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The mood among House Republicans has grown increasingly somber. They've seen more and more poll results showing GOP incumbents' leads narrowing or disappearing. Democratic lawmakers, meanwhile, are optimistic and hopeful, though they're also cautious, because they recall that in early October 2000 all signs seemed to point toward their retaking the House.

By virtually any measure, the Republican Party's national poll numbers are at least as bad as Democrats' were before their 1994 debacle. For a time, the GOP's national problems did not seem to be spilling over onto individual Republican candidates.

But since the first of the year, we have begun to see evidence that most House Republicans are running 5 to 10 points behind where they would be in the absence of a national undertow. And Republicans aren't being pulled down just in those few races where Democrats are fielding first-tier challengers. The pattern now extends to contests where the Democratic candidates are mediocre at best.

One GOP strategist cautioned, however, that many GOP incumbents may have become complacent because they've won in recent years by margins that were bigger than they should have been, given their districts' political makeup. And strategists in both parties suspect that some of the GOP incumbents most likely to end up losing are those who have not had difficult races in many years, if ever, and may be resistant to doing what it takes to wage a strong campaign.

A year ago, just 18 Republican-held House seats were in play: Two were rated by The Cook Political Report as "toss-ups" and 16 as "lean Republican." To make the 15-seat net gain necessary for taking control of the House, Democrats needed to hold all of their own seats and win 83 percent of the competitive Republican ones. By the first of this year, the number of vulnerable GOP seats was still 18 -- but half were in the more dangerous "toss-up" category.

Now the situation has worsened considerably for the GOP: 36 of its seats are in play, and 11 of them are toss-ups. Democrats need to win just 42 percent of the Republican seats in play to reach the magic number of 218. An additional 18 Republican seats are rated "likely Republican," meaning they are potentially competitive. The consensus among veteran Republican campaign consultants, particularly pollsters, is that if the election were held today, their party would lose the House.

Unfortunately, there are few reliable independent polls conducted in House races. Political reporters and analysts are being deluged with polls conducted for Democratic candidates that tout their gains. And Republican campaigns are releasing few poll results that contradict them.

GOP pollsters, media consultants, and other operatives privately concede that the drumbeat of bad numbers coming in -- but not publicly released -- has become depressing and alarming. What most concerns GOP strategists is that these congressional polls may not fully capture the extent of their party's problems, because other polling shows that Republican voters are disillusioned about the Iraq war, the federal budget deficit, illegal immigration, port security, gasoline prices, the response to Hurricane Katrina, and so on -- and are showing less interest than Democrats in the November election.

Since our Cook Election Preview supplement to the May 6 National Journal, we've moved two contests from "lean Republican" to "toss-up" -- for the open CA-50 seat vacated by Randy (Duke) Cunningham, which first will be filled by a June 6 runoff and then fought over again in November, and the KY-04 rematch between Republican freshman Rep. Geoff Davis and Ken Lucas, his Democratic predecessor.

And 12 contests shifted from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" -- those involving GOP incumbents Richard Pombo (CA-11), Nancy Johnson (CT-05), Anne Northup (KY-03), Jon Porter (NV-03), Jeb Bradley (NH-01), Charles Bass (NH-02), Michael Ferguson (NJ-07), John Sweeney (NY-20), Randy Kuhl (NY-29), Curt Weldon (PA-07), Don Sherwood (PA-10), and Thelma Drake (VA-02).

More and more Republican incumbents previously thought to be in reasonably good shape are in danger.

COMMENTS

• I hope the coming election will not again be a worthless Republicans versus Democrats election. Voters should vote against any incumbent and get rid of the mess in Washington's elected politics. We can do nothing to change the appointee problems that are great but we can begin to get new elected officials. Forget the party and the person -- just get rid of incumbents because they are the source of all the problems. They continue to pass laws that keep themselves in office and take freedom from the American people. They support wire taps that are illegal, they allow the Supreme Court (based on Alito's vote) to stop federal government employees from public ridicule and comment on improper actions of the government, they vote for and continue wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that are unjust and unplanned, they continue the stupid position for China of favored nation status in trade while our balance of payments continues to skyrocket out of control, they continue to support trade with China even as gas prices climb higher and higher because of the increased demand of the Chinese for oil to fuel the tremendous growth in China fostered by the United States, they cannot enforce existing illegal alien laws but want to change all the laws to suit their election needs, they continually have us pay for the disasters of others even when they continue to live and rebuild in flood zones hurricane areas, etc. Congress has taken away the right to fail in America so we have little innovation and no competitive advantage in business anymore -- the risk of failure fosters better actions than seeking the lowest cost mortgage on the highest priced house one can afford. Vote the bums out! Taxpayer Posted May 31, 2006 6:58 AM
• What concerns me is that all you report about is the Republicans’ problems and very seldom do you mention the Democrats’ problems. In reading this article, as many of the others articles on politics that have appeared in GovExec.com over the last year or so, I'm left to believe that Republicans incumbents are the only ones facing a voter rebellion. I assure you that that is not true, as it stands now both parties are in big trouble because a lot of us are fed up with both parties. What has gotten the Republicans in trouble with their base is they are acting like tax and spend Democrats; i.e., spending like there is no tomorrow, passing unconstitutional laws -- McCain/Feingold's so called campaign finance reform which was a sham as it didn't take illegal money out of campaigns -- it only made it harder for incumbents to be voted out of office. Illegal immigration: This one actually belongs to House and Senate Democrats and a few Senate Republicans, not House Republicans who seem to be trying to do what the majority of U.S. citizens want. Abandoning tax reform: It isn't just federal income taxes. It is all taxes that concern me -- local, state and federal. All anyone has to do is look at their phone bill, cable bill etc. and see all the taxes on them. I looked at my phone bill and there were 11 different taxes on it. Also you mentioned gas prices. The politicians holler about corporate profits. At least these companies employ people, they pay dividends to their stockholders etc. but they don't mention the five taxes on crude oil before it hits the refinery and the three additional taxes before it goes to the distributors. Then you add the $0.189/gallon federal tax on gasoline and with whatever the state and local governments charge. It doesn't take a neurosurgeon to figure out why gas is from $3 to more than $4/gallon across the United States. For example, Connecticut has a $.67/gallon tax on gasoline and most the local governments add 1 to 2 cents per gallon as well. So why don't you have an article that actually tells why a lot of us are fed up with all incumbents. GovExec.com reader Posted May 30, 2006 9:26 AM