses a split sample to test Ohio voters' opinions on the issue, asking roughly half of voters if they support or oppose "limiting collective bargaining for public employees." The other half of the sample is asked if they support or oppose "limiting collective bargaining rights for public employees."

Republican pollster Adam Geller suggested last month that the use of the word "rights" in national polling was making respondents more likely to oppose limits on collective bargaining.

The Quinnipiac poll finds voters are slightly more likely to support limiting collective bargaining when the word "rights" is omitted. When asked about collective bargaining rights, 35% of voters support limiting those rights, while 54% are in opposition. But, asked only about "collective bargaining," the spread is closer: 41% support, 48% oppose.

"Whether collective bargaining is a right or not is in the eye of the beholder, but the word 'right' appears to have an effect on the voters' response," said Quinnipiac University Polling Institute assistant director Peter Brown. "But no matter how the question is asked, voters oppose limits on collective bargaining."

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted March 15-21; 1,384 registered voters were surveyed, for a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent. Margins of error are larger for split samples.

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