August 31, 1999

Thompson letter on GPRA - Commerce Attachment 1

OPEN GAO RECOMMENDATIONS ON HIGH-RISK AREA: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION PROGRAM

Description of high-risk area: The National Weather Service (NWS) began a nationwide modernization program in the 1980s to upgrade observing systems, such as satellites and radars, and to design and develop advanced forecaster computer workstations. GAO initially designated NWS modernization as high-risk in 1995, including its four major programs: the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), the Next Generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-Next), the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), and the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). These programs collectively cost about $4.5 billion. After substantial delays and cost overruns, three of the four programs are now operational. However, NWS modernization remains on the high-risk list because (1) the final piece--AWIPS–was only recently deployed and then with less than full functionality, and (2) NWS lacks an overall systems architecture.

GAO Report No. and Date	Recommendation
AIMD-94-28 March 11, 1994	The Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere should direct the new single manager or chief architect for modernization to develop a systems architecture that includes all weather forecasting and warning subsystems and be used as a guide in current and future subsystems development.
AIMD-95-132 May 31, 1995	The Secretary of Commerce should direct the NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services to begin analyzing and monitoring system availability data on a site-specific basis for its operational Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) and correct any shortfalls in system availability that this analysis shows.

HIGH-RISK AREA: THE 2000 CENSUS-NO OPEN RECOMMENDATIONS

Description of high-risk area: The decennial census is the nation’s most comprehensive and expensive statistical data-gathering program. Accurate results are critical because, as required by the Constitution, decennial census data are used to reapportion seats in the House of Representatives.

Countless decisions affecting governments, businesses, and private citizens also depend on census data. The Bureau of the Census has made progress in addressing some of the problems that occurred in the 1990 Census. While GAO currently does not have any open recommendations in this high-risk area, GAO is continuing to monitor a number of formidable challenges facing the Bureau in achieving a cost-effective, accurate, and complete census. These challenges include uncertainties over the Bureau’s ability to build a complete and accurate address list and secure an acceptable mail response rate. Further, demographic, attitudinal, and other factors that adversely affected the cost and accuracy of the 1990 Census, such as concerns over privacy, may present an even greater challenge for the Bureau in 2000. In January 1999, the Supreme Court ruled against the Bureau’s planned use of statistical sampling for purposes of congressional reapportionment. As a result, with barely a year’s time until Census Day 2000, the Bureau must now change plans and quickly prepare for and implement coverage improvement enhancements to ensure the most accurate count possible without the use of sampling.