Government Executive - Authors - Beth Reinhard

John Kerry: Foreign Leaders Mocked Us Over the Shutdown

Beth Reinhard, National Journal — Thu, 24 Oct 2013 16:48:38 -0400

Just how bad was the shutdown for America's image on the world stage? So bad, says Secretary of State John Kerry, that foreign officials joked about buying him meals.

"I have seen how our allies, our partners and those who wish to challenge us or to do us harm are all sizing us up every day," Kerry said at an event hosted by Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank. "What we do in Washington matters deeply…that's why a self-inflicted wound like the shutdown can never happen again."

Kerry added that the shutdown delayed security aid to Israel. "The dysfunction and the shutdown and the simplistic dialogue that came with it didn't impress anyone," he said.

The federal government was mostly shuttered for 16 days after House Republicans refused to sign off on a budget unless it stripped away funding for President Obama's health care law. The impasse was condemned repeatedly by the Democratic leaders and progressive policymakers at the conference.

"I do love this country, damnit, and this country is in deep trouble," declared former Vice President Al Gore. "What happened down there on Capitol Hill was pathetic."

The shutdown sent the GOP's approval ratings spiraling downward, leading some Democrats to think they might be able to take over the House in the 2014 mid-term election. "If they stay on course Democrats have a good chance," said Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, a former congressman who led the Democratic Party's House campaign committee. "If they reverse course than it's a district by district scenario.

Gerrymandering by GOP-led state legislatures, however, have left few competitive seats. "This is a map that the Republicans designed nationwide," Emanuel said. "If you want to win it back, you have to pick the lock nationwide."

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Rand Paul to Be First Presidential Contender to Hit All Early Primary States

Beth Reinhard, National Journal — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 09:42:21 -0400

Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky will be the first potential 2016 Republican contender to touch base in all three of the states hosting the earliest nominating contests, revealing raw electoral ambitions to surpass his father’s standing as a leader of the tea-party movement.

Paul already visited South Carolina in January, when he addressed a group of Republican business leaders, and he’s planning to return this summer to headline a state GOP event. He’s also scheduled to deliver keynote speeches at the annual dinners hosted by the state Republican parties in Iowa and New Hampshire on May 10 and May 20, respectively. While in New Hampshire, he and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus are planning to hold a roundtable meeting with tea-party activists.

The first-term senator’s pace exceeds those of any of his possible rivals at this early stage. His father, former Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, cultivated a loyal following in the early-primary states but never scored the first-place finish that could have made him a viable candidate. The libertarian ex-lawmaker shied from the conventional political circuit that is leading his son to make the joint appearance with the party chairman, an address at the Reagan Library on May 31, and speeches to large Hispanic and African-American audiences.

“He’s taking his dad’s network and building on top of that,” said GOP strategist Jesse Benton, who helped Paul get elected to the Senate in the tea party wave of 2010. “Early investments in time and attention to the activists and grassroots leaders and other folks crucial to winning early primaries are going to pay big dividends.”

Paul’s early outreach is key, considering that the potential 2016 field includes Republicans with higher national profiles, stronger connections to big donors and less baggage from out-of-the-mainstream policy positions. Among them are Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida — the first possible contender to visit Iowa in mid-November — Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, and Govs. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Chris Christie of New Jersey. The second tier includes former candidate and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who is addressing the Faith and Freedom Coalition in Iowa on April 15; Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who is slated to headline a Republican Party dinner in South Carolina on May 3; and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who will deliver the keynote at the Polk County Republican Party dinner on May 23.

“If you’re running for president, [Paul’s] schedule is exactly the kind you would want to keep,” said Iowa-based Republican consultant Dave Kochel, who steered Mitt Romney to victory in the 2012 caucuses. “Senator Paul has an existing infrastructure from his father, so it makes sense to do some care and feeding of the organizations already in place. The question is, how much can he grow outside the base of committed tea-party activists and usual Ron Paul suspects?”

Paul’s presumed inheritance of his father’s grassroots network is “a double-edged sword," Kochel added. “You couldn’t find anybody who thought Ron Paul was a viable presidential candidate in terms of winning the nomination, so [Rand Paul] has to break that perception sooner rather than later.”

Interviews with Ron Paul supporters in the three early-voting states found them inclined to support his son, and they noted the senator's willingness to cooperate more with the Republican establishment. Some tea-party activists bristled when the younger Paul endorsed Romney and spoke at his nominating convention and, more recently, when he threw his support behind Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a fellow Kentuckian.

“It’s a delicate balancing act for Rand, and quite frankly, there’s a split in the 'liberty movement' right now between those who revere his father and those who are a bit disappointed at what they see as his son compromising or selling out,” said Tom Davis, a state senator in South Carolina and the first elected official in the state to endorse Ron Paul in 2012. “I don’t agree. I think you have to play the game, build alliances, and build relationships with senior members of your party.”

In a clear sign he is looking for a broader audience, Paul recently endorsed legalizing the millions of illegal immigrants living in the U.S. in a speech to the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. He is slated to visit historically black Howard University on April 10.

“These are not places that Republicans go often,” said Paul's chief of staff, Doug Stafford. “If you want to be a national leader, you have to be out there.”

Two recent polls show the 2016 field to be wide open. A Quinnipiac University survey found Paul receiving 15 percent of the Republican vote, trailing Rubio and Ryan. A new McClatchy-Marist pollshowed Christie running the strongest against Democrats former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden.

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Republicans Turn to An Unlikely Name for Inspiration: George W. Bush

Beth Reinhard, National Journal — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 16:00:00 -0500

As Republicans reassess their future in the presidential wilderness, seeking a message and messenger to resonate with a new generation of voters, one unlikely name has popped up as a role model: former President George W. Bush.

Prominent Republicans eager to rebuild the party in the wake of the 2012 election are pointing to Bush’s successful campaigns for Hispanic votes, his efforts to pass immigration reform, and his mantra of “compassionate conservatism.” Bush won 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000 and at least 40 percent in 2004, a high-water mark for a Republican presidential candidate.

In contrast, Romney received only 27 percent of the Latino vote, after taking a hard-line approach to illegal immigration during the Republican presidential primaries, touting “self-deportation” for undocumented workers. In exit polls, a majority of voters said that Romney was out of touch with the American people and that his policies would favor the rich. While Romney beat Obama on questions of leadership, values, and vision, the president trounced him by 63 points when voters were asked which candidate “cares about people like me.”

These signs of wear and tear to the Republican brand are prompting some of Bush’s critics to acknowledge his political foresight and ability to connect with a diverse swath of Americans, although the economic crash and unpopular wars on his watch make it unlikely he will ever be held up as a great president.

“I think I owe an apology to George W. Bush,” wrote Jonah Goldberg, editor-at-large of the conservative National Review Online, after the election. “I still don't like compassionate conservatism or its conception of the role of government. But given the election results, I have to acknowledge that Bush was more prescient than I appreciated at the time.”

The ebb in Bush-bashing could help pave the way for a 2016 presidential bid by his brother, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, another proponent of immigration reform with proven appeal in the Hispanic community. “The Bush family knows how to expand the party and how to win,” said GOP consultant Mark McKinnon, a former George W. Bush political aide, when asked about a possible Jeb Bush campaign. Voter wariness toward a third Bush administration could ease if the former president and his father, who served one term, are remembered less for their failures and more for their advocacy of “compassionate conservatism” and “a kinder, gentler nation.”

Obama wins reelection: how he did it

Beth Reinhard, National Journal — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 23:36:06 -0500

Elected on hope in a season of despair, President Obama won his first term by being the right guy at the right time. He won his second term making Mitt Romney the wrong guy.

Obama turned what could have been a stinging referendum on his economic stewardship into a pass-fail test on Romney’s character. A multi-million dollar media blitz casting aspersions on his extraordinary wealth and successful business career began months before Romney had even earned enough delegates to claim the nomination. In a campaign reminiscent of former President Bush’s takedown of John Kerry’s military record in 2004, Romney was not only stripped of his greatest asset in a race about how to stimulate economic growth, it became a liability.

“Obama won by thoroughly and completely trashing Mitt Romney and his reputation,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. “It is the classic definition of winning ugly.”

But to exclusively blame the attacks from Obama and his super PAC allies for Romney’s defeat overlooks the Republican nominee’s own shortcomings. The smoothly-coiffed, buttoned-down financier struggled to come across as a man of the people, a problem exacerbated by his vow to perpetuate tax breaks for the wealthy, several foot-in-mouth gaffes on the campaign trail, and a secretly recorded video of him at a tony fundraiser dismissing “47 percent” of Americans whom he said pay no income taxes and consider themselves “victims.”

The first African-American president also capitalized on an increasingly diverse electorate and used sophisticated turnout tools to make sure supporters, even casual ones, cast votes. "It's like the demographic changes are making the old rules about unemployment sinking an incumbent obsolete," said Democratic strategist Joe Trippi. "The Obama campaign knew they weren't supposed to get re-elected, so they figured out who they needed to register to vote and turn out to change that."

Again, Romney didn’t help himself amid the changing demographics, alienating the fast-growing Hispanic community by shaking an iron fist at illegal immigrants during the GOP primaries. He would have persevered over his more conservative but politically implausible Republican rivals, anyway -- though as a Mormon who had spearheaded a government-led overhaul of health care as governor of Massachusetts, Romney was ill-suited to tap into the energy of the social conservative and tea party movements.

He accepted the nomination as the least popular nominee from a major party in decades. Wrong guy, wrong time.

Romney badly misread the electorate, assuming the dragging economy would automatically turn voters against the president. Yet many still blamed the recession on former President Bush and were growing accustomed to incremental economic growth. It was a pitiable recovery, but a recovery nonetheless. Offering few details about his economic agenda, Romney didn’t look like a tempting alternative.

“The Romney team was convinced it was a time when likability was a secondary factor,” said Republican strategist John Brabender, who advised Romney’s one-time GOP rival, Rick Santorum. “They forgot they had to give people a reason to vote for Romney, not just against Obama.”

While Romney was still fending off Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, Obama was quietly opening campaign offices all over the country, re-launching his vaunted ground game from 2008. Then the Obama campaign went into overdrive; from the time Romney emerged as the likely nominee in April through most of September, Obama outgunned him on television nearly three times over with predominantly negative ads, according to Kantar Media CMAG. Republican super PACS evened the score but didn’t control the damage. The Obama campaign and its allies branded the former chief executive of Bain Capital as a tax-dodging, job-outsourcing villain who would shred the safety net holding up the elderly and the poor.

Romney also blew silver-platter opportunities, fumbling through a high-profile trip overseas and allowing a cringe-worthy bit by Clint Eastwood to overshadow an otherwise carefully choreographed convention. In contrast, Obama made hay of his accomplishments, touting the auto bailout to overcome resistance from blue-collar workers and brandishing Osama bin Laden's death to shore up his party's traditional vulnerabilities on national security.

Democrats also drove wedges between Romney and two influential swing voting blocs – women and Hispanics – with ads attacking his positions on abortion and immigration. The ads suggesting Romney opposed birth control and abortion even in cases of rape and incest simply weren’t true, but he, not Obama, paid the bigger price.

It wasn’t until after the convention in September that Romney got serious about investing in Spanish-language advertising, and it wasn’t until the October debates that the self-described “severely conservative” candidate narrowed the gender gap by pitching himself as a political moderate. Then came Hurricane Sandy. In the pivotal homestretch, the focus moved off of Romney's momentum and onto Obama’s role as commander in chief.

In the end, the damaged wreaked by the storm on the New Jersey shore was an apt metaphor for what Obama and his allies had done to Romney’s reputation.

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For Michelle Obama, a new image but an old role

Beth Reinhard, National Journal — Tue, 04 Sep 2012 17:19:32 -0400

The New Yorker as an Afroed and armed rebel soldier.

Four years later, she’s now better known as the fashionista first lady who tells us to eat our vegetables.

While President Obama was steadily losing favor over the last four years, his wife was undergoing a successful public makeover. In keeping with tradition, the first lady has mostly steered clear of politics to focus on feel-good projects such as outreach to military families, organic gardening, and efforts to fight childhood obesity. Voters have seen her competing against talk-show hosts Ellen DeGeneres and Jimmy Fallon in friendly push-up contests and gracing a coffee-table book holding a basket overflowing with fresh produce.

But although Michelle Obama’s public image has changed, the goal of her convention speech on Tuesday isn’t much different than it was four years ago. Like Ann Romney did for her husband last week in Tampa, a spouse’s job is to bring out the candidate’s softer side. Nobody knows a husband better than his wife.

“She will help remind voters why they like Barack Obama as a person, and you can’t underestimate how valuable that is,” said Democratic political analyst Mary Anne Marsh. “That is the saving grace of this election, so it’s a big assignment for her.”

Michelle Obama could be particularly persuasive with undecided voters, who tend to be female, and she’s a more familiar figure than Ann Romney. “It will be very hard for Ann Romney to become as well-known and well-liked in what’s left of this campaign as Michelle Obama has over the last five years,” Marsh added.

A Gallup Poll in May found that 66 percent of Americans have a positive view of the first lady, unchanged from two years ago. Her appeal was slightly higher, at 72 percent, at the beginning of her husband’s administration.

During the 2008 campaign, her favorability rating never surpassed 54 percent. In her convention speech, she sought to reassure voters that she shared their patriotism by declaring, “I love this country.” She also tried to bring her husband’s image down to earth, describing how slowly the nervous new father drove when they brought their first daughter home from the hospital.

Voters can expect those kinds of personal touches on Tuesday, but it’s unclear how much they matter to voters who may be out of jobs and patience. Polls show that Americans already like Obama better than Romney but disapprove of his handling of the economy.

“She’ll talk about what a great husband and father he is, and there’s no disputing that, but there’s also no disputing that he’s a failed president,” said Republican consultant Alice Stewart. “The numbers don’t lie. This is not a popularity contest.”
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Convention challenge: VIP speakers who send wrong message

Beth Reinhard, National Journal — Tue, 07 Aug 2012 09:01:30 -0400

Pity the organizers of the Democratic and Republican conventions this year. The host governors -- Bev Perdue in North Carolina and Rick Scott in Florida --happen to be two of the least popular state executives in the country. But geographic protocols demand that they address the convention hall. What to do?

The chosen few devising the lineup for a party’s nominating convention are not unlike wedding planners drawing up the seating chart for a dysfunctional family. There are egos to be stroked, aesthetics to consider -- and dramas to be avoided. Even the uncle no one can stand -- Donald Trump? -- has to sit somewhere.

And just like the bride and groom forced to winnow down their guest lists, convention organizers are faced with limited time slots, especially during prime time when coveted undecided voters may be watching. Political operatives view these fence-sitters like squirrels, prone to being easily startled by the sudden movements and high-pitched rhetoric of, say, Republican firebrands such as former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, Rep. Allen West of Florida, and erstwhile presidential candidate Ron Paul. Building the ideal speakers lineup over several nights is based on a complicated formula that aims to boost favorable views of the nominee and the party’s brand.

“There’s a story you want to tell, a picture you want to paint," said Republican consultant Ed Goeas, who helped coordinate the 2008 convention, giving an artist’s rendition of a baldly political process. “You frame it thematically for that night and then you start looking at the brush strokes. All of it has to fit together to make that picture."

The Republican Party at least partly defused questions over Scott’s role at its convention in Tampa by including him on Monday in an initial list of “headliners." Media outlets have already picked up on the tension between a state party trumpeting the governor’s economic progress and a GOP nominee conveying a much gloomier picture of the economy. By announcing Scott’s presence in the lineup, the GOP may have headed off more speculation about conflict between the two camps. (It goes without saying that if you’re a convention organizer or a wedding planner, conflict is bad.)

“But they didn’t say when he’s going to speak. It could be for five minutes at 5:35 a.m. Eastern Time,’’ noted Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown, whose latest survey found that 52 percent of Florida voters disapprove of Scott’s performance. “Just because you’re speaking doesn’t mean anybody is listening."

Perdue’s disapproval rating is even worse -- 59 percent according to a June survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm in Raleigh. Pegged as the most vulnerable Democratic governor in the country, Perdue announced back in January that she would not seek reelection. Her office said it was up to the party to release her convention schedule.

“I’m sure she’ll give a speech welcoming people. It won’t be prime time," said Democratic strategist Bob Shrum, who helped orchestrate the 2004 convention. (He described his role this way: “I got to make choices that made people unhappy. Thankfully, I usually wasn’t the one who had to tell them.")

As television networks have cut back on their coverage of what are essentially balloon-dropping parties with little news value, convention organizers have had to become even more disciplined about their choices. Once you schedule the keynote speaker, the running mate, the nominee’s spouse, and the nominee, there’s not much time left.

History shows the lineup can make a difference. Pat Buchanan’s fiery speech at the 1992 Republican convention set a menacing tone for the culture wars. The 1980 and 1984 Democratic conventions are remembered most for the rousing speeches given by the late Sen. Edward Kennedy and then-New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, respectively.

And of course, a fresh-faced Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate from Illinois named Barack Obama made an indelible impression at the 2004 convention.

In 2012, the tea party presents the GOP with its biggest opportunity -- and its biggest pitfall. Movement leaders like Palin, West, and Paul are great at rousing crowds. They make good television. But their powers of persuasion with moderate voters (think squirrels!) are suspect.

Palin hasn’t said whether she’s planning to attend, though RNC Chairman Reince Priebus made an obvious gesture on Fox News on Monday by saying he'd like her to speak. The former Alaska governor is currently on a hot endorsement streak, having picked five winning GOP candidates this year. And who could forget her line from the 2008 convention, about the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull?

“The not-so-little secret is that the 800-pound gorilla in the room at the Republican convention is the tea party, and Sarah Palin is as much a leader of that movement as anybody else," said conservative strategist Keith Appell. “Given how well her last convention speech went, it would only help the Romney campaign immensely to involve her at the convention if for no other reason than she will rhetorically beat the living daylights out of Barack Obama."

Like Palin, Ron Paul has a cult following -- and a tendency for straying from the party’s carefully scripted playbook. The libertarian congressman’s antiwar and pro-drug legalization views aren’t what the GOP wants to bring into the American living room, but he makes a persuasive case against government overspending.

Paul's son, Rep. Rand Paul of Kentucky, made the cut in the second list of speakers released on Tuesday. A spokesman for Paul, Jesse Benton, said he “can’t say too much" about Paul’s schedule. In fact, he said nothing.

“Sorry, we're keeping the cards close to the vest," Benton wrote in an e-mail. “All I can say is that our relationship with the RNC [has] been very respectful and constructive."

Sounds just like a family heart-to-heart.

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A 'military vote' that doesn't really exist

Kevin Baron and Beth Reinhard, National Journal — Tue, 29 May 2012 09:01:27 -0400

Myth 1: President Obama will win the military vote because Osama bin Laden was killed under his command.

Myth 2: Mitt Romney will win the military vote because he wants to build up the armed forces to be "so strong no one would ever think to challenge [them]."

Truth: There is no military vote.

Veterans and active-military members vote as voters. When it comes to picking a president, they care about jobs, health insurance, and other kitchen-table issues – just like everyone else.

Consider that veterans narrowly favored Bill Clinton, who some called a draft dodger, over World War II hero George H.W. Bush in 1992, while Bush’s son won the military vote in 2004 by 16 percentage points against decorated Vietnam veteran John Kerry. Republican John McCain, who survived captivity in Vietnam, won the military vote in 2008, but only by 10 percentage points.

“There’s this idea that veterans have a shared outlook and interests, but voting behavior is usually explained by other factors, like party affiliation, ideology and religion,’’ said Benjamin Bishin, an associate professor at the University of California-Riverside, who studied exit poll results from more than 20 elections between 1992 and 2002.

The absence of a cohesive military vote, however, won’t stop the presidential candidates from courting veterans and their families. On Monday, Romney will commemorate Memorial Day with McCain at the Veterans Museum & Memorial Center in San Diego, while the president will mark the holiday at the Vietnam Veterans Memorial in Washington, D.C.

Military voters made up 15 percent of the electorate in 2008, according to exit polls, and in a close race, even a sliver of advantage with one constituency can make the difference. Veterans could be especially influential in toss-up states like Florida, Virginia and North Carolina.

Obama is airing a television ad in those states and four other battlegrounds that references the killing of bin Laden and says "we have a sacred trust" to take care of soldiers when they come home. "It’s not enough just to make as speech about how much we value veterans. It’s not enough just to remember them on Memorial Day," Obama says in the television spot. First Lady Michelle Obama’s pet project is outreach to military families.

"If the economy was more robust, Obama would be doing better among veterans," said Democratic strategist Craig Varoga, who advised Kerry and retired Gen. Wesley Clark when he ran in the 2004 Democratic primary. "It’s a group that will be challenging for him to win, but I think he has a record he should not shy from."

Romney has sought to appeal to military hawks by criticizing the administration’s foreign policy in Iran, withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, and proposed defense spending cuts. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll shows Romney leading Obama by 8 percentage points among military voters.

"We have the potential to pick up more votes from veterans on the economy than on national security," said Washington lobbyist Charlie Black, a Romney adviser who worked on the McCain campaign. "They don't necessarily vote as veterans."

It’s unclear how much traction either candidate will get -- Obama, whose national security record is undercut by high unemployment among veterans, or Romney, whose message of unbridled defense spending clashes with overwhelming support to shrink the military and pull back from foreign conflicts. Americans favor even deeper cuts to defense spending than currently proposed, according to a poll released this month by the Center for Public integrity, the Program for Public Consultation and the Stimson Center, wanting a roughly one-quarter cutback of nuclear arms and ground forces.

Military families, meanwhile, are far more focused on their pocketbooks, according to a November 2011 survey by Blue Star Families, a support organization. Skewing heavily toward women (85 percent) aged 25-44 (60 percent), and caring for minor children (64 percent), more than half of the respondents indicated their top concerns were retirement and benefits, or pay and benefits for those current serving.

The military community does not behave as a voting bloc on many issues. Older veterans -- especially senior-ranking commanders -- were much more opposed than younger and active-duty troops to last year’s repeal of "don’t ask, don’t tell," the law barring openly gay Americans from military service. Even within the services there was a divide -- combat Marines were less likely to support the repeal than Naval officers, for example.

Republicans have long been viewed as stronger on national security issues, dating back to the Democratic Party’s embrace of the Vietnam War protests. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on President Bush’s watch in 2001, which launched the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, reinforced the GOP’s advantage.

But in 2012, it’s domestic issues like health-care fees -- more than party alignment or rhetoric about America’s role as a global leader -- that are driving some military members’ voting, said retired Air Force Col. Mike Hayden, deputy director of government relations for Military Officers Association of America, an advocacy group of active and retired officers.

While conventional wisdom holds that military members historically break Republican, Hayden argued, "I don’t know if that’s the case any more."

Military voters, he claimed, more recently have tended to bend toward whichever party they feel is doing the better job of “keeping the faith” with the troops -- possibly the year’s most repeated phase by lawmakers and senior defense officials.

Currently, both parties are getting high marks for looking out for military families. The White House has made veteran employment a high-profile mission. Congress, meanwhile, rejected many of the Pentagon’s cost-saving and revenue-generating proposals that lawmakers feared would hurt military families. House and Senate authorization bills passed in the last two weeks omitted the Pentagon’s request to increase fees for Tricare, the military’s health plan. Defense department officials argued the raise was overdue since Tricare had not increased fees since 1995. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, the most popular civilian defense leader of the last decade, tried to sell the idea as a practical way to offset spending cuts. The Pentagon also considered charging enrollment fees and raising deductibles for working veterans.

The plan never made it past the Armed Services committees, reflecting election-year worries about military families in both parties.

Republican Ron Paul, the Texas congressman who is no longer actively campaigning for president, has boasted that his call for the U.S. to withdraw from all military conflicts has garnered significant support. In a Memorial Day message to his supporters, he said, "As you take a moment during this Memorial Day weekend to think about the brave soldiers who for hundreds of years have died to protect your unalienable rights, please pause to ask yourself, 'To what end?' "

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In Wisconsin, Romney likely to join battle against public employee unions

Beth Reinhard, National Journal — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 09:31:13 -0400

Mitt Romney should be good to go, ready to pivot toward the general election—and there would be no better place to start than Tuesday’s primary in Wisconsin. The state hasn’t voted for a Republican nominee since Ronald Reagan, but close elections in 2000 and 2004 branded it a battleground. Two years after President Obama solidly won the state with 56 percent of the vote, Republicans staged a comeback by winning the Governor’s Mansion, a Senate seat, and two House seats.

In Wisconsin, moderates—and cheese-heads—rule.

But there’s a problem. This purple, pleasant state has turned into a seething, smoldering hotbed over Gov. Scott Walker’s crackdown on public-sector unions and the subsequent backlash to recall him from office. Tens of thousands of state employees have descended on the Capitol to protest their loss of collective-bargaining rights. One million petition signatures and millions of dollars later, Walker faces a recall election, most likely in June.

So, at a time when it makes sense for Romney to start reaching out to independents and Democrats with his jobs-first-and-foremost message, the vagaries of the primary calendar are forcing him to engage in a heated debate over labor rights.

“No presidential candidate can come to this state and not address the collective-bargaining issue,” said Evan Zeppos, a Milwaukee-based Democratic consultant. “A lot of people here don’t even know there’s a presidential primary going on.”

In another year, Wisconsin would provide the perfect opportunity for Romney to look past his GOP rivals and lunge toward a general-election campaign against Obama.

Consider Romney’s landslide victory in what was supposed to be a competitive race in Illinois more than a week ago, leading prominent Republicans from former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina to call for Republicans to close ranks and focus on taking back the White House. Romney boasts more than twice as many delegates as his closest competitor, Rick Santorum. Newt Gingrich, running a distant third, is downscaling his staff and campaign appearances. Ron Paul is an afterthought.

In a stark example of the perils of a protracted primary campaign, dangers lurk for Romney no matter what approach he takes in Wisconsin. Tone down the rhetoric he used in Michigan, where he condemned “labor stooges,” and he risks ceding the state to Santorum and further alienating the conservative base of his party. Ramp up the labor-bashing and cozy up to Walker, and Romney risks laying the groundwork for a general-election disaster.

Romney’s ever-cautious campaign is taking the latter approach, at least when it comes to the cozying-up part. On a tele-town hall this week with Wisconsin voters, Romney called Walker “an excellent governor” who was right to reduce the bargaining clout of public-employee unions. Benefits have risen beyond the capacity of the state to pay them, Romney said, “and so I support the governor in his effort to rein in the excesses that have permeated the public-sector union and government negotiations over the years.”

Praising Walker’s efforts follows Romney’s strategy of elevating short-term security over long-term risk. Indeed, in Michigan, he tilted so far in that direction that it raised questions about whether he intended to contest the state in November.

A respected statewide poll released this week by the Marquette University Law School shows Romney ahead of Santorum by 8 percentage points, 39 percent to 31 percent. That’s a comfortable but not insurmountable lead, especially in this volatile primary season. It’s hard for Romney to resist basking in Walker’s popularity among Republicans.

“If you’re a Republican who needs to reinforce his conservative credentials, you have every reason on earth to embrace Governor Walker,” said Marquette University pollster Charles Franklin, a visiting professor of law and public policy.

The pressure to pander to Republicans who back Walker’s labor reforms will be most intense on Saturday, when Romney and his rivals are scheduled to appear at a forum sponsored by the conservative Faith and Freedom Coalition in Waukesha County, a GOP stronghold, and at the local party’s Lincoln/Reagan dinner.

“He’s going to have to keep cuddling up to the governor,” Zeppos said. “But when he comes back to this bitterly divided state in September and October, what he said in April and May is going to haunt him.”

One obvious sign that Romney can’t yet afford to pivot toward the general election: the ongoing attack ads against Santorum. The super PAC backing Romney, Restore Our Future, has put up a television spot in Wisconsin that lambastes Santorum as a Washington insider who opposed national right-to-work legislation.

As a former Massachusetts governor trying to overcome a reputation as a moderate, Romney rarely misses an opportunity to outflank a rival on the right.

But he may well regret it. Franklin called Walker “the most polarizing governor in the country,” pointing to polling that shows 86 percent of Republicans approve of the job he is doing, compared with only 49 percent of independents and 20 percent of Democrats.

About one out of four Wisconsin voters in the general election will come from union households who may perceive support for Walker’s budget-slashing crusade as an assault on the working class.

“There are a lot of people in Wisconsin who come from blue-collar families and have some affection for the labor movement, even among Republicans,” said GOP consultant Todd Robert Murphy, who is not aligned with any of the presidential candidates in his state. “If it was a closer race here, I can see why Romney would go after labor, but then he’s just going to have to fix it in the fall.”

Damage control, however, should already be well under way. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll found only 34 percent have a favorable view of Romney, the lowest opinion of a leading presidential candidate in the group’s polling since 1984.

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Cash-strapped Gingrich slashes staff, cuts travel

Beth Reinhard, National Journal — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 09:30:00 -0400

Republican presidential contender Newt Gingrich is laying off one-third of his staff and cutting back on his schedule, but is hoping to stay in the game if Mitt Romney fails to seize the nomination before the convention, a spokesman said late Tuesday.

The news that Gingrich is downscaling, first reported by Politico, comes as no surprise. The former House speaker's campaign is low on cash and operating in the red. His campaign has become an afterthought in the primary contest while Romney has moved steadily toward the nomination and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has tried unsuccessfully to keep pace. After winning only two contests, in South Carolina and his home state of Georgia, Gingrich has collected 135 delegates, according to the Associated Press. Romney has 568, Santorum has 273 and Ron Paul trails with 50 delegates.

Gingrich spokesman Joe DeSantis said about 12 campaign staffers will lose their jobs, and former Campaign Manager Michael Krull has been replaced by Vince Haley, the deputy campaign manager.

Romney is roughly half way to the 1,144 delegates he needs to lock down the nomination, but it could be a long, tough slog ahead. On the off chance that he doesn’t make it, Gingrich wants to be ready for a convention floor fight in Tampa, Fla., where, he argues, the conservative delegates will favor him.

“If Romney doesn’t get to the 1,144 delegates before the convention, we don’t think he will win,’’ DeSantis said. “If we get to that point, everyone will get a fresh look, and we want to position Newt to take advantage of that.’’

DeSantis added that Gingrich will back Romney if the former Massachusetts governor does secure the nomination before the late August convention. Several prominent Republicans have called for the party to rally behind Romney so he can focus on defeating President Obama in the fall. A new CNN poll found six out of 10 Republicans want Gingrich to quit.

“We’re of the belief that an interesting and competitive primary will be hugely beneficial to the Republican Party,’’ DeSantis said.

While Santorum allies have tried to nudge Gingrich aside to make it a two-man race, the CNN poll suggested that a Gingrich exit would help Romney more.

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Santorum's twin southern wins make it a two-man GOP race

Beth Reinhard and Alex Roarty, National Journal — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 09:15:00 -0400

Alabama and Mississippi threw former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum a lifeline Tuesday, knocking Newt Gingrich on his heels and the Republican presidential nomination at least temporarily out of Mitt Romney's reach.

The twin Southern victories will help Santorum frame the contest going forward as a two-man race against Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who has won more states and delegates than any other candidate.

Gingrich, who tried to position himself as the South’s prodigal son after winning South Carolina and his home state of Georgia, will face mounting pressure to exit the race. The former House speaker spent more time in Alabama and Mississippi than any of his rivals. But Santorum has stolen Gingrich's base out from under him, having also defeated him last week in Oklahoma and Tennessee.

“No question, Santorum has emerged as the conservative challenger to Romney, while Romney remains a weak front-runner no matter how you play the expectations,” said Greg Mueller, a conservative Republican strategist. “He is having trouble energizing conservatives when choices like Santorum and Gingrich are in the race.”

A super PAC bankrolled by Romney’s allies heavily outspent Santorum and Gingrich, and the former corporate executive also enjoyed broad support from the party establishment, including all seven of the Republican elected statewide officials in Mississippi.

Santorum is relishing his role as the underdog. “We did it again,’’ Santorum told a cheering crowd in Louisiana, which will vote on March 24. “Who would have ever thought, in the age of media we have in this country today, that ordinary folks across this country can defy the odds day in and day out.’’

Just before the primaries, Santorum and Gingrich released memos arguing that the race is far from over, and the Romney campaign called Santorum’s argument “pure fantasy, or vanity, or both.’’

According to Santorum’s team, the current delegate estimates don’t take into account friendly conservatives who are not locked into voting for Romney and will participate in the forthcoming delegate selection process. If Romney falls short of the 1,144 delegates required to lock down the nomination, Santorum could win at a contested convention.

“The reality is simple: The Romney math doesn’t add up, and he will have a very difficult time ever getting to a majority of the delegates,” the memo said. “The situation is only going to get worse for them and better for Rick Santorum as time passes. Simply put, time is on our side.”

A buoyant Santorum pushed up the deadline in his victory speech Tuesday night. “We’re campaigning everywhere there are delegates because we’re going to win this nomination before the convention,’’ he said. In a sign of his confidence, he'll be in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and Thursday, reaching out to the Hispanic voters who go to the polls on Sunday and will make up a key swing vote in November.

While Romney wasn’t expected to win in the Deep South, polls indicated that neither Alabama nor Mississippi was totally out of his reach, and he boasted a huge financial and organizational advantage over competitors widely perceived as implausible nominees.

Exit polls showed 46 percent of primary voters in Alabama and 50 percent in Mississippi view Romney as the candidate most likely to beat President Obama. Majorities in both states also named the economy as their top priority, the issue the former corporate executive claims as his wheelhouse.

Yet Romney chose not to spend any money on advertising in Mississippi and little in Alabama, leaving it up to his allies' super PAC to fill the airwaves. Restoring Our Future knocked Santorum as a Washington insider in Mississippi but didn’t go after Gingrich at all. Romney also skipped forums attended by Gingrich and Santorum this week in Biloxi, Miss., and Birmingham, Ala.

A case can be made that once again, Romney let a chance to shut down the nomination battle slip through his fingers. To be fair, though, neither state looked friendly to a Mormon candidate from Massachusetts. According to exit polls, evangelical Christians made up 80 percent of primary voters in Missisippi and 74 percent in Alabama.

Exit polls also showed most voters in both states don’t think Romney’s positions are conservative enough. On one specific issue, 70 percent of the voters in Mississippi said abortion should be illegal. That’s a tough crowd for Romney, who once favored abortion rights.

“The demographics in the Deep South do not favor Romney, and with relatively few delegates, there’s not a great return on investment,’’ said Republican consultant John Keast, a former chief of staff to Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker when he served in the House. “He’s tried to play it safe, and I think that’s smart. The risk trumps the rewards.’’

Romney was still expected to pick up delegates from caucuses Tuesday in Hawaii and America Samoa. Before Tuesday’s contests, Romney was the far-and-away leader with 454 delegates, according to the Associated Press. Santorum had 217, Gingrich had 107 and Ron Paul had 47.

“In what should be a rough week he’s still going to pick up some delegates,’’ said Henry Barbour, a Mississippi Republican Party leader and member of the Republican National Committee who backs Romney. “To be clear, Romney was the underdog in Tuesday's primaries.’’

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Romney survives Super Tuesday, but fierce GOP race goes on

Beth Reinhard, National Journal — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 08:08:07 -0500

For Republicans who hoped Super Tuesday would mark the beginning of the end of an increasingly destructive Republican primary, it was not to be.

Mitt Romney won the most states, boosted his delegate haul and eked out a critical victory in Ohio -- yet he failed to vanquish much weaker rivals Tuesday despite his vastly superior resources and organization. Rick Santorum’s victories in Tennessee, Oklahoma and North Dakota will allow him to continue to defend his longshot bid for the White House, while Newt Gingrich stayed above water by taking his home state of Georgia.

Tuesday’s mixed verdict doesn’t change the delegate math that ultimately adds up to a Romney nomination, but the protracted battle gives his scrappy challengers more chances to undercut his conservative credentials. The next states to vote – Kansas on March 10 and Mississippi and Alabama on March 13 – are heavy with the type of socially conservative, Christian voters who have rejected Romney nationwide.

In the view of many Republicans, every day that Romney spends trying to shake his GOP rivals is another day that President Obama gets a free pass.

“He is methodically going to get the nomination, but it’s going to drag on for a while,’’ said Al Cardenas, chairman of the American Conservative Union and a Romney campaign adviser in 2008. “He needs time to raise money for the general election and to repair the damage of a primary, and he can’t do that if it gets too close to the convention. We need to have this thing wrapped up by April.’’

The showdown with Santorum in Ohio once again exposed Romney as the most fragile Republican frontrunner in decades. The former Pennsylvania senator was branded a loser after a humiliating defeat in his 2006 reelection race and has been running a bare-bones campaign that only recently opened a national headquarters. He didn’t even qualify for a full slate of delegates in Ohio or Tennessee, and he wasn’t on the ballot at all in Virginia. Santorum’s survival reveals more about Romney’s struggles to connect with the conservative base of his party than it does about his own strengths.

While Romney could blame previous losses on the strong conservative or evangelical bents of those states or on his own lack of effort, Ohio offered none of those excuses. Romney outspent Santorum 4-to-1. He campaigned hard. Meanwhile, Santorum was widely criticized for an erratic stretch on the campaign trail in which he condemned birth control, called President Obama a “snob’’ for promoting higher education, and said President John F. Kennedy’s famous speech on the separation of church and state made him want to “throw up.’’

“When they thought, oh okay, he’s finally finished, we keep coming back’’ Santorum said Tuesday night. “We are in this thing.’’

Santorum seemed to acknowledge the need to pivot toward the Republican mainstream by naming President Obama’s health care plan – not abortion or gay marriage -- as his top target on Tuesday night.

Romney’s cheerful but stoic speech Tuesday night, meanwhile, hinted at the slog ahead. He offered little in the way of inspiration or reassurance for Republicans who hope the end is near. “Tomorrow we wake up and we start again. And the next day we do the same,’’ he said. “And so it will go, day by day, step by step, door to door, heart to heart. There will be good days and bad days, always long hours and never enough time.’’

Where Romney won on Tuesday, he won on technicalities or special circumstances. He won in Virginia, where Ron Paul was the only other candidate in the ballot, and in Idaho, where he could count on support from a large Mormon population. He won in Massachusetts, where he spent his career and served as governor, and in the neighboring state of Vermont.

Exit polls in Ohio reinforced Romney’s limited appeal among blue-collar voters and conservative Republicans. Santorum was more popular among voters who earned between $30,000 and $100,000, though Romney won by 7 percentage points among voters who make less than $30,000. Santorum was favored by voters who describe themselves as “very conservative,’’ 48 to 33 percent, and who “strongly support’’ the tea party, 41 to 34 percent. Evangelical Christians also leaned toward Santorum, a Catholic who has put abortion and marriage at the center of his campaign, 46 to 34 percent.

In Tennessee, the contrasts were even stronger, Rick Santorum dominated voters making under $50,000, 36 to 25 percent. “Very conservative’’ voters favored him 47 to 19 percent over Romney, and strong tea party supporters by 39 to 22 percent. Romney got half the amount of support from evangelical Christians.

The Romney campaign started making the case that Santorum is a lost cause even before the polls opened on Tuesday, pointing out that he will not be on the ballot in the District of Columbia and won’t compete for a full slate of delegates in Illinois.

“Any one of these issues alone would be a cause for concern, but taken in total they show a campaign that is simply not prepared to take on a Democratic machine that will raise and spend $1 billion,’’ Romney’s political director Rick Beeson wrote of Santorum, adding that it is “virtually impossible for him to catch up to Gov. Romney in delegates, let alone ever get to 1,144.’’

Nobody is asking Obama if the race is over, but it’s been apparent for months that his campaign views Romney as his opponent. The Democratic National Committee sought to make hay of recent polls showing negative views of Romney on the rise in a memo circulated Tuesday morning. The party also sought to diminish Romney’s success by pointing to the millions of dollars his campaign has spent in attack ads.

“While Super Tuesday represents a pivotal moment in the race for the Republican nomination, tonight is hardly the end of the battle for Mitt Romney,’’ DNC Executive Director Patrick Gaspard predicted before the polls closed. “Mitt Romney will emerge from Super Tuesday badly wounded among general election voters – and tonight will be anything but a victory lap.’’

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Romney runs into speed bump named Santorum

Beth Reinhard, National Journal — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 08:08:30 -0500

Rick Santorum's unlikely sweep of three Republican contests on Tuesday punctured the aura of inevitability surrounding Mitt Romney's claim to the nomination and nursed the niggling perception that the frontrunner can't close the deal with conservatives.

Romney won Minnesota and Colorado in his 2008 presidential bid. On Tuesday, he came in third and second place, respectively. He also lost to Santorum in Missouri.

For Santorum, the trifecta reaped bragging rights but no convention delegates, and it may provide only a fleeting burst of money and momentum for his shoestring campaign. For Romney, who ignored Missouri and downplayed Minnesota, the losses are probably little more than speed bumps on his road to the nomination. He is the only GOP contender with the money and organization demanded of a national campaign that could drag on for months.

But the results on Tuesday give his rivals an opening to keep contesting the nomination and fodder to President Obama's re-election campaign as it seeks to dampen enthusiasm for its likely opponent. The results also showed that the conservative grassroots are pulling the strings in this race, despite efforts by the Republican establishment to annoint Romney.

There are still a few twists and turns left in this primary.

"Tonight's victory should put to bed the idea that the Republican nomination for Mitt Romney is inevitable," Stuart Roy, an advisor to a super-PAC backing Santorum, said after the former Pennsylvania senator was declared the winner in Missouri.

The chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, also gloated. "Tonight was a bad night for Mitt Romney, plain and simple,'' she said in a statement after Minnesota also put Santorum on top. "What should have been a night where he began to consolidate Republican support instead has shown that Republicans are reluctant to get behind him.''

And that was before the news broke that Romney also lost Colorado, a state he seized with 60 percent of the vote in 2008 and expected to win again, as evidence by his decision to spend Tuesday night in Denver. Santorum and Romney took turns leading as the results trickled in after midnight, the agonizing wait reminiscent of their neck-and-neck contest in Iowa. Romney was initially named the winner in Iowa by 8 votes. Seventeen days later, the state party said Santorum had surpassed him by 34 votes.

And like in Iowa, Santorum's success on Tuesday suggested that it pays to show up. He spent the most time of all of the candidates in the three states and virtually had Missouri to himself. Newt Gingrich, long viewed as the bigger threat to Romney, did not even qualify for the ballot in that state. His absence there and thin appeal in Minnesota and Colorado will seriously erode his claim that the race is a two-man contest between him and Romney. Giving away his lack of confidence, he spent Tuesday campaigning in Ohio on the first day of early voting.

"The results tonight are bad news for Newt, but not fundamental game changers,'' said Republican strategist Phil Musser, who is supporting Romney. "It's now clear the race will progress well into the spring, and Romney continues to have a laser-like focus on winning where it matters, as opposed to winning where it is nice.''

Tuesday also dealt setbacks to Ron Paul, the libertarian congressman from Texas who has focused on mobilizing supporters in caucus states. He came in second place in Minnesota and fourth place in Colorado.

The one-two-three punch by Santorum felt particularly jarring since he hasn't won a contest since his come-from-behind finish in the Iowa caucus on Jan. 3. Santorum derived little momentum from the caucus, partly because the state party initially declared him a runner-up and partly because he was ill-prepared for the next contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada. On Tuesday, he finally got to deliver the victory speech he was robbed of in Iowa.

"Wow!'' Santorum told a cheering crowd in St. Charles, Missouri, before the Colorado votes were tallied. "Conservatism is alive and well in Missouri and Minnesota.''

Republicans in these states are known for their socially conservative views, and Santorum has stressed his opposition to abortion and the importance of traditional marriage more than any other candidate. In contrast, Romney, a Mormon who once took moderate positions on abortion and gay rights, has struggled to win over the Christian conservatives who dominate many GOP contests.Those voters presumably boosted Santorum to victory, as they did for Gingrich in South Carolina. Even in Florida, where Romney won handily, Gingrich beat him among the most conservative voters and the strongest supporters of the tea party.

Romney had sought to tamp down expectations for Tuesday's contests. His campaign stressed that no delegates would be awarded in any of the three contests and called Missouri "strictly a beauty contest.'' The caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota were only a first step toward naming delegates to the party's national convention, while Missouri's primary was only for show; the state will hold caucuses next month.

In a sign that the Romney campaign saw a Santorum surge looming, it dispatched a top surrogate, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, to attack the former Pennsylvania senator on Monday, after weeks of aggressively targeting Gingrich.

"This was a good night for Rick Santorum,'' Romney said in Denver before the results were tallied in that state, "but I expect to become our nominee with your help.'' He added at the end of his speech, "We've got a long way to go.''

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Paul: Bush administration wrong to bomb Iraq

Beth Reinhard — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

He said the Bush administration, driven by the beat of "war drums,'' was wrong to bomb Iraq because it did not orchestrate the attacks in 2001.

The crowd of roughly 1,000 people didn't react. This National Journal reporter posted Paul's comment on Twitter, leading Bush's former press secretary, Ari Fleischer, to respond: "The man is nuts.''

This is not the first time the Texas congressman has drawn flak for his views of the attacks. He has previously said U.S. military intervention in the Middle East was partly to blame, leading rival Rick Santorum to call him "irresponsible'' in a nationally televised debate in September. Paul drew boos from the audience when he responded.

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