Analysis: What We Don't Know About a Hillary 2016 Bid

For all of the incessant and on-going speculation about Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign — two days of stories about the Clinton Foundation, stepping to the center of New York City's mayoral debate — one point is worth making. There is nothing — no poll, no historic data, no web indicators — which tells us much about how likely a Clinton victory would be.

It's far too early for polls.

In June of 2009 — slightly farther away from 2012 than 2016 is from now — CNN reported on a poll looking at the Republican presidential primary. The top three Republican candidates: Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney. Trailing those three were Newt Gingrich and Jeb Bush.

Or, even more to the point, a Gallup poll from August 11, 2005. The top Democratic candidates for 2008 were, in order: Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, John Edwards, and Joe Biden. The word "Obama" does not appear on the page.

There are two points to be made from this. The first is that we don't know the candidates that might run. The second is that there's a lot of time for opinion on those candidates to shift.

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