GovernmentExecutive.com

When several thousand Republicans gather in Memphis for a joint meeting of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference and its Midwestern counterpart on March 9 to 12, they're likely to spend a great deal of time agonizing over -- or at least privately debating -- whom their party should nominate for president in 2008. The two front-runners are unpopular with large portions of the party faithful.

A Cook Political Report/RT Strategies national survey taken in December found that among Republicans and independents likely to vote in GOP presidential primaries or caucuses, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani tied for first place with 25 percent each. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich came in next with 12 percent.

He was followed by five senators and five governors, each with 5 percent or less. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush were excluded from the survey because they have ruled out 2008 White House bids.

Although few people would dispute that Giuliani improved the quality of life in New York City, that he showed real leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, and that he has charisma, very few Republican professionals expect their party to nominate someone who supports abortion rights, gun control, and gay rights.

Likewise, Democrats aren't likely to choose as their standard-bearer someone opposed to abortion rights, gun control, and gay rights. These ideological issues are deal-breakers for either party's base, and Giuliani does not pass the GOP's litmus tests.

What about McCain? His relentless advocacy of campaign finance legislation has certainly caused considerable teeth-gnashing among party regulars inside the Beltway. And in the hinterland, many Republicans complain that he is not a "team player."

According to Congressional Quarterly statistics, McCain has voted with the GOP Senate majority more than 80 percent of the time and has backed President Bush at least 90 percent of the time when the administration has taken a strong position. That record suggests that McCain is a "real Republican" who should be acceptable to most within the party.

But National Journal's ratings show that McCain's voting record on economic issues was more conservative than just 49 percent of senators in 2003, 49 percent in 2004, and 52 percent in 2005. On social issues, he was more conservative than 59 percent in 2003, 55 percent in 2004, and 64 percent in 2005.

On foreign policy, he was more conservative than 54 percent in 2003, 49 percent in 2004, and 54 percent in 2005. By those yardsticks, McCain is slightly to the right of center, more liberal than most GOP senators but well positioned for a general election.

Among conservatives and GOP regulars, reservations about McCain have more to do with style and personality than substance. Republicans have long taken a dim view of mavericks. And it is not lost on conservatives that McCain has been the darling of the much-loathed mainstream media for the better part of a decade.

The truth is, McCain desperately needs Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to do very well as her party heads toward selecting its 2008 presidential nominee. McCain will have his best shot at winning the GOP nomination if his party becomes convinced that Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

Faced with the possibility of a President Hillary Clinton, many GOP regulars, even those who loathe McCain, would think that he is the only Republican who could keep her out of the White House. Even so, some Republicans would rather lose the White House to a relatively moderate Democrat, such as Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, or Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, than nominate someone they don't trust.

If Clinton's nomination ends up looking less than inevitable or less than intimidating, Republicans might find it easy to turn down the maverick McCain.

COMMENTS

• Geez. Get a grip guys. Stick with the subject matter. There's more than two parties to vote for. Really. McCain is a hot head with a temper. And you wantta let him have access to the big red button?! Strike one. He'll turn on his own and is totally unpredictable. Strike two. He's run his mouth about how he wants to defeat the NRA's resistance to strict gun control. Bad move. They're extremely well organized. And they vote! Strike three. As for Hillary. Yeah right. Why don't the Democrats just hand the election to the Republicans. She'll only pull 35 percent to 38 percent of the vote. Maybe 40 percent if Bill keeps his head down and his mouth shut. Hillary's a woman. Like it or not, a lot of people have heartburn with that. Putting a qualified woman in the White House is one thing. Hillary is another. Strike one. Hillary has a lot of baggage from her previous time in the White House. It'll be a real mud slinging contest. Strike two. And last but not least, Slick Willy will be back in the White House as first something or other. That's a big strike three. Now, find a candidate who'll say these three things. (1) Abortion is legal. It's your right. How you exercise that right is up to the individual. Period! Now keep your religion out of it. (2) Gun control is nothing more than a feel good expression. A crime is committed by individuals. Not lifeless objects. And the second amendment means what it says. It really is a right. Get rid of the Sara Brady smoke and mirrors types and enforce the current guy laws. (3) American citizens by any other name are still American citizens. Get over it and keep your religion out of it. Like it or not. That's the winning ticket. Now deal with it. Art Doss Posted March 5, 2006 11:39 PM
• HR Spec. Well said. I completely agree. If both parties can't work together then they aren't working for the majority and therefore their customer service sucks. The Republicans dislike of McClain due to his standing on his own two feet says a lot. Someone please tell me why all members have to vote as only a few top dogs in the party decide. I think it's high time we clean house, set new laws which gives power back to the voters. Out with lobbyists, out with members voting themselves raises and benefits, change their retirement back to Social Security or federal retirement with same limits, make laws which allow the people to make more decisions (we have computers), provide quick ways to oust politicians who don't perform and those who break the laws will be held accountable and lose benefits (retirement). I don't know about you but I'm tired of promises made only to get in office. When I go to the polls, I'm tired of having to choose between a stupid rich kid with no idea of what it's like to really do a days work or serve on the front military lines and another rich kid. I want to see a new law that says that if our president and his buddies decide to go to war that their kids have to serve on the front lines. If they really believe in the war they should be willing to sacrifice their own blood. I believe new laws should go into effect which requires limited appeal time of convicted felons on death row. No more 34 years of cost and expense and then killing a 78 year old. It's not humane to the convicted or fair to the taxpayer. GovExec.com reader Posted March 1, 2006 8:29 AM
• I am so sick of politics as usual when the country is in such turmoil. How about a bi-partisan ticket of McCain/Clinton or Clinton/McCain and spend the 2007 political season working to solve America's problems rather than waste time and money that could be better spent. If Shimon Peres and Ariel Sharon can work together to save Israel it is time for Americans to lay down the political weapons, come together in a bipartisan fashion, and start the hard work of reconstructing and rebuilding America. The country is more important that the parties -- it is time for us to realize this and move forward. HR Specialist GovExec.com reader Posted February 28, 2006 7:14 AM