Roll Call reports this week that GOP congressional leaders fear an "October surprise" from President Clinton and are "crafting a strategy to prevent" Clinton from "daring" GOPers to shutdown the government on the eve of the November elections.
A top budget adviser to a House GOP leader: "We are privately worried that because of the President's personal scandals he will do everything he can to create distractions by trying to close the government and blame it on us. Rule number one in politics: When you are losing a debate shift the focus. That's our guess on what he will do."
Many GOPers blame the 1995 shutdown for GOP House losses in 1996. A top aide to Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., on the chances that Dems will provoke a shutdown: "I'd bet my front door on it."
GOPers are saying "privately" that Dems will adopt hard-line positions on appropriations bills and refuse to negotiate. GOPers would then either have to "cave" to Dem demands or "be faced with a government shutdown." Either way, Dem cong. leaders and Clinton "could claim victories in fighting for their legislative priorities or paint Republicans as failing to govern responsibly."
Lott asked GOP leaders at a Senate meeting last week to come up with options on how to bring the "appropriations cycle" to a successful conclusion. One GOP House leadership source stressed that the only guaranteed protection for GOPers is to pass all 13 bills immediately and deal with vetoes before the August recess.
Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., on a Democratic plan to force a shutdown: "There's no talk of that at all. We have no desire to perpetrate any kind of financial or fiscal crisis at the end of the year. ... We're going to insist that we have an opportunity to offer our bills. They may see it as obstructionist, but that isn't our desire."
A senior Democratic staffer: "As we view the landscape, we look ahead to October with the understanding that Republicans will be desperate to avoid a shutdown. Therefore our leverage will be at its height this fall. We want to pick smart fights and simply not to allow Republicans to get any political cover."
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