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The last thing I wanted to do this week was to write yet another "President Bush and the Republicans are going down the toilet, and their majorities are doomed" column. But then two things changed:

First, a sequence of six polls indicated that Bush's popularity may have fallen through what many observers had thought was its floor. Second, some top Republican strategists updated me on how they're calculating that their financial advantages will be sufficient to counter the increasingly anti-GOP political environment.

In the six major national polls released over the past two weeks, the president's job-approval ratings (in chronological order, beginning with the oldest) were 39 percent (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg), 36 percent (Gallup), 35 percent (Pew Research Center), 33 percent (Fox News), 32 percent (CNN/ORC), and 36 percent (NBC News/Wall Street Journal). Although the NBC poll, taken April 21-24, breaks the pattern, Bush has never been so low in that survey before.

The overall downward trend is clear enough to make any Republican candidate or consultant reach for an air-sickness bag. Simply put, there is no reason not to expect that the political environment will be as hostile to Republicans this fall as it was to Democrats in 1994, when a rout cost them control of both chambers of Congress.

So, what could save Republicans? In the Senate, if the tidal wave is gigantic and every seemingly vulnerable incumbent Republican is swept out -- Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island, Conrad Burns in Montana, Mike DeWine in Ohio, and Jim Talent in Missouri -- and if Democrats hold all of their seats, the GOP would still have a one-seat edge.

To take over, Democrats must win the open seat in Tennessee, where the winner of the August 3 Republican primary will face Democratic Rep. Harold Ford. If Republicans hold Tennessee, they hold the Senate. If they have a truly horrible night and lose Tennessee, they lose the Senate.

But should the GOP's chances of picking up the open seat in Minnesota be dismissed so casually? Yes, even though Republicans have an excellent candidate in Rep. Mark Kennedy. And the same is true for the party's chances in Washington state, where the GOP is fielding a formidable challenger to Sen. Maria Cantwell. The fact is, if the political environment is so anti-Republican that five incumbents lose, then the GOP won't be able to gain ground in any Senate race. So, under the Republican apocalypse scenario, the Senate comes down to Tennessee.

In the House, where the GOP is more vulnerable, Democrats don't quite have to run the table, but they must gain 15 seats to take control. In the 35 House races that The Cook Political Report rates as competitive, Democrats need to hold all 11 of their own seats while winning 63 percent (15 out of 24) of the GOP seats. That doesn't sound nearly as daunting as the task facing Senate Democrats, who must win all 13 competitive races.

House Democrats have the momentum; Republicans will have the cash. Although the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has narrowed the cash-on-hand gap to $1 million -- down from $4 million at the end of 2005, Republicans are virtually certain to end up outspending their Democratic counterparts. The National Republican Congressional Committee is also likely to get a $20 million to $25 million transfusion from the Republican National Committee. The DCCC cannot expect similar aid from its less wealthy national committee.

Many of the House contests that Democrats must win are in very expensive suburban districts, where investing $1 million to $2.5 million in party money will probably be necessary to be truly competitive. Can the Democrats possibly keep up if the GOP starts pouring in millions?

Bottom line: Democrats have the political environment on their side, but with so many of their targeted states and districts located in expensive media markets, will they have the money they need to take advantage of the wind at their backs?

COMMENTS

• It is pretty sad when most Americans cannot depend on either party to do the right thing. I have recently changed my political affiliation from Republican to Independent. From here on I will do everything in my voting power to oust out any individual, Democratic or Republican, who does not represent the public consensus of the people voting him/her into office. I urge everyone to change your affiliation to Independent. Being affiliated with any party other than Independent can already be viewed as a calculated vote in any politicians’ poll. Hence, he/she can slack off in voting districts already determined as won by statistics. Become Independent. Doing so leaves both parties blind to your loyalty. Eventually, the Independent masses can make a real impact on those in office by keeping them guessing. Let’s ensure all elected officials, both state and federal, earn their votes by having to satisfy the Independent party vote. Regardless if you are a stanch Republican or Democrat these two parties will always fight and ultimately not agree to do what is right for us Americans as a whole. Get the career politicians out and get representatives in who can turn this country around and direct us in a more sensible manner that will preserve our country’s future. Just Do It! Posted May 2, 2006 11:08 PM
• It is a very sad day for the president; however, the sad rating for the president probably will not transfer over to GOP candidates running for Congress. The Democrats are not fostering quality candidates for anything and the chairman of the party is a joke. The Democrats can make hay while the sun shines but they are not doing it! The Democratic party is stuck in obsolete and cannot change. All the Democratic press centers on Hillary and Dean -- two real losers. Get a front runner candidate for president such as Warner and forget Hillary. Get Dean out and move a quality person to the head of the party. Democrats can win in November but not unless the party makes major changes in its personnel and candidates. I simply will not vote because the Republicans are incompetent and the Democrats offer nothing of value. Taxpayer Posted May 3, 2006 6:57 AM
• Question concerning California's participation in the immigrant strike yesterday. Did Arnold work? Taxpayer Posted May 4, 2006 8:08 AM