ISIL Has Been Bombing Baghdad for Years

Iraqi civilians gather the morning after a string of car bombs tore through Baghdad last week. Iraqi civilians gather the morning after a string of car bombs tore through Baghdad last week. Karim Kadim/AP

Administration officials have said repeatedly that the United States will launch airstrikes if ISIL advances on Baghdad, but the Sunni militant group has carried out attacks in and around the capital for years.

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria estimates that it carried out 641 total operations in Baghdad in 2013, up from 371 operations in 2012—ranging from car bombs to armed assault to assassinations, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

And ISIL shows no signs of stopping. At least five car bombs rocked Baghdad last week, largely in Shiite neighborhoods, leaving dozens of people dead.

The United States began moving some of its embassy staff from Baghdad in mid-June, but there are still more than 700 soldiers in Iraq—more than half of whom are dedicated to embassy security in the capital city.

Meanwhile, the United States launched a series of airstrikes in the past week against ISIL near Erbil in northern Iraq, as well as dropped humanitarian aid to the Yazidis, a stranded religious minority group. Al-Monitor's Laura Rozen asked State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf last week why strikes were being taken to protect U.S. personnel in Erbil when there have been ISIL bombings for years in Baghdad, including those "that are within hearing and feeling range of the U.S. Embassy." Harf acknowledged that there have been bombings in Baghdad, "but obviously we look at the threat and we look at the picture."

What an escalation of ISIL attacks in and around Baghdad would look like is unclear.

"The thing that we're looking for in Baghdad now really has to be scaled in the fact that ISIS brought its [vehicle borne explosive device] wave campaign to Baghdad in a decidedly concentrated way in February 2013," said Jessica Lewis, research director for the Institute for the Study of War. Lewis spent nearly three years with the Army in Iraq and Afghanistan providing intelligence support.

The widely accepted line of thinking is that ISIL would have a hard time taking Baghdad. Unlike the areas where the terrorist group has control, the capital is dominated by Shiites and Shiite militias, and it has a high number of Iraq's security forces.

"There's not a lot that they can use as a foothold," said Steven Simon, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington. But Simon, who served as the senior director for Middle Middle Eastern and North African affairs in the Obama White House during 2011 and 2012, added that "doesn't mean that they can't wreck and wreak havoc."

And American airstrikes, while useful for hitting precise targets like ISIL artillery, are virtually useless against a suicide or car bomb—the militant group's main mode of attack so far in the capital.

But even if the militant group doesn't capture Baghdad, it could still threaten the capital—and by extension U.S. military personnel—through the Mosul dam. Located in northern Iraq, ISIL and Kurdish forces have been battling over Iraq's largest dam, with the militant group reportedly taking control of the dam last week.

If ISIL decided to break the dam, it would "result in flooding along the Tigris River all the way to Baghdad," according to a 2007 letter from David Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, at the time the U.S. ambassador to Iraq.

Despite the many questions on what ISIL will do next, one thing is very certain: It could make life for the residents of Baghdad much, much worse than it already has.

Lewis said, "My concern for Baghdad is largely framed out of an expectation that we have not seen [ISIL] maximally engaged yet."

Stay up-to-date with federal news alerts and analysis — Sign up for GovExec's email newsletters.
Close [ x ] More from GovExec

Thank you for subscribing to newsletters from
We think these reports might interest you:

  • Forecasting Cloud's Future

    Conversations with Federal, State, and Local Technology Leaders on Cloud-Driven Digital Transformation

  • The Big Data Campaign Trail

    With everyone so focused on security following recent breaches at federal, state and local government and education institutions, there has been little emphasis on the need for better operations. This report breaks down some of the biggest operational challenges in IT management and provides insight into how agencies and leaders can successfully solve some of the biggest lingering government IT issues.

  • Communicating Innovation in Federal Government

    Federal Government spending on ‘obsolete technology’ continues to increase. Supporting the twin pillars of improved digital service delivery for citizens on the one hand, and the increasingly optimized and flexible working practices for federal employees on the other, are neither easy nor inexpensive tasks. This whitepaper explores how federal agencies can leverage the value of existing agency technology assets while offering IT leaders the ability to implement the kind of employee productivity, citizen service improvements and security demanded by federal oversight.

  • IT Transformation Trends: Flash Storage as a Strategic IT Asset

    MIT Technology Review: Flash Storage As a Strategic IT Asset For the first time in decades, IT leaders now consider all-flash storage as a strategic IT asset. IT has become a new operating model that enables self-service with high performance, density and resiliency. It also offers the self-service agility of the public cloud combined with the security, performance, and cost-effectiveness of a private cloud. Download this MIT Technology Review paper to learn more about how all-flash storage is transforming the data center.

  • Ongoing Efforts in Veterans Health Care Modernization

    This report discusses the current state of veterans health care


When you download a report, your information may be shared with the underwriters of that document.