About last week
The big question before last week's Senate debate on the fiscal 2002 budget resolution was what was going to happen. And even though the vote has now occurred, we still don't really know.
It is clear, of course, that the Senate passed the budget resolution and that it assumes a $1.3 trillion tax cut. But what that means is still up in the air.
The Senate's passage of its version of the fiscal 2002 budget resolution is not the final step in this part of the process. The House and Senate must still go to conference to reconcile their different versions and take an additional vote to approve that compromise. And both of those steps look to be more difficult than usual this year.
The most important reason is that Republicans and Democrats have not yet worked out their overall differences on how Senate conference committees should be constituted. Republicans contend that Vice President Dick Cheney's tie-breaking vote gives them the right to have a majority in every conference. Democrats are insisting that the 50-50 split in the Senate gives them the right to equal representation.
It is not an understatement to say that this seemingly procedural dispute will be critical to the outcome--not just of this year's budget resolution debate but also to the ultimate success of the Bush administration. The White House has made the tax cut its highest priority. A tax cut, however, cannot be enacted this year without reconciliation instructions ordering it, reconciliation cannot happen without a budget resolution being adopted, and a budget resolution cannot be adopted unless a conference committee agrees to it.
So President Bush's tax cut hinges on the conference committee--and it is not yet clear how the Senate leaders' dispute over the conference committee's makeup will be resolved, or when.
The second reason the compromise process may be more difficult than usual this year is that many Republicans are insisting the Senate's $1.3 trillion tax cut be revised upward in conference to the House's $1.6 trillion. House leaders were particularly adamant that their members would not accept anything less than $1.6 trillion, and some Senate Republicans were saying that the conference committee would be the place where that level would be restored.
It is hard to imagine, however, the Senate approving a $1.6 trillion tax cut at this point. The most important vote during last week's debate on the budget resolution demonstrated that a majority of the Senate does not support a $1.6 trillion tax cut, which will make it difficult for a conference committee to say it represents the Senate's views if it approves a budget resolution compromise with that number.
In fact, because the Senate Budget Committee did not report out a budget resolution at all, let alone one with a $1.6 trillion tax cut (see the April 4 column), the only thing conferees will be able to point to as an indication of the Senate's preferences will be the vote on the floor last week.
This does not mean that a $1.6 trillion tax cut is out of the question. Senators who voted against it last week could be persuaded by the White House or their colleagues to support it next time around. It is also possible that senators who voted against it last week can be convinced to vote for a budget resolution conference report that assumes a $1.6 trillion tax cut just so the process can move ahead-- but such a shift is far from certain.
The third reason is that the detailed Bush Administration budget released Monday is widely expected to make it more difficult for a $1.6 trillion tax cut to be adopted. The size of the tax cut may well be blamed for the spending cuts proposed by the White House, and that may provide some members of Congress with a reason to move toward supporting a smaller reduction.
All of this indicates both that the questions the Senate voted on last week are far from answered. It is going to take some time, perhaps even quite some time, for the final outcome to become clear.
Question of the Week
Last Week's Question. The best answer for the name of a new television drama like NBC's "The West Wing" that uses the federal budget debate as a backdrop was "CR," the abbreviation used in Washington for "continuing resolution" and a play on the name of that other very popular NBC drama. The winner of this week's "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt, who was selected at random from all of the people who submitted CR, is Teresa LaHaie, a budget analyst at the Department of Justice in Washington.
Honorable mention (but no T-shirt) to Cheri Reidy of the Senate Budget Committee for "Hoagland's Heroes," which combines the name of the classic sitcom "Hogan's Heroes" with the name of the staff director of the Senate Budget Committee, Bill Hoagland; Diane Rogers of the Council of Economic Advisors for her suggested takeoff on "Beverly Hills 90210"--Washington, DC, 20510; and Frank Connor, chief of administration at Independence National Park in Philadelphia, for "Flaw and Order."
This Week's Question. President Bush officially sent the details of his fiscal 2002 budget to Congress on Monday. The question: What is the deadline set in the congressional budget process for Congress to vote on the president's budget? (Hint: The answer can be found in a previous edition of "Budget Battles.")
Send your response to scollender@nationaljournal.com by 5 p.m. EDT on Saturday, April 15, 2001. You must include your mailing address so that the shirt can be sent if you win. If there is more than one correct response, then the winner will be selected at random from all of the correct responses.
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