Deficit estimate dips slightly this year, rises in 2011

Federal budget deficit projections for fiscal 2011 are worsening, even as deficit estimates for this fiscal year have dropped just a bit, the Congressional Budget Office reported Thursday.

In its latest economic outlook, CBO said the deficit for 2010 will exceed $1.34 trillion. That's $71 billion below the previous year's total and $27 billion lower than an earlier $1.35 trillion estimate from CBO for the current fiscal year made in March.

Despite that drop, CBO said this fiscal year's deficit relative to the size of the overall economy is expected to be the second-largest shortfall in the past 65 years. Projected to represent 9.1 percent of the gross domestic product, the deficit this fiscal year is expected to be exceeded only by last year's deficit of 9.9 percent of GDP.

And the new report updates and increases the deficit projected for 2011 to $1.07 trillion. That's more than the $980 billion that had been projected in January.

Projections for 2012 and 2013 are a mixed bag, with deficits seen at $665 billion and $525 billion, compared to the $650 billion and $539 billion estimates, respectively, in January.

But an added cause for worry is that the new projections beyond Jan. 1 are based on assumptions that might paint a more optimistic view than otherwise - such as the assumption that the tax cuts enacted under former President George W. Bush set to expire at the end of this year will do so as scheduled.

They also assume no new legislation aimed at keeping the alternative minimum tax from affecting many more taxpayers is enacted.

CBO attributed the continuing large deficits in large part to a combination of weak revenues and elevated spending associated with the economic downturn and the policies implemented in response to it.

Stay up-to-date with federal news alerts and analysis — Sign up for GovExec's email newsletters.
Close [ x ] More from GovExec

Thank you for subscribing to newsletters from
We think these reports might interest you:

  • Going Agile:Revolutionizing Federal Digital Services Delivery

    Here’s one indication that times have changed: Harriet Tubman is going to be the next face of the twenty dollar bill. Another sign of change? The way in which the federal government arrived at that decision.

  • Cyber Risk Report: Cybercrime Trends from 2016

    In our first half 2016 cyber trends report, SurfWatch Labs threat intelligence analysts noted one key theme – the interconnected nature of cybercrime – and the second half of the year saw organizations continuing to struggle with that reality. The number of potential cyber threats, the pool of already compromised information, and the ease of finding increasingly sophisticated cybercriminal tools continued to snowball throughout the year.

  • Featured Content from RSA Conference: Dissed by NIST

    Learn more about the latest draft of the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology guidance document on authentication and lifecycle management.

  • GBC Issue Brief: The Future of 9-1-1

    A Look Into the Next Generation of Emergency Services

  • GBC Survey Report: Securing the Perimeters

    A candid survey on cybersecurity in state and local governments

  • The New IP: Moving Government Agencies Toward the Network of The Future

    Federal IT managers are looking to modernize legacy network infrastructures that are taxed by growing demands from mobile devices, video, vast amounts of data, and more. This issue brief discusses the federal government network landscape, as well as market, financial force drivers for network modernization.

  • eBook: State & Local Cybersecurity

    CenturyLink is committed to helping state and local governments meet their cybersecurity challenges. Towards that end, CenturyLink commissioned a study from the Government Business Council that looked at the perceptions, attitudes and experiences of state and local leaders around the cybersecurity issue. The results were surprising in a number of ways. Learn more about their findings and the ways in which state and local governments can combat cybersecurity threats with this eBook.


When you download a report, your information may be shared with the underwriters of that document.