Polls, polls and more polls

Polls, polls and more polls

ccrawford@njdc.com

Rarely have Americans been polled as much as they were in the aftermath of the Senate's Feb. 12 vote to acquit President Clinton of perjury and obstruction charges.

As the country began to absorb the Senate's rejection of the House impeachment charges, nine major news media organizations were taking the public's pulse: CBS, ABC, NBC, CNN, Fox, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report, The Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times.

All nine polls showed continued high job-approval ratings for the President. CBS had the highest, with Clinton enjoying a 73 percent approval rating as compared with a 25 percent disapproval rating. U.S. News had the lowest, reporting a 57/41 percent split over Clinton's approval/disapproval.

But Clinton's personal favorability numbers are a different story: Thirty-five percent told CNN he is honest, 62 percent said he is not; U.S. News found that 25 percent approve of him as a person, while 68 percent disapprove.

U.S. News asked which of the last nine Presidents set the highest moral standard and which set the lowest. Carter (34 percent) and Reagan (27 percent) ranked the highest. Clinton was the runaway "winner" for the bottom spot. He was cited as the lowest by 56 percent of the respondents, beating Nixon's 14 percent and Kennedy's 11 percent.

Has the Fat Lady Sung?

Asked if there is more to come in the scandal saga, 61 percent told CBS pollsters that they expect more developments; 54 percent told CNN that Clinton would commit adultery again if he could lie and get away with it. The six surveys that asked about censure found opposition to the idea; in the CNN poll, 73 percent said "drop it."

On whether criminal charges should be brought against the President, 49 percent told ABC yes, with 20 percent saying they should be brought while he is in office. Fifty-seven percent told the Los Angeles Times that criminal charges should not be brought.

Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr continues to do poorly in the court of public opinion. The Washington Post put his favorable/unfavorable rating at 26 percent/59 percent. But both Fox and CNN found that the public doesn't think that Attorney General Janet Reno should fire him. Although 57 percent told ABC that the law gives an independent counsel too much power, 61 percent told the Los Angeles Times that the law should be renewed.

Girl Talk

CNN reported that 71 percent of the public labeled Republicans in Congress as losers for their roles in the impeachment saga. Seventy-one percent told ABC that Senators based their votes on partisan politics rather than facts. Also finding heavy disapproval of the Senate's handling of the trial were CBS (56 percent), Los Angeles Times (56 percent), and Fox (55 percent).

Fox found Congress's job-approval rating at the lowest point (39 percent) since it started polling, and disapproval (50 percent) at the highest point. The parties' approval numbers seem to be mirror images: CNN found 56 percent/38 percent approval/disapproval of the Democrats, compared to 35 percent/57 percent of the GOP.

Fox on Monica Lewinsky: 27 percent called her an "average girl," while 49 percent labeled her a "tramp."

Hillary Rodham Clinton was the only clear winner in the polls. U.S. News said she was the only person whose poll numbers improved during the year.

How the Votes Are Playing

On the generic test of support for a political party in Congress, CNN found a 14-percentage-point advantage for Democrats; The Washington Post, a 7-point spread; and U.S. News, a 6-point advantage. ABC asked how people would react if their members of Congress had voted for impeachment in the House or conviction in the Senate: Thirty-six percent said they would think less favorably of a Senator who voted to convict (compared with 27 percent who said they would think more favorably). Perhaps because of the passage of time, hostility toward House members who voted for impeachment was less pronounced: Twenty-eight percent said they would view them less favorably; 25 percent, more favorably.

The Los Angeles Times found that GOP voters had the most- pronounced feelings: Forty-four percent of Republicans said they would be less likely to vote for a Senator who voted not to convict, compared with 10 percent who said they would be more likely to vote for the Senator. Interestingly, according to U.S. News, 76 percent of all voters (and 71 percent of Democrats) said the Democratic Party should not make the GOP impeachment tactics an issue in the 2000 election.

While 72 percent told the Los Angeles Times that the increased scrutiny of private lives will cause some of the best candidates not to run for President, 47 percent told U.S. News that a candidate's personal life is now more important to them than it was in the past (compared with 25 percent who say it is less important). Asked by U.S. News if they were more or less likely to vote for candidates who refuse to answer questions about their personal lives, 23 percent said "more likely" and 43 percent said "less likely."

Blame Game

President Clinton has an advantage over congressional Republicans in moving beyond impeachment. ABC asked who was best able to cope with the main problems of the country, and found a record high for Clinton (53 percent) and a record low for Republicans in Congress (30 percent)--compared with the reverse (34 percent/49 percent) in December 1994. Asked by the Los Angeles Times who has the better ideas for the future, Clinton drew 51 percent, compared with 27 percent for the GOP in Congress. And when CNN asked who would be to blame if Clinton and Republicans couldn't work together, 52 percent said the GOP and 34 percent said Clinton.

Carville, Wearing Thin

Clinton partisan James Carville may see himself as the voice of common Americans who love their President, but on David Letterman's Late Show, the audience booed Carville's routine. Letterman piled it on, too, saying, "I'm looking at the most powerful man in the world, the guy who controls the fate of millions and millions and millions of people, and I'm thinking, `This guy's getting jiggy with interns.' " Carville: "I'd rather focus on the goodness of the man . . . but I can't deny that he did a bad thing." After Carville relentlessly defended Clinton, frequently interrupted by disapproving shouts from the studio audience, Letterman asked: "This man is clean as a whistle? He never did a thing?"

Carville: "Of course he's not clean as a whistle . . . [but] he's one hell of a good President." (CBS, 2/11)

Let's Do Lunch

Actor Charlton Heston has told TV Guide he does not think President Clinton has what it takes to make it in Hollywood. Rumors have floated for months that Clinton is considering becoming the first chief executive to go from the White House to Sunset Boulevard. In an interview set to run in the Feb. 20 edition of TV Guide, Heston "scoffs at rumors that Clinton is cooking up a deal to go to work for Steven Spielberg at DreamWorks."

Heston: "A President can't have a boss. He couldn't go around town saying, `Hey, read this script. See what you think.' I mean, it is just awkward." (2/15)

Virginia Isn't for . . .

Virginia state Sen. Emmett W. Hanger Jr., a Republican, "used a President's Day floor speech" on Feb. 15 to blast President Clinton as one who "has brought dishonor" to his office and "embarrassment" to the nation. Reading a "mock resolution," Hanger said that the Virginia Senate should go on record to "express our sense of relief" that Clinton--unlike eight other Presidents--was not born in Virginia. (Richmond Times-Dispatch, 2/16)

Monica Does Montana

When Montana's 113 male legislators arrived at the capitol in Helena on Feb. 13, each one found a rose and a card signed "Love, Monica L." on his desk. The roses were from state Rep. Monica Lindeen, a Democrat--not Monica Lewinsky.

Lindeen: "Women always get all the attention on Valentine's Day. They get flowers and candy. I think guys need a little attention, too." The men "seemed pleased" to receive the roses, "once they realized which Monica really sent" them.

State Rep. Paul Sliter, Republican: "I was a little concerned when it said `Monica L.' I wasn't sure who we were talking about." (Billings Gazette, 2/14)

Quotables "Even if she doesn't run, she will at least have helped to change the subject."--CBS correspondent Bill Plante on talk of Hillary Rodham Clinton's running for the U.S. Senate from New York in 2000 (2/15)

"The Democrats have the advantage on us today. . . . Our message has been completely smothered."--National Republican Campaign Committee Chairman Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, R-Va. (The Beltway Boys, Fox News Channel, 2/13)

"I always walk a lonely path." Rep. John R. Kasich, R-Ohio, in New Hampshire announcing a bid for President. (WMUR-TV, Manchester, 2/15)